NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Opening Night is Here! (Oct. 21)

Tuesday brings a two-game featured slate with a 7:30 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Austin Reaves and Amen Thompson look like the foundational building blocks, with Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Alperen Sengun the highest-scoring targets.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, October 21

Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Sims are live just in time for Opening Night! For the first two slates of the season, you can unlock full access to all our NBA DFS tools for just $1 with promo code SGA! Choose a package, enter the promo code and enjoy two days of Stokastic NBA DFS for just a buck.

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

That makes the Luka Doncic deal even more crucial since he is talented enough to carry the franchise hopes for a strong start to the season, with a deep playoff run the ideal payoff. Doncic is a top-5 player from a DFS perspective, and we are all well aware of his capabilities.

Another major change to the roster is the addition of Deandre Ayton via free agency. Bill Duffy, who represents Ayton, is also the agent for Doncic. There is no need to rehash the conspiracies that the voided Mark Williams deal was influenced by saving the first-round draft pick, with advanced knowledge that Ayton would be thrilled to join Los Angeles.

Ayton missed significant playing time due to a variety of maladies over the last six seasons, never matching the 71 games he played after Phoenix drafted him first overall in 2018. He had moderate usage of around 20% each season, mostly getting his buckets on dunks and short-range shots with elevated efficiency, and he also averaged double-digit rebounds every season. While James is out, Ayton should push for north of 17 points per game.

Of course, there is a chance dismally disinterested Deandre is the version we see in Los Angeles, where he settles for mid-range jumpers and gets less than a block per game. He has not been on a winning team in some time, so hopefully that keeps him engaged.

The Stokastic NBA DFS Projections have Rui Hachimura for 30.9 minutes, with newcomer Jake LaRavia and defensively minded Jarred Vanderbilt at around 18 minutes each. Regardless of team or role, Hachimura never really did much for fantasy gamers, averaging fewer than 14 points per game every season while providing limited rebounding and defensive stats. This is his seventh season in the league, and he is at best a rotation player.

Austin Reaves will benefit the most from the absence of James, getting an increase in his offensive opportunities and being the co-facilitator with Doncic. He should be able to flirt with the 40-fantasy point plateau, making him a strong foundational play across the main DFS sites.

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The rest of the Lakers bring uncertainty, with Jaxon Hayes dinged up and Marcus Smart being gobsmacked by injuries over the last three seasons as his Defensive Player of the Year campaign feels like it was a lifetime ago. Dalton Knecht may only play 10 minutes, but he could splash enough triples to be interesting on the two-game slate, though that is not particularly likely. Gabe Vincent should play around 24 to 26 minutes, depending the effectiveness of Smart, and he is at least a neutral option whom we can use to round out rosters.

Expectations are that Vincent will start tonight, though that is not confirmed and it could also be LaRavia or Smart. Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!

Moses Moody is out due to a calf issue, and Jimmy Butler III is probable with a minor ankle injury. Butler turned 36 last month, Stephen Curry will be 38 this spring and Draymond Green will turn 36 in March. The Warriors did not get any younger by bringing in 39-year-old Al Horford to man the pivot position, so expect ample rest days and nagging injuries throughout the season. For tonight, that is not a concern, and while reserve Jonathan Kuminga is dealing with an ankle issue, he is expected to play.

Brandin Podziemski or Buddy Hield will be the candidates to replace Moody, with Podziemski the preferred DFS option. Gary Payton II is likely to see around 14 to 18 minutes at the two or three, focusing on defending the Los Angeles wings.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned his first NBA MVP Award after finishing second and fifth in the two previous seasons. He also led the league with 21.8 field goal attempts per game, and for the second consecutive season, he was the leader for free throws made (7.9 and 7.6) per game. SGA was also the scoring champion with 32.7 points per game. That was impressive given that Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4) was the only other player to exceed 30 points per game.

Oklahoma City indicated it will be the double-big lineup tonight with both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein starting. Houston will counter with Steven Adams joining Alperen Sengun in the frontcourt, which will likely push Reed Sheppard to a bench role. Fred VanVleet is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL, so Amen Thompson and Sheppard will serve as the primary ballhandlers, with Kevin Durant and Sengun also able to serve as secondary facilitators from the wing and high or low post.

Bookmark our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page to see projected and confirmed lineups, along with any pertinent notes and assumptions that the Stokastic data team is considering, as well as highlighted injury situations to monitor.

Clearly, the big change for the Rockets this season is dealing Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, as well as several picks and swaps, in what turned out to be a seven-team deal. The crux of the move was Green and Brooks ending up in Phoenix for Durant, with the other teams involved to make the various salary cap situations palatable and meet the overall league requirements for the trade.

Atlanta also sent Clint Capela to Houston, returning the center to the team that drafted him back in 2014 and where he spent his first six seasons in the league. The 30-year-old is built-in redundancy for Adams, though the Kiwi is likely to be the matchup-based starter as coach Ime Udoka likes to use a version of the “double-big” lineup in various situations. Overall this was a move made to specifically counter OKC, so it is fun to get to see how this works out on Opening Night.

Adams is definitely in play on both DraftKings ($4,200) and to a lesser extent on FanDuel ($3,900), with only one center slot on the blue site. Cam Whitmore was traded to the Washington Wizards for a couple of second-round picks to create less of a logjam among the wings. The team added Dorian Finney-Smith, though he is unlikely to be available until early November as he works his way back from ankle surgery. He is more of a depth piece and a perimeter defender than a fantasy-relevant option. Jae’Sean Tate is also out, opening up a few minutes for other players.

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• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
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Tari Eason is unlikely to play back-to-back games, and estimations are that he will have a soft cap of around 24 to 26 minutes most nights, particularly when everyone is healthy. Last year, Eason played in 57 games and saw 28-plus minutes on 14 occasions, including more than 32 seven times. Though he played in all 82 games as a rookie, he appeared in just 79 games over the last two campaigns. The goal is to keep him available as he is a well-rounded talent that will be one of the keys to a successful season and a playoff run.

Jabari Smith Jr. will round out the starting lineup, though he is a low-usage player (16% to 18%) who needs to be on the court to collect counting stats. Baseline expectations are for around 26 to 32 minutes most nights, which should have him pushing for mid-20s fantasy points. He is in play on this two-game slate, but most days he will be a tertiary target at best, barring team injuries and maintenance days.

Josh Okogie is a deep dart throw; however, he probably will be on the court for around 12 to 14 minutes, while Aaron Holiday should see a little less run serving as Sheppard’s backup.

In summary, Durant, Sengun and Thompson are the priority plays from Houston, but keep in mind the Thunder had very little turnover from their title run and have one of the best defenses that the league has ever seen.

Wrapping up Oklahoma City, Cason Wallace is expected to be in the starting lineup, along with Luguentz Dort, though Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Ajay Mitchell will all be in the mix for low-20s minutes off the bench. Caruso was key in the playoffs, and he tends to play more in big games such as tonight. Looking ahead to Thursday when the Thunder will be taking on the Pacers in Indianapolis and favored by 7.5 points, that is a spot where we will probably see the ace defender play nominal minutes, with Wiggins and Mitchell getting more.

Jaylin Williams will have DFS relevance this season, particularly when Holmgren or Hartenstein are out, but tonight there is a chance he may not set foot on the court, even with Kenrich Williams out.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Jimmy Butler to score less than 18.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Butler is currently listed at -124 on Unibet, Rally and BetParx, with several operators posting under 17.5 points and even PointsBet going with under 16.5 points, though the odds are only -105. That is a swing from a steady 3.8% expected ROI all the way down to a negative 5.1% expected ROI compared to the -135 “true odds” for under 18.5 points.

Keep in mind that Butler did not play this preseason while dealing with an ankle issue. He could be rusty tonight, and we need to remember that he is no longer a spring chicken. If he does not drive to the bucket or get to the free-throw line, there is a good chance he will fall short of the 19 points needed for this wager to fail.

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