NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: New Matchups Mean New Strategies (May 5)

Monday brings forth two fresh series, with the action getting underway at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: The leading MVP candidates and their teams are squaring off in Oklahoma City, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic excellent DFS options. Players from this game are dominating the tournament portfolios, which means there are some fun differentiation plays from Boston, with contrarian point per dollar considerations from the mid-range Knickerbockers.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Monday, May 5

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Even with Oklahoma City nearly double-digit favorites, the hope is that Jokic and the Nuggets can put up more of a fight than the Memphis Grizzlies did in the first round. The disparity in rest is not going to do Denver any favors and someone is going to have to step up to help Jokic, in the teeth of this dangerous defense. This series is likely to end with a “gentleman’s sweep” with the Nuggets probably stealing a game in Denver.

SGA ideally will get to open things up on offense, pushing for 30 points and at least mid-50s fantasy points. Jokic is also a strong option, though it will be interesting to see what interim coach David Adelman does if this game gets out of hand early.

Isaiah Hartenstein’s role should increase this series, with his primary focus being to stop Jokic. That should be worth a couple extra minutes, pushing him from low-to-mid 20s to mid-to-upper 20s, since his bulk will be more effective against Jokic than Chet Holmgren.

Jamal Murray is going to have a tough series, having to deal with the defense of Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort. That could funnel things to Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., but will they be able to convert? If they cannot, this game could easily turn into a rout.

Caruso is a solid discount dandy on both DraftKings ($4,000, 48.4%) and FanDuel ($4,800, 44.6%), with Dort also being a fine fantasy point per dollar option. But wait … there’s more … Jalen Williams and Holmgren are excellent complementary players off of the SGA point of attack, with Williams a strong secondary facilitator and scoring from the wing, with Holmgren able to attack from the paint. There are few weaknesses with this Thunder team and they have yet to fully fire on all cylinders.

Per the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool, only Jokic has “positive” leverage among the players in this game, indicating he is going to be slightly underrepresented in tournaments. The best “value” appears to be Russell Westbrook who is not going unnoticed by The Masses on DraftKings ($4,800, 38.1%) or FanDuel ($5,200, 38.8%).

Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for this sample slate:

Tatum averaged 36 points per game in the final three matchups against Orlando, also contributing on the glass with just over 10 per game for the series. That has always been a shortcoming for him, so it is good to see that he has been so aggressive. This series is going to be a rock fight, with New York willing to get physical on defense and of course with Boston having lockdown defenders across the board. That makes it tough to back Jalen Brunson, who will be dealing with a combination of Holiday, Derrick White and likely even Jaylen Brown for a different wrinkle.

This all puts a lot of pressure on Karl-Anthony Towns, who will not have a walk in the park against Porzingis and venerable veteran Al Horford. Similar to the Nuggets, it is going to have to be the secondary players who contribute, to avoid this being a quick series against the reigning World Champions.

If Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart or OG Anunoby gets going, expect the Celtics to turn the defense attention towards them. Still, that trio provides the most intriguing fantasy point per dollar path to relevance, though Bridges is a little too scoring dependent to be as trustworthy as Hart and Anunoby, who will be collecting defensive stats with rebounds, steals and blocks, with scoring being their upside, rather than a core ingredient for success.

Tatum, Brown and Porzingis are the trio to target from Boston, with Holiday and Payton Pritchard being afterthoughts. White has some appeal if he gets going from long-range, though the two-time All-Defense Second Teamer has a different focus for this series, that could dampen his DFS prospects.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.

Take Derrick White under 24.5 points+rebounds+assists tonight, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.

Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.

The projections have White for 23.6 PRA, which is a little below tonight’s threshold. Keep in mind that Holiday should be getting more minutes and he is not on the injury report after having missed the last three games of the first round with a tender hamstring. He will be the lead facilitator, which cuts into White’s opportunities for helpers, while also giving the dynamic guard a chance to “rest” on offense, before resuming his battles with Brunson and Bridges.