NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Game 6 Decisions! (May 1)

Thursday brings a pair of Game 6 matchups, with Detroit and Los Angeles on the brink of elimination. The fun tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Look for the stars like Cade Cunningham, Nikola Jokic, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard to be out in full-force, with plenty of interesting decision points up and down the salary sheet.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, May 1

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

In the first four games of the series, Gobert totaled a scant 17 points and 25 rebounds, while averaging 26 minutes of run. Getting essentially all of that at once, was the tipping point for the series, sending LeBron, Luka and the Lakers home for the season. The other outcome was not as unexpected, in that veteran head coach Steve Kerr stuck to his convictions and smartly sat his core players midway through the third-period, after it was clear the Warriors were highly unlikely to win, having fallen behind by as many as 31 points and with the Rockets holding a 99.7% win probability at home.

Yes, Houston did have to bring back the starters to quell a fourth-quarter pushback from Golden State, but that was after the likes of Kevin Knox II, Braxton Key, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Moses Moody gained some ground on their fellow reserves. Had the key contributors remained in the entire way for both teams, it is unlikely the ‘Dubs would have closed the gap to fewer than a dozen points and now Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green would be exhausted. The Warriors are still up 3-2 and 4.5-point favorites back at home on Friday.

So how do these instances impact tonight? Well, it is a reminder that even though the four teams are now gearing up for a sixth game against the same opponent barely a week and a half of calendar time, there is a reason the games are played and weird things can still happen.

Detroit ended a two-game slide, sneaking by New York for a 106-103 victory on Wednesday. Cade Cunningham is the engine for the Pistons, ranking among the top-three in the player pool for both popularity and median-fantasy projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This has the former first overall selection in the 2021 NBA Draft on the fence between the “raw points” and “fantasy points per dollar” argument.

The only potential change for Thursday’s opening game, is the potential that Isaiah Stewart returns to action. Otherwise it is going to be in-game variables, such as foul trouble, on-court performance and in-game injuries that create the variables.

Since these teams have each battled for more than a week, it is hard to believe that there are any wrinkles that have not yet been employed by either side. This has the 12 most popular players on FanDuel all falling within 38%-to-53% projected popularity levels, with DraftKings even tighter, with the top-eight options separated by only 5% tournament representation.

Streaky shooters like Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. will create their own variance for Detroit, though we will not know how that impacts things until the end of the game. Jalen Duren has constantly been battling foul-trouble and while he has been phenomenal on the boards, with three games of 13 or more rebounds, he has reached double-digit scoring only twice, with the last time a week ago in Game 3.

Veteran Tobias Harris was a factor on Tuesday’s four-game fantasy slate, with his two steals and four blocks, though in the preceding four tilts, he totaled a combined trio of each. If Stewart returns, he is worthy of a 10%-to-20% share, in the hopes of 1) a useable fantasy score and 2) creating different roster constructions from The Masses, which is nearly as important.

Ausar Thompson and Dennis Schroder provide salary relief, with inconsistent fantasy production, while Paul Reed is only in play if Stewart remains out.

Jalen Brunson was banged up with a lower leg issue in Game 4 and in Game 5 he tweaked his right ankle. He is not on the injury report, but considering he seemed to miss some key fourth-quarter run in each of the last two games, this is worth pointing out as a potential tiebreaker. Mitchell Robinson is another wild card, though it comes with the opportunity cost of a center-only player and while he had four “stocks” (combined steals and blocks) on Tuesday, he had only five in the first four games of this round.

Jason Hart and OG Anunoby bring the peripherals, with Anunoby also becoming more of a dependable scorer this season. Mikal Bridges is scoring dependent, which keeps his salary low and his outcomes wide, while Karl-Anthony Towns is yet another excellent center, making for fun decisions on FanDuel.

Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for this sample slate:

Although Jokic was just 4-of-13 (31%) from the field in Game 5, he still notched his third triple-double of the series, with Denver being +18 when he was on the floor. Jamal Murray came out of nowhere for 43 points, draining 8-of-14 (57%) from behind the arc and going 17-of-26 (65%) overall from the field. Aaron Gordon poured in 23 points, which was his best figure since the first game, with this duo eliminating the need for their three-time MVP to carry the offense.

Jokic is going to need help tonight again, if the Nuggets want to extend their season, since Ivica Zubac at least does not have to deal with the thin mountain air as he harasses Denver’s best player. The other thing to remember is that similar to Golden State last night, Denver has a 3-2 lead in this series, so if things end up out of hand, interim coach David Adelman could pull the regulars in the final frame, allowing them to regroup for a Game 7 effort back home on Saturday.

Michael Porter Jr. is still dealing with his injured left shoulder, though he has been more effective in the last two tilts. While he has attempted only 21 shots in this pair of performances, he is 7-of-12 (58%) from long-range and an uptick in volume is possible, with continued extreme efficiency. Aside from his wicked 15 rebounds in Game 2, he has only 12 in the last three games and 16 total in the four other installments of this series. That lack of alternative fantasy production is risky, but could be mitigated. This has MPJ squarely in play as a tournament target on both DraftKings ($5,100, 36.3%) and FanDuel ($5,200, 46.5%) at a palatable price points.

Wrapping up the Nuggets, Russell Westbrook is risky, Christian Braun is safe and Aaron Gordon has the widest range of DFS outcomes, with no other players worthy of consideration, outside of mop-up duty in a lopsided game.

Kawhi Leonard just missed a triple-double in the last game, falling one rebound shy and he continues to be the force behind the Clippers late-season resurgence. James Harden is the steady hand that is keeping LA in games, while Ivica Zubac has been impressive by actually contributing on offense, while expending so much energy taking on Jokic. We know what we are getting with this Big Three, with volume and efficiency being their paths to fantasy goodness.

Nicolas Batum is in play as a discount dandy, who at least will take a shot now and then. Kris Dunn keeps churning out minutes, getting useable fantasy games in a variety of ways, also known as being inconsistently consistent. He has done this with rebounds in a couple games, steals in a handful and scoring in a few. If it all comes together tonight, he is going to be a “must have” in all formats.

Norman Powell is scoring dependent for his fantasy fortune, which is a tough needle to thread, with Leonard, Harden and Zubac all ahead of him in the offense. Bogdan Bogdanovic is the better fantasy point per dollar option, though his minutes and overall “raw points” are a fraction of Powell’s. The journeyman combo-guard asserted himself as a scorer in the last game, with a series high 18 points and he is at least worth being over the field.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.

Take Jalen Brunson under 2.5 made 3-pointers tonight, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.

Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.

Brunson is dealing with lower leg issues and he has converted only one, four, one, four and two triples, in four, seven, seven, 12 and five attempts this series. It is never fun going against the mini-microwave, but the math is in our favor.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!