NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Paolo Banchero or Bust! (Nov. 1)

Saturday has differing slates and start times with DraftKings locking at 6:00 p.m. ET and FanDuel tipping off one hour later. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Paolo Banchero stands out against the Wizards in Washington, with Jaden McDaniels a core play on DraftKings, while Cade Cunningham leads the way on FanDuel, with the sites choosing different player pools.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, November 1

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

In plainer terms, the Wizards have allowed at least 126 points in regulation in four of five games this season. Orlando playing for a third time in four days and this is also the Magic’s fourth game since Monday, though the team does not suit up again until Tuesday. Jalen Suggs is unlikely to play on back-to-backs for the early portion of the season, as he regains his health. He is the only notable player on the shelf though expected to play tonight, aside from Moritz Wagner (knee), who is unlikely to be back before early-December.

Paolo Banchero has been off to a steady start, flirting with 50 fantasy points in most games thus far. The former first overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft has a strong all-around game and after a slow start from the field (11-of-36, 31%) in the first two games, he has regained his touch over the last trio of tilts (25-of-46, 54%).

The Magic are nearly double-digit road favorites, though the team lost their first four games, before finally winning on Thursday. There are high expectations for the franchise this season, plus the team is working in Desmond Bane into the mix with Banchero and Franz Wagner. Do not let “blowout concerns” cloud your judgement with Banchero, who is a tremendous foundational play across the DFS sites.

Wagner and Bane look good on FanDuel, with each trending for around 30% tournament representation, with Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,400, 21.4%) being the secondary options on DraftKings.

Orlando has been playing at a top-10 pace, with a bottom-10 defense, though the Washington rotation is rather crowded with the return of Bilal Coulibaly. CJ McCollum and second-year center Alexandre Sarr are the only appealing Wizards, with around 20%-to-25% tournament rostership on the four-game slate.

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Brandon Miller (shoulder) is likely going to be out through Thanksgiving and LaMelo Ball (ankle) is questionable, because this game is played on a day ending in “y” (shout out to Big Baller Brand shoes!).

Both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed in depth tonight, so sure to tune into Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!

Jaden McDaniels is a tremendous defender, though the former University of Washington stalwart has also been improving on the offensive end of the game as well. Since the start of last year, in 2,600 minutes alongside Edwards, McDaniels has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute, though with Edwards off the court, that increases by nearly 11% to 0.94 fantasy points per minute.

We have also seen McDaniels up his scoring in the postseason each of the last two years, as compared to his regular season rates. In the two games without Edwards, McDaniels has averaged 17.5 field goal attempts and 27.5 points, as compared to the 12.3 in the three games with the franchise cornerstone. Last year in three games without Edwards, McDaniels averaged 16.3 field goal attempts, as compared to the 9.9 when they played together.

Julius Randle has averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute when he is on the court with Edwards, with that rate jumping to 1.24 in 562 minutes without his compatriot. That is close to a 20% increase, which also has Randle looking like a desirable play on all slates where he is available.

Naz Reid and Mike Conley are also in play, though we would not be considering them if this were a six-plus game slate. If Ball laces them up, he is a secondary tournament target, projecting to be on 25% of all DraftKings rosters, with rookie center Ryan Kalkbrenner providing discounted differentiation at $4,600.

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!

• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Dallas is thinned out, with Anthony Davis (calf) out for 2-to-3 weeks, Dereck Lively II unavailable until early next week and Dante Exum (knee) on the shelf for at least two weeks. Daniel Gafford (ankle) is getting closer to making he season debut, though still listed as questionable and D’Angelo Russell (knee) is questionable as well. Detroit is only missing Jaden Ivey, while still waiting for Marcus Sasser (hip) to make his first appearance of the season.

Stokastic NBA DFS Projections have Cade Cunningham for 34.4 minutes, 27.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.7 combined blocks and steals. Detroit is 8.0-point home favorites, though if this ends up being a lopsided game, Cunningham will all but assuredly have dropped an impressive fantasy total. Dallas has been playing at a top-five pace and the mediocre defense is only going to get worse without a post presence and any rim protectors. Jalen Duren should feast on in the paint and anything less than a 15-10 double-double should be considered a disappointment.

Ausar Thompson’s minutes have been all over the place, with some foul trouble and coach J.B. Bickerstaff not happy with the youngster’s offense. He profiles well on FanDuel, with blocks and steals each worth three fantasy points.

PJ Washington is going to have to help shoulder the scoring load, though expect some mercurial outcomes as he relies a lot on 3-pointers. Rookie Cooper Flagg is going to have to grow up quickly, to help prevent this being a lost season for the Mavericks.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like PJ Washington to score less than 16.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Washington is currently listed at -108 for under 16.5 points on FanDuel, which stands out dramatically when compared to the rest of the field. We can see that most other books are in the -120 range, while Hard Rock is at -120, but dropping the threshold to under 15.5 points. That is a swing from a solid 4.7% positive expected ROI all the way down to a NEGATIVE 2.4% for the books with -125 or worse odds and a punitive 9.3% on Hard Rock. Be a savvy shopper!

There is no question that Washington is going to have to pick up the scoring slack, created by the injury to Davis. Of course defenses know this as well and the likes of 35-year-old Klay Thompson, an 18-year-old rookie in Flagg and dinged up veterans Gafford and Russell are not exactly going to be providing cover. Washington is projected for 16.6 points tonight, though that does not account for variable outcomes.

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