NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: The Heat is On, and That’s No Bull! (Nov. 21)

Friday rolls out another NBA Cup slate, with the fun tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including Julius Randle, Tyrese Maxey and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, November 21

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

On a positive note for the Heat, Bam Adebayo (toe) returned after a six-game injury layoff, posting a solid stat line of 20 points, seven rebounds, three assists and three stocks (combined steals and blocks), showing little rust in 28.8 minutes. This is a good matchup for him against a weak Chicago frontcourt, though it is teammate Jaime Jaquez Jr. who is projecting to be one of the most popular players for Friday’s marquee tournaments.

After being the 18th overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft, Jaquez had a strong inaugural campaign, finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. Though he was an older first-rounder as a 22-year-old, he played in 75 games, starting 20 as various teammates were injured. Last year he went from a starter to the back of the rotation to actually not even making it off the bench as he landed in coach Erik Spoelstra’s doghouse.

While he did not start in any of his 15 appearances this season, Jaquez is averaging 30.6 minutes per game, which is the third most on the team, and he is filling in wherever coach Spoelstra needs him. His 51.6% success rate from the field trails only center Kel’el Ware, and he is third at 16.8 points per game, with each figure being a career high that is well above his 47.8% and 10.3 points from his first two seasons. Jaquez is also third on the team in rebounding (6.7) and second with 5.3 assists, helping run the offense with the second unit.

Even with the well-deserved salary continuing to reach new heights, the former UCLA Bruin is in a nice matchup against the Bulls, who eschew defense, and given Wiggins and Jokic are out, Jaquez should continue to see around 30 minutes, with a 10% bump easily within reach either via a spot start or continued excellent play.

Second-year win Pelle Larsson should get a bump in minutes tonight, making him the current punt du jour on both DraftKings ($4,100, 36.9%) and FanDuel ($4,300, 26.1%). Norman Powell should see more offensive opportunities with Wiggins out, and since both teams are willing to push the ball, the projected total for this matchup currently sits at a ridiculous 250.0 points.

Josh Giddey had some crazy DFS performances already this season, and in his 12 games he averaged personal bests with 34.2 minutes, 20.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 9.7 assists. Coby White returned to action after missing 11 games to start the year, getting 30.3 and 27.5 minutes, skipping the second leg of a back-to-back earlier this week. Currently he is questionable, though that is mostly because Chicago plays against tomorrow against the Washington Wizards, with White likely to play only one of the games in the next 48 hours. If he is a go, he is a tournament differentiation option.

If White plays, it is not much of a downgrade for Giddey since it puts another capable scorer on the floor, who will spread defenses and take some of the attention away from the Australian.

Davion Mitchell is in the mix on DraftKings ($5,400, 23.4%), though he is at half that popularity on the blue site, which includes the two games in the 10 o’clock hour. Nikola Vucevic is a differentiation option on FanDuel ($7,100, 19.3%), but there are a lot of center-only options tonight.

Looking at the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, it is interesting to note that Vucevic does have the second-best leverage on FanDuel, with 12.9% tournament representation against his 13.8% likelihood of being in the “optimal” lineup.

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This is another lost season for New Orleans, and it makes sense to find out if this duo is able to coexist on the floor. The Pelicans are back home tomorrow, hosting the Atlanta Hawks, so there is a chance that Zion will sit tonight in Dallas. He is not currently on the injury report, though in his five games before his absence, there were no back-to-back sets, so this is just supposition at this time. It is worth noting that Queen had a career-high 30 points with nine rebounds, four assists and four stocks in 30.3 minutes on Wednesday in the first game with Williamson in the starting lineup.

Fortunately, any breaking news and the vagaries between the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed on the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube. So tune in for up-to-date expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!

• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Expect everyone to be available tonight, save for Jonathan Kuminga (knee). This matchup, along with the Oklahoma City Thunder in Utah against the Jazz, is not on the DraftKings main slate. Players have been someone underrepresented in tournaments from the “added” games on the blue site over the last two weeks, as it appears not a lot of content covering the FanDuel “bonus” tilts.

The Warriors do not play again until Monday when the Utah Jazz will be in San Francisco, so expect the team to go all out tonight in this winnable game against the Trail Blazers. That bodes well for Butler and, of course, Stephen Curry, though things start to get dicey with the ever-evolving rotation after them and the mercurial nature of Draymond Green not being a risk to take on with an 18-team player pool.

Deni Avdija has been outstanding, but his $9,400 salary is more of a luxury than anything else tonight with less than 5% of the blue site gamers expected to roster him in tournaments. He will take a hit both for the matchup and the likely return of Jrue Holiday, who was out for the last couple of games.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Saddiq Bey to have under 3.5 rebounds tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Bey is currently listed at +115 on Hard Rock for under 3.5 rebounds, which is a nifty 9.9% expected ROI when considering the “true odds” of -105. By comparison, FanDuel, ProphetX and Rebet are offering punitive lines of -128 down to -133, and that presents a NEGATIVE 4% to 6% expected ROI.

Bey has been in and out of the rotation, and with Zion Williamson back, his minutes are uncertain, even with Karlo Matkovic and Jordan Poole’s absences thinning out the reserves. It is important to note that Bey projects for around 21 to 22 minutes and nearly four rebounds, so getting this wager at plus money is key.

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