Tuesday sees the NBA action locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including De’Aaron Fox, Michael Porter Jr. and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, November 18
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
De’Aaron Fox: Spurs vs. Grizzlies
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 44.76 | FanDuel: 42.98
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 55.1% | FanDuel: 35.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,300
On a sad note for NBA fans and those in season-long leagues, Victor Wembanyama is likely to be out for a month with a strained left calf. What is a bummer for most things is actually a boon for DFS since it will take time for the salary algorithms to react to the new San Antonio rotation.
Stephon Castle (hip) is out tonight, suffering an injury on Wednesday against Sacramento. Rookie Dylan Harper missed the last seven games and will likely be out for two more weeks with his own calf injury. One bright spot is that De’Aaron Fox looked good in his five games this season, averaging 34.4 minutes and 16.8 field goal attempts with a stellar 51.2% conversion rate. This worked out to 22.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.2 stocks (combined steals and blocks).
Julian Champagnie now has a clear path to minutes, and there is a good possibility he will rejoin the first five after coming off the bench the last five games. Wembanyama is vacating 26.2 points, 18.4 field goal attempts and 12.9 rebounds, which bodes well for Devin Vassell to gain scoring opportunities, while Luke Kornet gets a starting gig against the patchwork Memphis Grizzlies.
Ja Morant is expected to miss at least two weeks with a strained calf, plus Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippin Jr. were already out, which means some combination of Vince Williams Jr., Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer will be rotating “point guard” duties as part of a group effort to keep the offense cycling through sets. Williams is the punt du jour across the DFS industry, with Jaren Jackson Jr. popping in models as he should have more scoring opportunities.
Zach Edey returned, though he is still building up his conditioning. That said, he makes Jock Landale irrelevant, and it seems like the team just doesn’t want to give Santi Aldama big minutes, regardless of circumstances or whoever is the coach.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Michael Porter Jr.: Nets vs. Celtics
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 41.12 | FanDuel: 38.44
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 60.6% | FanDuel: 26.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,900
DraftKings is excluding the two late games, rolling out an eight-team player pool. That has Michael Porter Jr. at wildly different popularity levels when compared to the blue site.
Across the last six games, five without Cam Thomas (hamstring), Porter averaged 33.2 minutes and 18.3 field goal attempts with a respectable 48.2% conversion rate. We all know he never met a shot he didn’t like, and he is a capable rebounder; it is his defense that gets him in trouble. That is not a problem for Brooklyn, with the Nets looking to lose in the midst of an organizational reset. In this stretch, Porter averaged 27.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and nearly one stock.
Boston is better than anticipated without Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis, though the team lacks an on-ball defensive stopper and is happy to run. Nic Claxton is a serviceable center on DraftKings, with Tyrese Martin, Terance Mann and Egor Demin potential discount dandies. None of whom need to be considered on FanDuel.
Derrick White is one of the more popular plays on DraftKings ($7,200, 41.9%) and is also in play on FanDuel ($7,600, 24.7%), while Jaylen Brown is projected to be on around one in five rosters across both sites.
Both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, so tune in for up-to-date expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jerami Grant: Trail Blazers vs. Suns
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 32.1 | FanDuel: 31.33
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: n/a | FanDuel: 37.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $5,700
Jrue Holiday is doubtful with a calf injury and expectations are that Jerami Grant will remain in the starting lineup as interim coach Tiago Splitter moves things around.
Shaedon Sharpe and Deni Avdija will run the offense, which provides them with additional touches and opportunities for fantasy points. The Portland defense dropped off dramatically over the last five games, allowing 124.2 points per 100 possessions.
Grant averaged 18.2 points per game off the bench, and he should play low-30s minutes as a starter. He chips in a little of everything across the box score, so if things fall in his favor, he has a chance to flirt with the 40-fantasy point plateau.
Devin Booker is a fun tournament target on FanDuel, along with Dillon Brooks, who is getting more shots up with Jalen Green out of commission. Grayson Allen is also out, which secures minutes for Collin Gillespie and opens the door for Jordan Goodwin.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Vince Williams Jr. to have more than 4.5 rebounds tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Williams is currently listed at +120 on Hard Rock, which is a festive 5.5% expected ROI when considering the “true odds” of +109. Several other books have this at -115, and that leads to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
Williams is a solid rebounder with 7.9 per 36 minutes. He had five or more rebounds in three of his last four games, including six in just 14.3 minutes and nine in 24.3 off the bench. Expectations are that he will start for the short-handed Grizzlies, and there is room for a couple more minutes on his 25.6 baseline projection, which has him looking at 4.67 rebounds.
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