Monday’s featured NBA DFS tournaments lock at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including James Harden, Ivica Zubac, and John Collins in Miami and discount dandy du jour Egor Demin looking like a priority. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Monday, December 1
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Egor Demin: Nets vs. Hornets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 26.65 | FanDuel: 25.69
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 55.3% | FanDuel: 44.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $4,500
Rookie Egor Demin sat out the last game, which was a bit of a surprise considering he is just 19 years old, and of anyone in the league, he would likely be the most equipped to play on a back-to-back, though he was coming off a career-high 30.5 minutes.
Over his last four games, Demin began to break out, averaging 28.8 minutes and 12.8 field goal attempts, but his 38.8% success rate was shaky. Hee notched 12.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.6 stocks (combined steals and blocks) in this timeframe. This should be a fun game with both Brooklyn and Charlotte not prioritizing defense and playing at an above-average pace. Of course, the teams are not overly effective on offense, which is why this game has a semi-sedate 227.5 total.
Sadly, LaMelo Ball has a soft-ish minutes cap of around 28 while also not playing on consecutive days in an effort to keep him otherwise available. This is a tremendous matchup, though his salary has him on the outside looking in for DFS purposes. Brandon Miller is appealing as a differentiation play on DraftKings ($6,400, 20.5%) and FanDuel ($6,600, 9.1%) since he could approach 20 field goal attempts in his 28 to 30 minutes, and if his shot is falling, he could drop a 40 burger.
Moussa Diabate, Nicolas Claxton and Noah Clowney have utility on DraftKings, while Michael Porter Jr. is intriguing on FanDuel. Keep in mind that DraftKings elected to go with the six games tipping off in the 7 o’clock hour, while FanDuel included the three evening games for an 18-team player pool.
Looking for some Monday Night Football DFS analysis, check out Stokastic’s F-R-E-E article here.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
James Harden: Clippers at Heat
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 50.15 | FanDuel: 47.24
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 26.8% | FanDuel: 18.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $9,800
James Harden is an interesting option at twin $9,800 salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel. Kawhi Leonard did play in the last back-to-back, though he did not exceed 29 minutes in the four games since his 10-game injury layoff. Leonard attempted 24 and 20 shots over the last two games, with 13 free-throw attempts in these matchups. That gives Harden another person that can convert his passes into assists, and it also takes some of the defensive attention away from The Beard.
Miami is playing at a ridiculous pace this season with 106.1 possessions per 48 minutes. That is the highest rate in league history, and the Heat accomplished it by eschewing double-screens as well as pick-and-roll sets, with by far the lowest rates ever recorded. Essentially coach Erik Spoelstra has the offense essentially looking like the inverse of the “amoeba” defense employed by Jerry Tarkanian and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the early 90s. While not an exact match, the philosophy on offense is for the Heat players to continually move off ball to open spaces on the court, forgoing actual offensive sets and doing everything ad hoc.
This is causing defenses to not only be out of place, but the lack of a structured offense makes double-teams and help defense very difficult since there is little pattern to the offense. Much like teams figured out how to counter Victor Wembanyama earlier this season, adjustments will be made — though the return of Tyler Herro adds another layer of advantage for Miami, who has capable passers and scorers at every position.
Brook Lopez did not play in the last three games, with Nicolas Batum getting the backup center minutes and John Collins sliding down to be the nominal five for the other minutes when Ivica Zubac is on the bench. After winning three of the first five games, Los Angeles lost 10 of the last 12, so the strategy of trying to save Zubac from excessive minutes to facilitate fresher legs for the playoffs has been mothballed.
The increased minutes for Zubac and Collins have them in the mix on DraftKings and FanDuel, though Harden is more appealing on DraftKings, with Nikola Jokic being the priority spend-up on FanDuel’s more expansive slate.
Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Austin Reaves: Lakers vs. Suns
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 39.33 | FanDuel: 38.19
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: n/a | FanDuel: 2.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,800
LeBron James was out last night for injury management, though he is expected to start tonight. This makes things crowded for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but there are enough questions that may not be resolved before the six early games lock, so planning for some flexibility to get some of the underrepresented players is a savvy strategy.
That includes the trio of Lakers, as well as a potential punt option in the frontcourt, with Deandre Ayton leaving last night’s game due to knee soreness. Marcus Smart missed the last two games, so he may not be available for tonight either. Mark Williams was out for the second leg of the weekend back-to-back, though he is expected to start against the team that rescinded his trade last year.
Dallas has a lot of moving parts with PJ Washington and Brandon Williams questionable, but Anthony Davis expects to play tonight in Denver. Daniel Gafford missed the last game, and he is doubtful for tonight due to an ankle issue, so it will be interesting to see how the Mavericks frontcourt shakes out.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Egor Demin to have fewer than 9.5 rebounds + assists (RA) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Demin is currently listed at Hard Rock at -105 for under 9.5 RA, with popular books DraftKings and FanDuel all the way down to a -129 and -138, leading to NEGATIVE 4.3% and 6.1% expected ROIs. Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.
In his last four games with Michael Porter Jr., Demin averaged 8.3 RA, posting one game of more than nine. This wager is likely to come down to the wire, though the math is on our side for the current Hard Rock opportunity.
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