NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: T.J McConnell Plus Two More TMs?! (Nov. 28)

Friday brings more NBA Cup action with the fun getting underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Martin, Tyrese Maxey and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, November 28

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

FanDuel elected to go with the Full Monty as 11 games comprise the largest blue site tournaments. This means that while there will be no late swap on DraftKings, there could potentially be pending news for the later games on FanDuel, which could create an advantage, rather than locking in a player in the first wave of games. In this case, however, it does feel like a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Brooklyn was without Cam Thomas (hamstring) for the last nine games, and the prolific scorer is slated to be out for another two weeks at least. Tonight Michael Porter Jr. (back) will be out, though it is hard to know if this is a real injury, preventative or getting the Nets back to their losing ways after two of their three victories this season occurred in the last five games. Don’t laugh; that does count as a heater for this team.

This will be only the second game that Porter missed, with his absence leaving voids of 32.8 minutes, 17.8 field goal attempts and 25.7 points when using his averages across the nine games without Thomas. Martin did get a spot start the last time that Porter was out, though there is no guarantee that he will be with the first five tonight, and we can see on the Stokastic NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page that as of this writing, Martin is not projecting to start. If he were to start, his baseline minutes projection would move from the 23 to 25 range into the 28 to 30 range. In four of the last six games, Martin played between 24 and 26 minutes, with an 18-minute average in the other two.

Noah Clowney looks like a solid discount dandy who should see around 32 minutes with a little upside for more, and across the last nine games, he is second behind Porter with 16.7 points per game. Ziaire Williams was a DNP-CD in the last game, as coach Jordi Fernandez has been disappointed in his defense. He is currently projected to be in the starting lineup, though it would be his first of the year. Still, he does not look like anything more than placeholder value, even though he has a similar salary to Martin.

Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.

Brooklyn currently has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league, allowing 122.7 points per 100 possessions, and the Nets have been battling the Washington Wizards (122.6) for this dishonor most of the season. Philadelphia is in the bottom third of the league, and while Paul George is trending towards playing tonight after sitting on Tuesday for injury management, it is hard to see him with more than 22 to 25 minutes of run, and the team is still missing rookie VJ Edgecombe, veteran Kelly Oubre Jr., former MVP and DFS disruptor Joel Embiid, and frontcourt depth piece Trendon Watford.

This means Tyrese Maxey should continue to see heavy minutes, currently leading the league with 39.9 per game while being in the top 3 for field goal attempts (22.9), points (32.2) and assists (7.5). Sadly, both of these teams are out of the NBA Cup running, though this still is a great matchup and situation for Maxey, and the team is off tomorrow before hosting Atlanta on Sunday. Maxey projects as one of the five most popular players on DraftKings ($9,900, 44.1%) and FanDuel ($10,400, 25.8%), with the disparity in rostership rate due to the 10 additional teams comprising the FanDuel player pool.

Depending on how things break, Egor Demin and Nicolas Claxton are potential Brooklyn plays, with Andre Drummond a tertiary tournament target on DraftKings and Quentin Grimes getting the same classification on FanDuel from the other Philadelphia plays.

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Since returning eight games ago, his minutes ramped up from the low teens to 22.5 and 24.2 in the last two games. Even with an appropriately conservative 20.8 minutes tonight, he is projecting as the most popular player on the two main DFS sites. The matchup against the Wizards is phenomenal, as in addition to being among the dregs on defense, Washington has played at a top-3 pace for most of the season. Indiana has a ridiculous 123.3 implied team total, and McConnell will be heavily involved while he is on the court.

Though he doesn’t do much from beyond the arc, McConnell is all over the place on drives, back cuts and lane penetration. In the last two games, he averaged 14.5 field goal attempts, 16.0 points. 4.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.5 steals. Across his last 233 games, McConnell had a 53.7% success rate on 7.8 field goal attempts per game and a 55.5% eFG. The Pacers are so shorthanded, we should see McConnell get double-digit field goal attempts most games, and a dozen-plus is very much in the realm of attainable outcomes tonight. If everything breaks McConnell’s way, as it often does, he is a strong play tonight, though matching or coming in a little under the field makes sense, as he is currently overrepresented in tournaments by around 5%.

Jay Huff is in play as another discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,800, 36.1%), though he is an afterthought on FanDuel ($4,100, 7.7%), where we can only roster one center per lineup. He currently has the edge on Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, though foul-prone Isiah Jackson is still the starter. Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin are all secondary tournament targets across the main DFS sites.

If Kyshawn George (illness) is out for Washington, there will be more appeal for whoever replaces him in the starting lineup, with Tre Johnson and Corey Kispert also out. C.J. McCollum, Bilal Coulibaly and Alexandre Sarr can be sprinkled across tournament entries, though the Washington rotation is inconsistent in games where Khris Middleton is available, like tonight.

Sadly, both of these teams were eliminated from the NBA Cup, which was part of the impetus that had McCollum playing hefty minutes on Tuesday and scoring 46 points and pushing for a career-high 50 since point differential is a tiebreaker in the Cup format.

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• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
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• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and reserve Julian Strawther are out, which puts even more on the broad shoulders of Nikola Jokic and point guard Jamal Murray. Just when we thought Jokic was at the apex point in his career after winning three MVPs in the last five seasons and finishing second twice, he found a way to level up. Currently, he leads the league with 12.8 rebounds per game, along with his career-high 11.1 assists. He also is fifth with 29.6 points per game, and while he is unlikely to catch Luka Doncic (35.2) or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.6), it is wild that he is contending for the NBA Triple Crown. The closest any other player ever was came in 1967-68 when Wilt Chamberlain led the league in rebounds (23.8) and assists (8.6), though his 24.3 points per game fell shy of league leader Dave Bing (27.1).

Murray’s salary is up on FanDuel, which is in line with his added responsibilities, though he is in the tournament mix, as is teammate Peyton Watson, who did not see his salary catch up to his new opportunities. Nobody from the Spurs projects for double-digit popularity on FanDuel, though De’Aaron Fox ($8,700, 3.8%) is live as a tournament differentiator, possessing 50-fantasy point upside.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

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Take a bet like Jalen Williams to have more than 6.5 rebounds + assists (RA) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Williams is currently listed at +120 on BetMGM, which is well out of step with the market as most operators are in the -130 range, with FanDuel down at a ridiculous -146, mathing out to a NEGATIVE 12.2% expected ROI when compared to the -113 “true odds.” This means BetMGM is sitting at a positive expected ROI north of 15%, which is rare to see.

Tonight will be the first game of the season for Williams, who is recovering from a right-hand injury that he suffered down the stretch last year. Oklahoma City lost only one game thus far, and there was no need to bring Williams back until he was ready as the team looks to defend their title. Even with a sedate 21- to 22-minute projection for tonight, Williams still projects for 6.6 RA, and the variable range of outcomes and the outstanding odds posted on BetMGM make this too good to pass up.

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