Monday kicks off a new week with the NBA action locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel tipping off one hour later. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Jusuf Nurkic looks great on DraftKings, though he fades into obscurity on FanDuel. Karl-Anthony Towns, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren look good on both sites, plus there are a couple bonus recommendations for FanDuel, which includes the two late-games in their large-field tournaments.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Monday, November 3
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Karl-Anthony Towns: Knicks vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 45.23 | FanDuel: 43.26
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 37.0% | FanDuel: 37.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $8,400
Mitchell Robinson is not expected to play tonight as the Knicks try to keep him healthy this year. Even though he played only 13.3 minutes on Sunday, the plan is to limit back-to-back sets.
Karl-Anthony Towns has seen a slight decrease in playing time under new head coach Mike Malone, and he also is taking nearly three fewer shots than he averaged last year. It is still only a six-game sample size, and gamers can take solace in his rebounds, blocks, and steals all being similar or better to last year. Expect improvement in his 38.0% success rate from the field, as he is a 52.3% career marksman.
Since the start of last season, Towns averaged around 1.2 fantasy points per minute in 224 minutes with Robinson and a healthy 1.3 fantasy points when the big man was off the court. That may not seem like much, but for NBA DFS, that is close to a 10% increase in production, with a sizeable portion coming from rebounds.
Washington is a below-average rebounding team that also plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, with the third-worst defensive efficiency rating, allowing 119.6 points per 100 possessions. Jalen Brunson is a secondary play on DraftKings ($8,800, 12.8%), and second-year pivot man Alexandre Sarr ($6,700, 10.7%) is a tertiary target. FanDuel is including the two late games for a 10-game featured slate that thins out the player pool even more, so Towns is the only desirable play on the blue site.
For those of you looking for Monday Night Football DFS analysis, check out this F-R-E-E article on Stokastic.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jusuf Nurkic: Jazz at Celtics
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.1 | FanDuel: 27.05
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 40.6% | FanDuel: 2.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $5,400
Walker Kessler is likely out for a week or more with a shoulder issue, so Jusuf Nurkic is expected to be in the starting lineup, reprising his role from Sunday.
It is important to understand the difference between salaries, scoring systems and positional eligibility between the various DFS operators. These factors, along with an additional two games on the docket, have Nurkic barely being rostered on FanDuel, while he is likely to be a top-5 option on DraftKings.
Because only one center can be rostered on FanDuel, even with multi-positional eligibility for many players, Nurkic is only the eighth-most popular center-only option. The well-traveled post player logged 22 minutes last night as Utah emptied the bench with five minutes left in the game, trailing by nearly 20 points in Charlotte.
In a closer game, Nurkic likely would have been in the 23- to 25-minute range, which is in the realm of realistic outcomes tonight. He will go against a weak Boston frontcourt, and while Nurkic is not a great defender, he is an excellent rebounder, post scorer and a threat to collect a couple of stocks (steals plus blocks).
For FanDuel gamers, do not overlook Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe tonight as the Portland Trail Blazers host the Los Angeles Lakers, who are on a back-to-back and potentially without Deandre Ayton due to back spasms that cost him the last game and a half. Luka Doncic has a lofty $12,400 salary, though there should be enough value options to facilitate rostering him at a higher level (7.1%) than the field and an alternative to Nikola Jokic at a similar salary while freeing up the center slot for a strong fantasy point per dollar option.
Both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed in depth tonight, so sure to tune into Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ausar Thompson: Pistons at Grizzlies
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 32.95 | FanDuel: 34.79
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 27.3% | FanDuel: 32.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $6,500
Ausar Thompson is an intriguing option on the main DFS sites, with a wide range of outcomes in his fantasy profile. That bodes well for tournaments since the inconsistency tends to keep his salary at a reasonable level.
Thompson dropped 40 or more fantasy points in two of his last four outings, with a single-digit dud in the mix as well. When he is able to score 15 or more points, that plus solid rebounds and defensive stats help him unlock his upside.
Memphis plays middling defense, and the Grizzlies are up-tempo on offense. The team is without two key post players in Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, also losing significant backcourt depth in Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is not going to evenly replace Desmond Bane, and Ja Morant already was suspended for a game due to conduct detrimental to the team (aka bitching about the coaching staff). Rookie Cedric Coward is the silver lining, though he is a shooting guard and not able to help with the weakened frontcourt that is relying on Santi Aldama to log crucial minutes.
Stokastic NBA DFS Projections have Jalen Duren for 29.9 minutes, 15.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.2 stocks. He is a fantasy force when he stays out of foul trouble, and he should find success in this matchup.
Cade Cunningham is a viable tournament option, one of four players boasting a median fantasy point projection of 50-plus points, alongside Jokic, Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Tyrese Martin to score more than 7.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Martin is currently listed at -108 for over 7.5 points on Bally, Unibet and a couple other operators. We can see that most other books are in the -135 or higher range, while other operators increased the threshold to 8.5 points with -110 to -117 odds on the over. That is a swing from a stellar 5.9% positive expected ROI all the way down to a NEGATIVE 5.4%. Be a savvy shopper!
While Martin was 0-for-6 in his first start of the season yesterday, he did play a strong 27.4 minutes. Aside from that outlier, in the three other games where he played at least 19 minutes, he took eight, 10 and seven field goal attempts, scoring five, 11 and 13 points.
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