Friday winds down the work week, bringing NBA Cup action starting at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including Franz Wagner, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Andre Drummond and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, November 14
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Franz Wagner: Magic vs. Nets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 42.22 | FanDuel: 41.61
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 12.5% | FanDuel: 40.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $7,900
Paolo Banchero injured his groin Wednesday night, and he could miss a week or more, depending on the severity. The 23-year-old is out for tonight and likely Sunday at the very least.
His absence leaves a void of approximately 22 points, nine rebounds, four assists and 33 minutes of run.
Since the start of last season, Franz Wagner is averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute alongside Banchero, surging to 1.35 in 1,159 minutes without his counterpart. On tap tonight is a matchup against the lowly Brooklyn Nets, and the Magic could definitely use a victory to get back to a winning record (6-6). The team won five of the last seven games.
The Nets are ceding 126.3 points per 100 possessions, which is the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league at nearly 4 points more than the Washington Wizards (122.9). In addition to Wagner, Desmond Bane also projects well with just over 40 fantasy points as his median outcome. He crossed in the 40-fantasy point plateau in two of his last four games. He also is being more assertive on offense with 15, 19, nine and 15 field goal attempts in the last four games. Bane is more popular on FanDuel ($6,400, 45.1%) than he is on DraftKings ($7,000, 20.1%), though he should be a part of the player portfolio on every site for savvy gamers.
Jalen Suggs saw his minutes ramp up to 26.3 in the last game, but he still is unlikely to play on consecutive days anytime soon. He is a strong value option on both DraftKings ($5,100, 44.4%) and FanDuel ($5,400, 38.1). However, his overall raw upside is likely to be around 35 to 37 fantasy points, aided by both efficiency and the matchup. Expect his tournament representation to slide to around 30% as the other teams release more injury news.
There are likely to be a lot of moving parts leading towards lock, so sure to tune into Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Andre Drummond: 76ers at Pistons
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 31.18 | FanDuel: 31.43
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 19.2% | FanDuel: 37.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $5,200
Joel Embiid is sitting out a third consecutive game with knee soreness, and unlike the first three he missed, Andre Drummond joined the first five for the most recent two. Expectations are that he will start again tonight in Detroit against the team that made him the ninth overall selection in the 2012 NBA Draft.
In these two tilts (one of which was against the Pistons in Philadelphia on Sunday), Drummond averaged 34.0 minutes and 10.0 field goal attempts with a 60% conversion rate. This resulted in 15.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.5 stocks for around 35 fantasy points. The 32-year-old can still get it done, and he should be refreshed, having last played on Tuesday. There are plenty of stars at the top of the projected points list, along with ample discount dandies, though Drummond is worthy of being tabbed as a foundational play for all formats tonight.
Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren each missed the last game for the Pistons, but that was likely due to Detroit coming off an overtime game. Expectations are that both will play tonight, putting them in the mix for tournaments, along with Tyrese Maxey for Philadelphia.
Jalen Brunson (ankle) is out for New York, which bodes well for Karl-Anthony Towns‘ upside against the Miami Heat tonight in Madison Square Garden. Miles McBride is a potential placeholder value, though he will be cemented as a solid salary saver if he starts for Brunson.
The Lakers are double-digit favorites in New Orleans tonight, with Austin Reaves looking like the better fantasy point-per-dollar option across the DFS sites compared to teammate Luka Doncic, who has the raw fantasy point upside to rival anyone in the player pool.
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- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Moussa Diabate: Hornets at Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 27.07 | FanDuel: 27.39
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 58.1% | FanDuel: 7.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $5,300
Rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner is with his wife, celebrating the birth of their first child. Charlotte indicated that Moussa Diabate will step into the starting lineup, making him a fun discount dandy on DraftKings and a potential pivot away from Drummond for FanDuel tournaments.
Diabate is a strong rebounder, and he should be good for a couple of blocks, with a double-double well within his realistic range of outcomes. LaMelo Ball missed the last five games due to an ankle issue, though he is expected to return to action tonight. The 24-year-old is always live for tournaments, but the layoff makes him a little tough to recommend for DFS purposes on such a large slate. However, his presence should at least make the Hornets more competitive, which would help Giannis Antetokounmpo be on the court for more run tonight.
Antetokounmpo is currently leading the league with 33.4 points, and the two-time NBA MVP does not have a scoring title to his name yet. He is atop the leaderboard for both made 2-point attempts and free throws attempted for the fourth straight season. Currently, he is just behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+145), Nikola Jokic (+155) and Luka Doncic (+375) for MVP Award odds at +650 (all data from Hard Rock).
Ryan Rollins is fine as a differentiation play, and he is second on the team with 17.3 points and 5.7 assists while ranking eighth in the league with 1.8 steals per game. His salary caught up with his new baseline production, though there is upside considering the matchup against the up-tempo Hornets, who eschew defense.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Amen Thompson to have fewer than 5.5 assists tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Thompson is currently listed at +107 on BetRivers, SugarHouse and +110 on Bovada, which is a strong 6.0% expected ROI when considering the “true odds” of -105. Most other books have this at -110 to -115, and that makes for a NEGATIVE 3% expected ROI, while Novig is at -135 for a punitive -10% expected ROI.
Portland improved on defense, though the team still has some inconsistencies. The Trail Blazers did manage to beat Denver and Oklahoma City during the last fortnight, and overall they allow 26.1 assists per game, which are the ninth fewest in the league. Thompson did have more than six assists in three of the last six games, though there is value in this wager as he projects for 5.2 tonight.
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