Monday’s NBA DFS action tips off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including potential core plays such as Pascal Siakam, tournament targets like De’Aaron Fox and more! These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Monday, December 8
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
De’Aaron Fox: Spurs at Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 40.45 | FanDuel: 39.33
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 8.3% | FanDuel: 53.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $8,300
The $1,100 salary difference is leading to a dramatically wild swing in De’Aaron Fox’s projected popularity tonight between FanDuel and DraftKings. This season, in 248 minutes alongside Victor Wembanyama, Fox is averaging around 1.05 fantasy points per minute. In 799 minutes without the generational talent on the court, Fox is producing 1.21 fantasy points per minute.
In the 10 games after Wembanyama was sidelined with his injury, Fox averaged 32.4 minutes and 18.4 field goal attempts with a 48.9% success rate. This resulted in 26.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.8 stocks (combined steals and blocks). In this stretch, Fox had multiple stocks in five games, which gives him the bump on FanDuel, where those stats are awarded 3 fantasy points each. On the flipside, he had just two double-doubles in this timeframe, which hurts him on DraftKings as that milestone earns bonus points.
Fox is absolutely a core play on FanDuel, and he is a fine tournament differentiation piece on DraftKings. This is a desirable matchup with the Pelicans playing at a top-5 pace and a bottom-5 defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games.
Keldon Johnson has an inverted salary between the two sites when compared to Fox. The wing has significantly more appeal on DraftKings ($5,200, 23.9%) than FanDuel ($5,600, 13.5%) given the $400 savings. Luke Kornet (ankle) is all over the place with his effectiveness and results, but he is in play for tournaments. If he is out, then we will be left with the same guessing game when choosing between Bismack Biyombo (who started in place of Kornet, playing 10.4 minutes) and veteran post Kelly Olynyk (who saw only 5.8 as a reserve). Whoever starts would theoretically have the edge, though the team also used Jeremy Sochan (24.9 minutes) and Harrison Barnes (28.7) as the de facto center for the 30-ish minutes when Biyombo and Olynyk were on the sidelines.
Barnes chips in with a little bit of everything, so if he gets a few breaks, he could have a useful DFS score on the short slate, regardless of what transpires at center, and Sochan is a wild card as well. Rookie Dylan Harper covers all the minutes when Fox is on the bench, and they also play alongside each other for 8 to 12 minutes per game.
The injury to Zion Williamson frees up a lot of usage, shots and frontcourt minutes. While nobody is particularly cheap since Williamson already missed time, Trey Murphy III, Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears and Saddiq Bey all have reasonable salaries that they can outperform.
Looking for Monday Night Football NFL DFS analysis, check out this F-R-E-E article here.
Don’t leave value on the table. Unlock +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL of Portfolio EV — visit the Portfolio Betting page now!
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Pascal Siakam: Pacers vs. Kings
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 42.18 | FanDuel: 41.27
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 40.4% | FanDuel: 55.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $8,700
Pascal Siakam had five games of 40-plus DraftKings fantasy points in his last eight, including a 50-burger against Chicago in his last appearance. The Pacers are wracked with injuries, missing Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin and now Ben Sheppard, plus Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell also lost games at various points this season. On top of that, Myles Turner is now in Milwaukee.
Despite all of these misfortunes, Siakam has helped hold things together, and while Indiana will likely have a bottom-5 record by the end of the season, the Pacers are only half a game worse than Sacramento. Nembhard and Mathurin join Siakam as foundational building blocks, with each likely to be in the 40% to 50% rostership range by the time the dust settles.
McConnell is always interesting, as he has a 23% usage rate when he is on the court, outstanding efficiency on his assists, impressive 56.8% eFG, and ability to generate steals and deflections. The only thing is the uncertain minutes, with the 33-year-old logging 5.9, 16.5 and 13.9 in the last three games after he hit a season high with 24.8 minutes of run. Even given the limited floor time, he still averaged 6.7 points, 1.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.0 stocks in his 12.3 minutes of action. Those feeling frisky can consider him on FanDuel ($5,600, 10.1%), where he is not as clearly in play as he is on DraftKings ($4,500, 31.7%).
Domantas Sabonis will be out until early January, though Dennis Schroder (hip) is getting close to a return after missing the last five games. Keegan Murray (trapezius) is questionable, and his availability will directly impact Precious Achiuwa with trickledown minutes and opportunities towards Malik Monk and Maxime Raynaud. Schroder’s return would knock some minutes off Russell Westbrook and Monk, so this situation is worth monitoring closely.
Even with just six teams in the player pool, there are a lot of moving parts, so be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Plus, tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.
Zach LaVine scored a season-low 2 points in 19 minutes on Wednesday, then he popped off for a season-high 42 points on Friday. Good luck knowing which version we will see tonight. The assessment is the same for DeMar DeRozan, who finally seems to be losing ground to Father Time.
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Russell Westbrook to have fewer than 14.5 rebounds + assists (RA) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Westbrook is currently listed on Hard Rock at -120 for over under 14.5 RA, with other books using that threshold in the -135 to -150 range, which is between a NEGATIVE 3.3% and 6.4% expected ROI. DraftKings, Caesars and a couple other books have lowered the threshold down to 13.5 RA, though it is still a losing proposition at even money and dreadful at -106 for a -8.1% expected ROI.
While the 2.6% expected ROI for this Hard Rock line is not exactly sexy, it is a steady return, and this would also be fine as a same-game parlay leg to unlock the 30% boost today.
Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.
Tonight Westbrook projects for 13.57 RA, and between the potential that Schroeder returns and his mercurial range of outcomes, this looks like an intriguing wager with the math on our side.
Follow these 4 simple steps to get Stokastic DFS Sim Tools FREE:
- Pick a Promo
- Sign Up & Bet
- Show Proof
- Claim Your Tools
It’s that easy! Now you have the best DFS tools in the business.
