Sunday brings a Game 7 in the NBA Finals for just the 20th time in league history. In these games, the home team is 15-4. Let’s break down the top NBA DFS picks and key lineup building blocks on FanDuel and DraftKings. These plays reflect the most up-to-date data — and for live updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, June 22
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Pascal Siakam: Pacers at Thunder
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 38.93 | FanDuel: 38.22
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 43.7% | FanDuel: 55.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,400
Through the playoffs, both Indiana and Oklahoma City have 15-7 records. This has been a phenomenal series with narrow and convincing wins by each team. Across six games in the Finals, the Thunder outscored the Pacers by a scant 7 points.
It is hard to know what will change on the Pacers side, if anything, as coach Rick Carlisle has been sublime with tweaking things here and there on offense, defense and even the focus of players in specific games and situations.
Pascal Siakam has been stellar as he goes for his second career NBA Championship. He continually is the glue holding everything together on offense and defense for the Pacers. He has seen a $400 increase on DraftKings and a $600 bump on FanDuel. The Cameroonian is an excellent foundational play with merit for landing in the multiplier slot.
The major variable tonight is, of course, the calf strain Tyrese Haliburton suffered in Game 4. It was a little surprising that coach Mark Daigneault did not have his team target Haliburton more in pick-and-rolls or other direct offensive points of attack to ascertain how hard he would play. Another two-plus days of treatment are likely to at least have Haliburton similarly ready to roll on Sunday night, though there is an elevated risk of reinjury.
On Thursday, it looked like Haliburton was laboring a little in the first few minutes, but he managed to play through, albeit cautiously. He was also helped by Indiana taking the lead with just under nine minutes remaining in the second quarter and never looking back, storming to a 64-42 score at the end of the half and then widening that lead to 30 points at the close of the third period.
Ben Sheppard had three minutes in the first quarter, but he had two rotations in the third and never left the floor during the final frame. Expectations are that he will slide back to 12 to 14 minutes, particularly if Indiana is trailing.
To his credit, Sheppard did have 7 points, sinking 3 of 7 field goal attempts, which is a high-water mark for him, along with five rebounds. For context, 5 points and all of the rebounds came in the fourth quarter, when the game was turned over to the understudies.
Thomas Bryant, Johnny Furphy and even elder statesman James Johnson saw late fourth quarter action on Thursday. Bennedict Mathurin played just over five minutes in the first half, and T.J. McConnell got almost 11.5, helping run the offense to allow Haliburton a break and to act as an off-ball distraction.
Mathurin should be the beneficiary of the minutes Sheppard vacates, with McConnell chipping in for something in the low 20s. His 22 and 24 minutes in the last two games are the most playing time he has seen this postseason, save for 22 minutes at the end of April against Milwaukee.
Aside from a random 3.5-minute stretch in the early fourth quarter, Myles Turner went to the bench with Haliburton midway through the third with the Pacers holding a 73-54 lead that Siakam and the second unit extended to 90-60 in short order. Over the last fortnight, Turner has been a non-factor for DFS purposes, failing to reach 25 fantasy points in the last four games, with a high of 30.5 fantasy points in the opener.
The veteran of 10 NBA campaigns is averaging 11.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.0 “stocks” (combined steals and blocks) this series. Watching the games, he has clearly been a key part of the success; it just isn’t showing up in the fantasy box score.
Aaron Nesmith had four fouls, though he was on track for 30 minutes if the game had been close. He continues to be a defense-first player but chipped in just enough across the board to be fantasy relevant at his current DFS salary on DraftKings ($5,000) and especially on FanDuel ($3,600).
Andrew Nembhard answered the ask to pick up his offense, putting in 17 points, trailing only Obi Toppin, who had 20 off the bench. This duo took the pressure off Haliburton, who still had 14 points, along with five assists and two steals. Nembhard and Toppin continue to be priority plays over Turner and Nesmith.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Thunder vs. Pacers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 55.61 | FanDuel: 55.73
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 76.1% | FanDuel: 94.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $14,400 | FanDuel: $17,200
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander saw his salary increase by $200 on DraftKings while falling by the same amount on FanDuel. He is going to have to put on an MVP performance to enable his team to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy tonight.
Coach Daigneault had his starters rooted to the bench for the fourth quarter, saving them for tonight’s action. The team has been stewing for three days thinking about their Game 6 loss.
Jalen Williams missed all four of his 3-pointers and Chet Holmgren was 2-for-9 from the field, so it is no surprise that the Thunder faltered on Thursday. The team is still the youngest in the playoffs, and aside from Alex Caruso — who played a key role for the Lakers when they won the Championship in “the bubble” during the pandemic — no other player on the roster has any real postseason experience to speak of at this level. Expect both teams to be focused tonight, with no margin of error for either side to finish out a dream season.
Holmgren was outstanding in Games 3 and 4, OK in Games 2 and 5, and dreadful in Games 1 and 6. The team has to get him the ball in the paint as his long-range efforts have come up empty, including sinking just 3 of 17 from behind the arc this series. It is clear the former Gonzaga stalwart is going to be a star in this league, but this is a prove-it situation; otherwise Indiana is going to continue to sag off him when he floats out to the perimeter.
It will be interesting to see if there is a third different starting lineup tonight, with Isaiah Hartenstein potentially being replaced by Cason Wallace, Caruso or even Kenrich Williams.
Be sure to check out Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis and breaking news and to find out if there are any lineup changes for Indianapolis.
Hartenstein remained in the starting lineup, and he was trending for around 20 to 22 minutes, had the game not become so lopsided. If he falls out of the starting lineup, that likely will cost him around three or four minutes, putting him back in the mid- to upper teens. OKC has been hesitant to go with no bigs outside of mop-up duty.
Luguentz Dort never set up the Dorture Chamber, though expect him to be back on duty tonight. He failed to get a stock for only the third time in the last 13 games, which is clearly an anomaly. Dort looks interesting on FanDuel ($2,200), where he projects to be on nearly 25% of all tournament rosters. Keep in mind the blue site rewards 3 fantasy points for both blocks and steals. He also is in the mix on DraftKings ($4,000), where the bonus for made 3-pointers is pushing him to be on nearly one-in-three rosters.
Caruso was again the first reserve in the game, subbing for Hartenstein. Had the game been close, he would have pushed for 30 minutes, though like the starters, he didn’t see the court in the fourth period. The defensive maven should be preloaded on FanDuel ($4,400), but he is a real decision point on DraftKings ($6,400), where he needs at least mid-20s fantasy points to be worthwhile and something approaching 30 to return a profit on his lofty salary.
Aaron Wiggins was the second reserve off the bench after Caruso, seeing 22.4 minutes and getting extra burn with his 14 points. Depending on his success from the field and mop-up duty, Wiggins could again be a solid mid-tier option, albeit with a shaky floor.
Isaiah Joe played 90 seconds in the second period and 3.2 minutes in the third. He is only one game removed from a DNP-CD, though he is likely to get a chance to provide quick offense in the first half, which will likely influence his playing time for the remainder of the game. Aaron Wiggins and Wallace are the reserves most likely to get minutes in both halves, while Kenrich has the widest range of outcomes, but his ability to guard four positions and also contribute without the ball in his hands could get him more run at the expense of Wiggins, Joe or even Caruso.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.
Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 4.5 rebounds, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.
Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.
Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare odds across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.
There are not many positive wagers out on the markets with this being the seventh game of the NBA Finals. This series has been extended as far as it can, and tonight it will come to a conclusion. Over the six installments, Gilgeous-Alexander corralled five, five, eight, three, two and four errant caroms. The plus money is what makes this wager appealing, even with the reigning NBA MVP projected for 4.96 rebounds tonight.
