NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: NBA Cup Knockout Round Pt. 2! (Dec. 10)

Wednesday’s NBA Cup action locks at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including potential core plays such as Luka Doncic and Chet Holmgren, along with tournament targets like Austin Reaves and more! These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, December 10

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Even with all of the injuries, among them Jalen Williams (wrist) missing the first 19 games of the season, the Thunder lead the league with 23 victories and only one loss. Tonight OKC is favored by 14.5 points, which slipped a tick when Devin Booker (groin) was upgraded to questionable after missing the last two games. The team is so dominant that SGA only played notable minutes during the fourth quarter of 11 games this season.

Between the return of the injured Thunder and the uncertain status for Booker, there are innumerable variables to assess, so be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Plus, tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.

Chet Holmgren at least has a clear role, and with Hartenstein out, expectations are that the versatile pivot man has a solid path towards 26 to 27 minutes. There are a couple more attainable ticks if he sees a rotation in the final frame. Only once this season did he suffer a negative plus/minus, and that was a minus-1 in the opener against Houston. In 11 of his 20 games, he has a plus-14 or higher rating. He should produce mid-30s fantasy points, and he has upside via blocks and steals or the Suns keeping the game within reach into the late third quarter.

Williams is interesting as well since his wrist injury limited him to just five games this season. He only was needed for 25 and 24.1 minutes in each of the last two tilts, with the Thunder besting Dallas 132-111 on Friday and winning 131-101 in Utah on Sunday. Dort and Caruso are punt options on DraftKings at $3,900, as well as on FanDuel, where Caruso holds the same salary cap hit and Dort moves up to $4,100. Caruso will likely see around 15 minutes of run as there is no reason to risk the ace defender with the title defense a priority this season. Dort could see 20 to 22 as a reserve and gain another 4 to 5 on that projection if he starts.

Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins have the best path to mop-up duty, along with Jaylin Williams, who is a whirling dervish when he is on the court without the starters. Cason Wallace will be with the starters, which mutes his usage, and he may not see much blowout run now that the team sees more healthy players available.

Booker’s availability will dramatically impact the minutes of Jordan Goodwin while taking some usage and offensive opportunities away from Dillon Brooks, Grayson Allen and Collin Gillespie. Royce O’Neale will still chuck up 3’s and play defense, so Booker does not change his role. Mark Williams is in play as a starter, though SGA and Holmgren could easily coax him into foul trouble. Oso Ighodaro has power forward eligibility on FanDuel, which is nice, and he provides another potential discount dandy on DraftKings. Ryan Dunn is another mercurial salary saver with fantasy upside through steals and blocks.

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Currently, Doncic is projected for 36.1 minutes and Austin Reaves for 35.3, though each could push for 40 minutes of run in a close game. Reaves continues to evolve as a well-rounded complementary player, able to fill in pretty much anywhere when Doncic and LeBron James are off the court. That is impressive considering that Doncic leads the league in scoring (35.0 points), along with field goals made (10.8) and attempted (22.9), 3-pointers attempted (10.7), and free throws made (9.8) and attempted (12.1).

Reaves is averaging 28.4 points per game himself at a stellar 59.3% eFG, along with 5.5 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.3 stocks (combined steals and blocks). Overall, this is a winnable game for the Lakers, and that is more important than everything, though a victory also puts James closer to winning another NBA Cup. He has a 33.1-minute projection, but he could push for 36 to 37 if the game goes down to the wire.

Deandre Ayton is the third-most popular Laker on DraftKings and FanDuel, but that is mostly a factor of him being one of four starting centers tonight. He is always live for a double-double, and with three capable passers feeding him lobs, he can flirt with a 20/10 if he has 14-plus field goal attempts. Marcus Smart is dealing with various injuries this season, and while he is expected to play, more than 15 minutes would be a surprise.

Rui Hachimura will get minutes, but he tends to fade into the background with Doncic, James and Reaves getting the offensive touches and Ayton getting those close to the basket. Jake LaRavia’s only realistic route to DFS relevance is something happening to one of the frontcourt starters or via mop-up duty.

Hat tip to San Antonio, compiling an 8-3 record since Victor Wembanyama was injured. Four of the wins were against the dregs of the league, though the Spurs also beat Denver, Orlando and Portland on the road. Fun note, Portland is the only team to best the Thunder this season.

The Lakers were in the bottom third of the league over the last 10 games, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions, while San Antonio was a little worse with a 118.5 defensive efficiency rating. This game should have a slightly above-average pace, which bodes well for Fox and Dylan Harper having more scoring and assisting opportunities. That is the key duo for the Spurs, then things become murky.

Harrison Barnes stands out on DraftKings ($4,900, 42.8%) and FanDuel ($4,800, 39.4%), though he is more of a steady contributor than one who possesses a lot of upside. FanDuel projections have Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Luke Kornet all in the 22% to 28% rostership range. Among that group, only Champagnie (31.7%) and Johnson (27.6%) are above 20% in the early run.

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!

• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

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Take a bet like Keldon Johnson to have fewer than 11.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Johnson is currently listed on BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse at -108 for under 11.5 points, with other books using that target figure in the -125 to -136 range, which is between a NEGATIVE 1.4% and 4.3% expected ROI. Other books have lowered the target to 10.5 points, with the +115 on Hard Rock at least giving a 2.3% expected ROI, though that is well below the 5.4% for under 11.5 on the best books when compared to the -121 “true odds” tonight.

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