NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Game 1 and Game 7 Bookends (May 4)

Sunday brings the alpha and omega of a new series and a Game 7 matchup, with the fun locking at 6:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Evan Mobley looks like a fun option from Cleveland, while the core players in the night cap should see heavy minutes in what is shaping up to be a close game, with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler unlikely to go quietly into the night against Alperen Sengun and Fred VanELITE!

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, May 4

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Including the postseason, Mobley has averaged 1.14 fantasy points per minute alongside Garland and 1.28 per minute without his fellow first-time All-Star. That is a 12% jump, which is interesting, compared to Donovan Mitchell, who sees only a 2% boost without Garland. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has not given any indications on Garland’s status for tonight, though currently the Stokastic projections are assuming he plays his regular minutes.

Jarret Allen is a steady force, with double-doubles in three of the first four playoff games. He also has added 10 steals and a pair of blocks, with his two best showings occurring in South Beach, for Games 3 and 4. Do not get bogged down by his game logs against Indiana, with the defensive stalwart playing only 16 and one minutes in the two mid-April matchups.

Max Strus and De’Andre Hunter should have enough minutes, regardless of Garland to be borderline secondary selections. Ty Jerome and Sam Merrill are contingent options, who would surge into prominence if Garland is out.

Indiana had the second best offensive efficiency in the first round, with 118.0 points per 100 possessions, trailing Cleveland which posted a wicked 136.2 rating. The Cavs had the second-best defensive rating as well, trailing Oklahoma City 102.7 to 97.6.

The Pacers should be competent on offense, though we have to keep in mind that it has been rare for the Cavs to need to play stifling minutes for an entire game, since they easily handled the regular season, without overburdening their key players with heavy workloads, both with off-days and in-game rest.

This makes things a little tenuous for choosing a particular Pacer, since whichever “gets going” is also likely to have the full attention of the defense. If we get “scoring” Tyrese Haliburton, Game 1 could get spicy, if he elects to stay in facilitation mode, it is likely going to be a double-digit Cleveland win.

Per the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool, only Pascal Siakam has “positive” leverage, indicating he is going to be slightly underrepresented in tournaments. That is not surprising, considering that Indiana should be at full-strength, while facing a ferocious foe. That means Haliburton, Siakam, Myles Turner, T.J. McConnell, Benedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Obi Toppin are all pretty much neutral when compared with their salaries and popularity. Any of these players could readily surpass expectations, though unlike each of the three other teams in the player pool, there are no pre-game tells to lead us in a particular direction.

Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for this sample slate:

Draymond Green managed to get a Flagrant 1 foul barely three minutes into the game, because of course he did and the rest of the Golden State roster just fizzled out. Despite all of that, the ‘Dubs entered the final frame trailing by only a bucket, though a 14-1 run ensued shortly after, with the Warriors missing all nine field goal attempts and one of two at the charity stripe. This was part of 13-consecutive missed shots by Golden State, which was just too much to overcome.

Though coach Steve Kerr stuck with the starting lineup for the second half, it would not be a shock if Hield or spot-starter Gary Payton II gave way to Podziemski’s return to the first five. Curry and Butler are likely to go down swinging, which keeps each in the mix for a big game. If things go south early, it would not be a surprise to see Green get tossed, because he just can’t help himself after all these years.

Expect a lot of mixing and matching with Podziemski, Moody, Payton and Hield, with rookie Quinten Post also in the mix. Kevon Looney played only two minutes in Game 6 and outside of Green mucking things up, it would not be a shock for him to be in his warmups all game.

Fred VanVleet has channeled his inner-Toronto version of himself over the last trio of tilts, pouring in 25, 26 and then 29 points. He also had eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 6, showing his upside potential when everything is going his way. In these games he is 18-of-27 (67%) from behind the arc, while also getting to the line 15 combined times in the last two games. Everything is coming up roses for the former Wichita State Shocker, so enjoy the streak while it lasts.

Alperen Sengun has been the other steady force for the Rockets, with Golden State focusing on keeping Jalen Green in check. This had been a winning formula, until VanVleet’s resurgence, so expect more of the same on defense from the ‘Dubs. The other Golden State strategy was fouling Steven Adams, sending the New Zealander to the line for 16 free throws. He converted on nine, which helped him get to 17 points. The extra playing time a bonus, as were the four “stocks” (combined steals and blocks). It is hard to believe the various variable are going to join forces again to have Adams being a slate-breaker. He will still see time alongside Sengun, though all it will take is for the Rockets to be trailing in the second half and his playing time will evaporate.

Green had 38 points in Game 2, but just 47 combined points in the other five games of this series. The disappearing act has been impressive, with the team’s regular season leading scorer converting on only 30% of his field goal attempts in his five horrible games, with a dismal 21% success rate from 3-point range. If we get a Game 2 performance, he will be the “must have” for this slate, though for those making five or fewer lineups, it is a tough click.

Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. continue to battle for minutes, with their redundant skillsets. That is the order of preference based on the median fantasy projections and current salary, though it is also how the field sees things as well.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.

Take Evan Mobley under 30.5 points+rebounds+assists tonight, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.

Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.

If you think Garland plays, then this PRA is right in line with the Stokastic projections for Mobley. If you believe Garland will be out, then this wager is an avoid, based on the breakdown in the DFS section above. The best line for the over is a 31.5 PRA at between -106 and -110 on a few different operators. The two main “Pick’em” sites have elected to go with a 31.5 PRA at this time.