NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Don’t Worry, Play Jamal Murray! (Nov. 15)

Saturday has a condensed four-game featured-slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, November 15

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Over the last five years, Nikola Jokic has won three NBA MVP Awards, while finishing second twice. Just when a rational person would think that Jokic would be unlikely to surpass the lofty expectations and heights of earlier seasons, he is averaging a career-high 10.9 assists per game, which leads the league. Additionally, his 13.1 rebounds per game are the second-most of his career and he sits atop the leaderboard in that catergory.

Charlotte, Los Angeles, Minnesota and Toronto all played last night, so there is likely to be several players resting tonight with LaMelo Ball being the most likely, followed by Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Lakers next three games after tonight are Tuesday, Sunday and Tuesday, so it would be mildly surprising of both Doncic and Reaves are out, though they did log 40 and 39 minutes in New Orleans, topping the Pelicans 118-104.

Antetokounmpo also logged 40 minutes, with the Bucks dominating overtime 18-5, to complete a 147-134 victory. The Bucks upcoming schedule has them taking the court again on Monday, with games next Thursday and Saturday.

Fortunately two games are at 7 p.m. ET, with the other two tipping off an hour later, which should help with the news. There are still likely to be a lot of moving parts, so sure to tune into Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!

If Jokic plays, he is the key target of the night and there should be enough discount dandies to facilitate this strategy. If he is out, then Jonas Valanciunas becomes the punt du jour on both DraftKings ($3,500) and FanDuel ($4,100).

Jamal Murray has played in 10 games this season, averaging 33.5 minutes, which is down from his career high of 36.1 last year. Still, he has personal-bests of 22.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and he the 28-year-old leads the league with a 97.4% conversion rate on his free throws, managing 5.7 assists alongside Jokic. Murray’s fantasy points per minute rate does not change without Braun, though he sees around a 10% bump when Jokic is off the court, since the start of last season.

Aaron Gordon will take on more scoring responsibilities without Braun in the mix, with Bruce Brown Jr. and Peyton Watson the most likely duo to get a boost in minutes with Johnson sidelined as well. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a wild card off the bench, but he too should see enough minutes tonight to at least be a placeholder value for now on FanDuel ($3,900, 22.3%), while on DraftKings he is at a ridiculous 50.9% on the same salary.

Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle are the DFS pillars from Minnesota, with former University of Washington stalwart Jaden McDaniels being an honorable mention on the main sites.

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Ball is unlikely to play on consecutive days for the foreseeable future and there is a chance that rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner (paternity leave) is out again tonight. He was not with the team in Milwaukee last night, but the Hornets are back in the Queen City tonight. Brandon Miller (shoulder) is likely out through at least Thanksgiving, which puts a lot of pressure on Miles Bridges, who projects for around 40 fantasy points, though he will have the full attention of the defense if he gets a hot hand for any extended stretch.

Speaking of the Thunder defense, the team is in a tier of their own this season, allowing 103.0 points per 100 possessions, which is a full standard deviation ahead of Denver (109.4) and Detroit (109.5). Heck, it is somehow dramatically better than the league leading 106.6 rate that OKC posted for the entire season last year, with the 15.6 net rating crushing the 12.7 from the championship campaign.

Jalen Williams (wrist) and Aaron Wiggins (adductor) are still out, though Luguentz Dort (shoulder) is getting close to returning, having missed the last five games.

Ajay Mitchell is very much in play on FanDuel ($5,900, 35.8%) where he is eligible for either guard slot. On DraftKings ($6,600, 4.6%), he has the same multi-position eligibility, though there are better options in his salary range. For those feeling feisty, Jaylin Williams is a differentiation play on DraftKings ($4,100%), though he is less appealing on FanDuel where he costs the lone center slot.

This would be a good game for Alex Caruso to be a DNP-CD, so tread lightly. Similarly, unless the game is somehow competitive into the second half, it would be a surprise for either Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren to play much more than 25 minutes. In addition to Mitchell, Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace have the best combination of regular first half minutes and a path for blowout run.

Rookie Kon Knueppel, journeyman Tre Mann and veteran Collin Sexton can be sprinkled in across lineups with the shallow player pool. Moussa Diabate would also land in that category, if Kalkbrenner is away from the team tonight.

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• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

This trio, augmented by point guard Immanuel Quickley are viable options nearly every time Toronto is in the player pool, though there is a lot of overlapping skillsets, which does tend to the collective curbing individual upside. Most night two are going to have solid games and one a great game, though it is hard to predict that with any certainty.

The Raptors are 7.5-point road favorites in Indiana, with a team total just over 120 points. Jakob Poeltl has played 29.5 minutes in each of the last two games, finally being ready to handle a regular workload. There are many center options tonight, though he should be in the mix for a double-double against the Pacers frontcourt.

Pascal Siakam remains the last man standing, aided by Andrew Nembhard. Toronto has a middling defense, though this duo has been assigned appropriate salaries across the various DFS sites accounting for the many missing teammates. Nembhard, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Isaiah Jackson are each projected to be on around 20% of all DraftKings lineups in the early projection run, with Nembhard the only Pacer above 20% on FanDuel, with Ben Sheppard making an appearance at 16.5% with his rock bottom $3,800 salary.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like RJ Barrett to have fewer than 19.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Barrett is currently listed at +115 on Hard Rock which is an elite 8.9% expected ROI when considering the “true odds” of -103. Several other books have this at -103 to -115, with “sharp” book Pinnacle at -124, which is a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI. Several other books, including DraftKings have elevated the threshold to under 20.5 points, though the -124 still is a slightly negative wager.

Barrett is averaging 19.2 points per game, behind Ingram (20.5) and Barnes (20.2), though it would not be a surprise if all three are above 20 points by the end of the season, Quickley is at 16.1 points per game, which makes for a crowded offense overall. Barrett has fallen shy of 20 points in three of the last four games, though he has cleared that mark in 7-of-12 (58%) this season. This wager is about getting the +115 on Hard Rock, which should bear fruit if it was available every game this season at the same rate.

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