Thursday brings a condensed four-game featured-slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Look to the trio at the top with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the standout plays.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, October 30
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Victor Wembanyama: Spurs vs. Heat
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 58.72 | FanDuel: 58.94
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 23.9% | FanDuel: 34.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,700 | FanDuel: $12,600
San Antonio remains undefeated through four games, though Victor Wembanyama was “disappointing” in the last game from a DFS perspective, failing to reach 70 fantasy points on FanDuel and 67 on DraftKings, with a season-low 50 and 52.3, respectively.
Yes, this is hyperbole since it is wild to think of what the baseline expectations and salary will be for the 21-year-old in the coming weeks and months. Running with the current median projection set as of 11:00 a.m. ET, the top lineup on DraftKings contains Wembanyama without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Giannis Antetokounmpo. On FanDuel the top lineup has SGA but neither of the other apex options.
Running out combinations that have two of the three bucks-deluxe plays results in lineups that are all within 4 fantasy points of the “optimal” on both sites. This makes for a very fun tournament slate with a variety of paths to potential glory.
Through four games, Miami leads the league with 109.1 possessions per 48 minutes, though the Heat have the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating, allowing just 106.4 points per 100 possessions. We are still dealing with very small sample sizes, but things are starting to take shape across the league as teams begin to show tendencies.
Tyler Herro is expected to be out for another two weeks, while Norman Powell (groin) is listed as doubtful and Nikola Jovic (hip) is questionable. Pelle Larsson drew the start for Powell on Tuesday, and while coach Erik Spoelstra is not afraid to shake things up after the Heat rolled to a 144-117 victory against Charlotte, expect Larsson to get the nod again tonight.
If Jovic misses the game, Jaime Jaquez Jr. should be able to hold on to a 24- to 26-minute expectation with a couple minutes of attainable upside, and Simon Fontecchio should push for 20 to 24 minutes. Fontecchio is no spring chicken, turning 30 next month, but Spoelstra was the Team USA scout for the Italian national squad and liked Fontecchio enough for the team to bring him into the fold from Detroit, in exchange for Duncan Robinson.
Bam Adebayo is a secondary play with his salary, though do not remove him from your player pool. He is yet to reach the 40-fantasy plateau, but that should be coming shortly. Davion Mitchell is in the mix on FanDuel ($5,000, 22.3%); however, he is a tertiary target on DraftKings ($5,900, 5.1%). Second-year pivot man Kel’el Ware is fine to sprinkle across lineups.
Considering the potential moving parts for Miami, be sure to tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!
Summarizing the Spurs, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Julian Champagnie are neutral on DraftKings, with Devin Vassell leading the way on FanDuel ($5,700, 33.7%) as the preferred play.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Bucks vs. Warriors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 58.01 | FanDuel: 56.42
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 17.7% | FanDuel: 26.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,100 | FanDuel: $12,200
Antetokounmpo is projecting to be less popular than Wembanyama, which gives him a little more tournament appeal if this expectation holds. The duo can be employed together on the same roster, with around 10% to 15% of gamers choosing that route.
On Tuesday, Cole Anthony led Milwaukee with nine assists; otherwise it was Antetokounmpo topping the stat sheet in points, rebounds and assists through the first four games. Golden State is favored by a bucket, so this is definitely a winnable game for the Bucks at home. Anthony is in play on DraftKings ($4,800, 16.7%) and actually appears in all of the lineup combinations with two of the big three. It would not be a surprise if his expected rostership pushed towards 30% leading up to lock.
Myles Turner, Ryan Rollins and Gary Trent Jr. are viable options, though none stand out on either of the main DFS sites.
Jimmy Butler III looks like a strong mid-tier choice, and despite not getting any free-throw attempts in the 98-79 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, he is averaging just over eight trips to the charity stripe per game. Moses Moody is questionable with a thumb injury, and if he were to miss tonight’s game, there would be more clarity with coach Steve Kerr’s potential rotation.
Stephen Curry is always a tournament target, but he looks better on FanDuel, while Jonathan Kuminga is popping up on both sites. It is hard to trust anyone off the bench with Golden State running a deep rotation.
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims Are Better Than Optimizers in Every Way
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Thunder vs. Warriors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 54.95 | FanDuel: 54.82
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 28.2% | FanDuel: 35.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $11,400
The Thunder are 15.5-point home favorites against the Washington Wizards, and while there is blowout risk, keep in mind that Chet Holmgren will be missing a second consecutive game with a back issue, Jalen Williams is unlikely to suit up before next week at the earliest and Isaiah Joe is banged up.
The Stokastic NBA DFS Projections have Gilgeous-Alexander for 32.3 minutes, 32.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 2.5 combined blocks and steals. If Oklahoma City destroys the Wizards as expected, it will likely be with SGA posting 50-plus fantasy points. There is no need to be cute and avoid him in any format.
Isaiah Hartenstein should see minutes in the upper 20s, and he is currently the most popular player on FanDuel ($6,100, 48.6%), slipping just outside the top 5 on DraftKings ($6,700, 27.2%). Ajay Mitchell looks decent as he should continue to see something approaching 15 field goal attempts and half a dozen rebounds, along with a couple stocks (combined steals and blocks).
It is hard to be enthralled with anyone on the Wizards given the nebulous and deep rotations, plus a matchup against the defending champions, who once again lead the league in defensive efficiency (103.6).
Wrapping things up, Anthony Black is the most popular player on DraftKings ($4,300, 47.1%), with the expectation that Jalen Suggs is going to rest on the early-season back-to-backs. The matchup in Charlotte is dreamy, with the Hornets playing at a top-5 pace and a bottom-10 defense. Teammate Desmond Bane is a fine play on FanDuel ($6,200, 38.1%), where his dual positional eligibility (SG/SF) is quite useful.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Gary Trent Jr. to fall below 2.5 made 3-pointers tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Trent is currently listed at -105 on Bally’s, Unibet and a couple other operators. We can also see that Rebet and NoVig are down at-139 and -136, which turns an expected 4.5% ROI into a dreadful NEGATIVE 7% or 8%, when compared to the “true odds” of -115. Be a savvy shopper!
Trent projects for 2.7 made triples tonight, so this is likely to be a close outcome, but the math is on the side of the under at these outlier lines. This is a great example of the “top-down betting” strategy recommended by Portfolio EV.
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