NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Western Conference Finals Game 1! (May 20)

Tuesday brings a new postseason matchup, with the Western Conference Finals getting underway at 8:30 p.m. ET. Let’s break down the top NBA DFS picks and key lineup building blocks on FanDuel and DraftKings. These selections reflect the most up-to-date data — and for live updates, be sure to visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, May 20

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Minnesota won each of the first two rounds in five games, so it last took the court Wednesday, wrapping things up with a 121-110 victory against Golden State. Oklahoma City finished up Game 7 with a 125-93 win that didn’t take a lot of effort, so the two-day break is probably enough to have the team close to refreshed.

The main wagering odds have the Thunder taking care of business in five or six games. Still, Denver took them to the brink, though the Nuggets have the best player on the court in any series with Nikola Jokic leading the way. Anthony Edwards is going to need to channel his inner superhero to make this a series. Yes, he was only 22 years old when he led his team to the Western Conference Finals last year, ultimately ceding way to the Dallas Mavericks in a “gentleman’s sweep” 4-1 with Luka Doncic imposing his will.

OKC has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is all but assured of being named the regular season MVP, but it is the phenomenal defense that is going to be the real obstacle to overcome for the Timberwolves. If Edwards can’t come close to 30/5/5 every game, this will likely be a quick one for Minnesota.

Who will be the player that steps up to help Edwards, if anyone, will determine if the Timberwolves can squeeze out more than one victory in this round. Julius Randle will get the first crack, but he has a tougher matchup against the likes of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, but he also has the best chance of cracking 40 fantasy points.

Rudy Gobert has the biggest risk for playing time, in turn impacting his counterpart Isaiah Hartenstein. Gobert made 66.9% of his field goal attempts this season, and he led the league in that category in three of the last seven seasons. Of course, this is mostly coming on putbacks, dunks and lobs, which are harder to come by in the playoffs. The Stifle Tower had double-digit points in both Game 5’s while averaging 5.6 points per game in the other eight.

Hartenstein averaged only 23.5 minutes in four games against Memphis, but the entire purpose for him being acquired by Oklahoma City was to handle Jokic in the playoffs. Mission accomplished, which also saw the former New York Knick averaging 27.1 minutes a game, with his three highest being 30.5, 33.2 and 33.1 ticks. He should at a minimum mark the minutes for Gobert, but this is a tenuous situation for both players.

Be sure to tune into Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock at 8:00 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis and breaking news.

Jaden McDaniels will be key in this series, helping Edwards deal with SGA and Jalen Williams on defense. We saw him breaking out on offense in the playoffs last year, and the former University of Washington stalwart stepped up this year when Randle and Donte DiVincenzo missed time with injuries. He will always be a defense-first asset, but expect him to contribute on offense this series.

Naz Reid will be the likely player to replace Gobert since he can provide offense, adequate defense and long-range scoring. FanDuel missed the boat, assigning him a delightfully low $4,400 salary, while the $6,400 on DraftKings is more appropriate for the expected scenario change with the new matchups.

DiVincenzo is a wild card who has not had a great season by his measure, plus there are so many extra backcourt defenders on OKC that he is almost always going to be facing a staunch on-ball harasser.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker should benefit via the trickledown effect of Gobert likely getting shorter minutes, and he will be on the court for extra defense anytime Edwards or McDaniels gets a break. While he is not anything special on offense, the Thunder are likely to hide their worst defender on NAW when he is on the floor.

Mike Conley is the steady veteran who should keep the offense moving while dealing with pressure against one of the best defenses that has been assembled in the last 20 years. His minutes are probably going to be in the upper 20s instead of the low 20s, but that may not make a major impact on his fantasy production. He could always drop a couple of threes and pick up a steal or two, which at his current salary would be enough to push him into optimal territory.

Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for this Showdown slate:

On DraftKings, the best SGA and Edwards lineups where they are Captains are within a 3-pointer of the current “best” build. That means there are ample paths to fantasy glory, which makes things fun on a single-game slate.

Williams was a worthy All-Star this season, though his offense has slid back from 32 points per 100 possessions in the regular season to 27 in the playoffs. Last year he averaged 18.7 points in 10 playoff games, though with just a slight uptick to 19.6 in 11 games so far. That is not bad by any stretch, but the drop from 51.6 eFG% to 48.1 eFG% in this iteration of the NBA’s second season is not what his backers have been expecting. It is important to note that the matchup against Minnesota is much tougher than that of Denver, with the likes of Edwards, McDaniels and NAW in the mix. By no means does this take Williams out of play, but it is just worth noting and using to help make informed decisions.

Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso should all see solid minutes due to their defensive skills, and each can produce enough fantasy points to make them intriguing at their respective salaries and with the potential for expanded minutes in the new series.

Holmgren could also see an uptick in run with Hartenstein slipping back as detailed above in the Gobert section. We also need to think about how Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and even Jaylin Williams could be deployed since the Timberwolves give a much different look than the Nuggets. Plus mop-up duty is very much in play for this trio, and with the Thunder nearly 8-point home favorites, that could come into the mix as well tonight given Minnesota is less likely to go all out in the fourth quarter if they are down by more than a dozen points.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.

Take Donte DiVincenzo under 1.5 made 3-pointers, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.

Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.

In the playoffs so far, beginning with Game 1 of the Lakers series, DiVincenzo had the following results on 3-pointers: 1-for-5, 0-for-2, 2-for-8, 1-for-4, 2-for-12, 1-for-7, 3-for-8, 0-for-2, 2-for-4 and 2-for-4. That works out to two-plus makes in five of the 10 games, with an overall 14 of 56 (25%) success rate. This could be over quickly or go down to the wire, but the +190 is incredibly enticing.