Wednesday brings another terrific set of NBA matchups, with the fun locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Pascal Siakam is the literal last man standing for the Pacers, and Isaiah Stewart looks like the discount dandy du jour. DraftKings is building their contests around the first eight games, while FanDuel is rolling out all 11 games for their featured slate, leading to different player recommendations and strategies between the two sites.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, November 5
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Pascal Siakam: Pacers vs. Nets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 50.44 | FanDuel: 48.42
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 34.3% | FanDuel: 29.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $9,600
Once more, the DFS sites are differing with their slates tonight. DraftKings is skipping the three late games, and FanDuel is including the entire docket of 11 games.
Golden State played last night, besting the visiting Phoenix Suns 118-107. Stephen Curry (illness) was already ruled out, with Jimmy Butler (back) questionable after sitting out the second half of last night’s game.
Both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed in depth tonight, so sure to tune into Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!
Indiana is now going to be without Johnny Furphy (ankle) for at least a week, and Quenton Jackson was ruled out due to a strained hamstring that forced him out of Monday’s matchup. Kam Jones (back), Bennedict Mathurin (foot), T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Andrew Nembhard (shoulder) are out as well, though some of them are likely to return in the next week or two, depending on how their respective rehabilitations progress. Plus Obi Toppin is out for months and, of course, Tyrese Haliburton is lost for the season.
RayJ Dennis (back) is probable, so he is projecting as placeholder value, though likely to fall out of favor as the other teams begin to release injury reports. Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith and Isaiah Jackson are also in the mix as value options, with various degrees of utility against the Brooklyn Nets.
The real gem, of course, is Pascal Siakam, who is sitting with a career-high 30.7% usage rate, ranking 15th in the league. He also has a career-high 28.3% assist rate and a personal-best 26.0 points per game, adding on 8.4 rebounds and just over two stocks (steals plus blocks) for good measure.
Currently, the Nets have the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league, allowing 128.5 points per 100 possessions, and four of their eight games ended up with opposing teams scoring 125 or more points, all in regulation. Siakam is a foundational play in all formats, and while he does not have the same likelihood of posting an 80-fantasy point ceiling game like Nikola Jokic or Victor Wembanyama, he has a similar fantasy point-per-dollar ratio. The Cameroonian also has a pair of 60-fantasy point performances this season, with two more in the 50s.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Isaiah Stewart: Pistons vs. Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.38 | FanDuel: 29.21
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 42.3% | FanDuel: 43.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $5,000
Isaiah Stewart joined the first five on Monday when Tobias Harris (ankle) was ruled out. The former University of Washington stalwart cruised to 26 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and four blocks in 34 minutes against Utah.
This flurry of fantasy goodness resulted in a career-high 59.5 DraftKings and 59.8 FanDuel points. Clearly, we should not expect another apex outburst, though something in the low 30s is reasonable, with a solid opportunity to make a foray to the 40-fantasy point plateau.
Cade Cunningham is an important decision point on DraftKings, though he is more of a differentiation option on FanDuel, where the player pool also includes Wembanyama, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The face of the Pistons has a five-figure salary, trailing only Jokic on DraftKings while being $200 more expensive than Tyrese Maxey and $700 higher than Siakam.
The first overall selection in the 2021 NBA Draft had two 60-fantasy point efforts and one 50-burger in his last three games. Aside from a dud against Cleveland, Cunningham scored at least 20 points in every game, and he tied his career high of 18 assists on Saturday against Dallas. Looking at the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, we can see that the 24-year-old has the third-best leverage score on FanDuel while leading the way on DraftKings. This is likely to change leading up to lock, but what it tells us is that Cunningham is underrepresented in tournaments, based on his probability of being in the “optimal” lineup, versus his overall rostership in the featured tournaments.
Utah will be without Walker Kessler (shoulder) for a third consecutive game, and while Jusuf Nurkic’s salary ticked up after two starts, he still has a nice “boom” probability. Keyonte George is getting minutes, and that allows him to continue his consistent fantasy production, and Lauri Markkanen is tournament worthy, able to pile up points against any opponent.
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jonathan Kuminga: Warriors at Kings
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 33.02 | FanDuel: 32.28
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: n/a | FanDuel: 28.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $6,300
There are a lot of moving parts with the three games in the 10 o’clock hour given Golden State is on a back-to-back and potentially missing its two top scorers. The Lakers are hopeful that Doncic and Austin Reaves will return, though that news was not released as of the posting of this article. Oklahoma City is also on a back-to-back, having handled the Clippers in Los Angeles Tuesday night and taking on the Trail Blazers in Portland tonight.
For those playing on FanDuel, saving some roster slots to take advantage of any uncertainty is a key part of NBA DFS. The Stokastic NBA DFS Projections have Jonathan Kuminga for 29.5 minutes, 18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.4 stocks. This is with the assumption that Butler plays, and it will tick up around 10% to 15% if he rests his balky back.
Sacramento has a bottom-4 defense while playing at a top-10 pace, and the team just signed Precious Achiuwa to help replace injured Keegan Murray, who is likely out through Thanksgiving. Zach LaVine (back) and Domantas Sabonis (ribs) are questionable, which means that the Kings could be without two of their big three. This would boost DeMar DeRozan, Dennis Schroder and keep Russell Westbrook in the starting lineup.
Oklahoma City could see Chet Holmgren and/or Jaylin Williams rest tonight as both are working their way back to full health, and Luguentz Dort (shoulder) is also questionable. Considering that the Thunder are only 4-point road favorites, there is some credence to Holmgren missing this game. That would be a boost for Isaiah Hartenstein and be a trickledown of field goal attempts to players like Aaron Wiggins and Ajay Mitchell, along with reigning MVP Gilgeous-Alexander.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Tyrese Martin to have more than 3.5 assists tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Martin is currently listed at +128 for over 3.5 assists on FanDuel, which works out to a strong 6.5% expected ROI when compared to the +114 “true odds.” Most other books have this wager at even money, though Hard Rock (-120) and Rebet (-121) are well below that, leading to a negative 14% to 15% expected ROI.
Brooklyn is a mess this season, and coach Jordi Fernandez is dealing with a roster lacking in talent. This led to 10 or 11 players seeing court time in several games this season, which does make things a little tenuous. Martin started the last two games, playing 27.4 and 22.1 minutes. He did miss out on some fourth quarter run when the dregs of the bench were put into the game for the final 3.5 minutes. Though he had four or more assists in just two of his seven games, getting this wager with significant plus money is too good to pass up.
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