Thursday’s featured NBA DFS tournaments lock at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including a plethora of options from Boston, along with LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Michael Porter Jr. and more! These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, December 4
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Derrick White: Celtics at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.86 | FanDuel: 43.59
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 60.7% | FanDuel: 70.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,800
Jaylen Brown has not missed a game this season, so it is not a surprise to see him listed as doubtful due to an illness. Boston is still nearly a double-digit road favorite, and while the Wizards are plucky at home with two wins in the last four games, they have only three total for the year, including a 14-game losing streak.
Brown is leaving 33.4 minutes and 21.7 field goal attempts for the rest of the available players to fill, with Derrick White and Payton Pritchard likely to help cover the missing offense. Boston got off to a slow start, losing the first three games and five of the first eight. The team is figuring out life without Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford, winning seven of the last nine games. Brown was the leading scorer in 17 of the 21 games this season, though going against one of the worst defenses in the league should help the other Celtics elevate their games.
Interestingly enough, White posted a very similar stat line to each of the last two seasons, seeing a major drop in his field goal rate, which is a career-worst 37.0%. That is odd, considering that he had a 45.4% success rate in the three prior seasons. Pritchard made a decent increase in his production as a starter after winning the 6th Man Award, though he too lost some of his efficiency with the added minutes and responsibilities.
Tonight they are two of the five best fantasy point-per-dollar options on both DraftKings and FanDuel, joined by teammates Neemias Queta and Sam Hauser. Anfernee Simons is also in play, but he profiles better on DraftKings ($4,700, 25.7%) than FanDuel ($5,000, 15.4%).
Khris Middleton is expected to play, which takes away the appeal from most of the Washington wings. Marvin Bagley III and Tristan Vukcevic will again be splitting the center minutes, and they are still in play on DraftKings, even with their rising salaries now accounting for the minutes change while Alexandre Sarr is on the shelf. They can be skipped on FanDuel, where the cost of the center position is too much for either to overcome. C.J. McCollum is a wild card for tournaments since this is a favorable matchup as he will only have to face tough defense from White with Brown out of the picture.
Looking for Thursday Night Football Showdown DFS Content for Thursday, check out the F-R-E-E Article here.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
LeBron James: Lakers at Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.37 | FanDuel: 42.12
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 25.1% | FanDuel: 37.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $8,400
Luka Doncic is in Slovenia with his wife as the couple welcomed their new daughter to the family. For DFS purposes, that now means that LeBron James and Austin Reaves are strong plays, as their salaries were created with the expectation that Doncic was playing.
Marcus Smart is also out, which means Gabe Vincent should get more minutes tonight as a secondary facilitator behind Reaves and James. In the five games with James, Doncic averaged nearly two dozen field goal attempts per matchup, which leaves plenty for the other starters to divvy up. Doncic is also a good rebounder, so that is one fewer teammate that Deandre Ayton will be competing with, and given Jakob Poeltl is out, the Toronto frontcourt is far less intimidating on the glass.
RJ Barrett may return this weekend, but he is out for tonight, as is Ochai Agbaji. This helps consolidate things for Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, plus it is likely that Sandro Mamukelashvili will get a spot start, elevating his DFS profile.
Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Michael Porter Jr.: Nets vs. Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.72 | FanDuel: 41.91
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 33.2% | FanDuel: 28.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,400
Across the last 10 games, Utah had the second-worst defensive efficiency rating, allowing 122.4 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz also played at the third-fastest pace in this timeframe at 104.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
When this is combined with the dreadful defense of Brooklyn, there should be ample fantasy points available for players on both teams.
Jusuf Nurkic (ribs) is questionable, and if he is out, then that will open up minutes for Kyle Filipowski to become a discount dandy. Lauri Markkanen continues to be solid for the Jazz, but the real gem in this matchup is Michael Porter Jr. In the 11 games without Cam Thomas, MPJ averaged 33.2 minutes and 18.5 field goal attempts. This resulted in 27.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 combined steals and blocks. He is all but assured of double-digit 3-point attempts, and if Nurkic is out, a double-double is in play since it takes a top rebounder off the court.
Center Nicolas Claxton is a fine tournament target on both sites, with rookie Egor Demin standing out on FanDuel ($5,200, 11.2%), though sliding to irrelevance due to his increasing salary on DraftKings ($5,400, 3.1%). This will probably be the last time that Demin is DFS viable unless one of the other guards is out for Brooklyn or his salary begins to slide.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Rudy Gobert to have more than 11.5 rebounds tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Gobert is currently listed at Hard Rock at +100 for over 11.5 rebounds, with most books in the -120 to -135 range, which works out to a NEGATIVE 8.1% to 12.2% expected ROI. Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.
In this same matchup on Tuesday, Gobert had 13 rebounds, but just one came in overtime. Even though New Orleans was without Zion Williamson and Yves Missi, Minnesota still went big, giving Gobert 33 minutes in regulation. The Stifle Tower corralled 12-plus errant caroms in five of the last seven games, with a still solid nine in the other two games, in which he averaged just 26 minutes. His per-36-minutes rate is 11.5 rebounds, and with Zion out again, this is a favorable spot for Gobert despite the lofty goal of a dozen rebounds.
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