NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: What Do You Say, Shai?! (May 11)

Sunday has a two-game NBA slate with an early 3:30 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks: Both of the home teams are sitting with 2-1 leads, though the Game 5’s will be back on the favorites’ floor. This should make for some intense action, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic pulling out all the stops in the early game, and Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers trying to find answers for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley.

These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, May 11

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a whopping 24 potential assists on Friday, though his teammates only converted seven into actual buckets. He had 17 potential assists in Game 2 and 20 in the series opener, which shows how much the offense is flowing through him in the postseason. That gives him a nice baseline, allowing his scoring to be his path to upside, which is aided by the Nuggets keeping things close this afternoon.

Jokic missed all 10 of his 3-point attempts and committed eight turnovers. Even though this may have been his “worst” game ever, he still had 20 points, 16 rebounds, six assists and four “stocks” (combined steals and blocks), and his team rallied around him to get the victory. There is a reason he is the reigning and three-time NBA MVP, and probably should have more.

Michael Porter Jr. continues to deal with his left shoulder injury, which makes rebounding difficult, and even getting a comfortable shot off consistently is tricky since he has trouble raising his off arm above his head. He had a strong game, tallying 21 points on 7 of 10 from the field and 5 of 6 from 3-point range, along with eight rebounds. It was nice to see everything come together, but he is going to be managing his injury and discomfort for at least the remainder of this series.

Aaron Gordon was also excellent with 22 points, eight rebounds, five assists and a steal, and the do-everything wing filled in all over the court. Despite the defensive attention from SGA, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and even some Luguentz Dort, Jamal Murray was sublime with 27 points on 9-for-19 shooting, four boards, eight dimes, four steals and a block. Expect the defense to be all over him again, making this another tough recommendation.

Russell Westbrook saw his playing time slide towards Porter, though that is not a guarantee to happen again this afternoon. He was still able to contribute in his 22 minutes, but we had not seen this downside in the first two games, even though it has been pointed out as a possibility all postseason.

Payton Watson got a couple extra minutes as a reward for his productivity, splashing two troikas, corralling five caroms and blocking two shots. That was an upside outcome, though he remains a viable discount dandy with appropriate expectations. Christian Braun is a neutral option, deferring to everyone else when it comes to offense, which caps his upside appeal.

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 32 points while chipping in across the box score, and Chet Holmgren showed out with a steal and three blocks as the roving defender. He also had 18 points and 16 rebounds in his best postseason performance to date. This duo is very much in play, particularly with their salary savings when compared to Jokic and SGA.

Dort fouled out, which is a risk since he is being asked to guard all five positions, while Isaiah Hartenstein just barely cleared the double-double hurdle. From a point-per-dollar perspective, reserves Caruso and Wallace are not far behind this duo, with each likely to push for around 20 minutes while competing with each other for another 6 to 8 in upside.

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Darius Garland was clearly hampered by his sore big left toe, playing 25 minutes and not anywhere near his usual level of production. Of course, even limited, he is still a better option than Ty Jerome to help Cleveland continue the comeback in the hopes of earning the equalizer tonight.

Evan Mobley looked a bit tentative at first, but the Defensive Player of the Year finished strong with 18 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, three steals and three blocks. The Pacers did not have an answer for him in the paint, particularly with Jarrett Allen making them pay when all the focus was on Mobley. Allen had 19 points, 12 rebounds, two assists and two blocks in 31 minutes. Head coach Kenny Atkinson does a great job of staggering their minutes but also having them mesh well together on the court.

Max Strus had 20 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and a block, which was an apex game for the former Miami wing. Do not expect this to become a new baseline, and while he will have the first crack at 30 minutes, any ineffectiveness or a hot hand from Jerome or Sam Merrill will cut into his upside.

The rest of the reserves are hard to trust, including De’Andre Hunter, who has more of a defensive focus when he is on the court with the regulars.

Be sure to tune into Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock at 2:30 p.m. ET this afternoon for all of the up-to-date analysis and breaking news.

Tyrese Haliburton was not assertive at all, which was pointed out in Friday’s article as being a major risk for his DFS production and, more importantly, Indiana managing to emerge as the series winner. He attempted only eight shots and just one was from long range. Coach Rick Carlisle shouldered the blame, but this is a scenario that has been happening all season.

Haliburton is a legitimate All-Star and excellent facilitator, but when he is not pushing things on offense, the whole scheme can fall apart. That is masked in the lengthy regular season against inferior opponents, though it gets magnified exponentially against one of the best defenses in the game. Among the top options today, Haliburton is one of the most difficult decision points, particularly on DraftKings where he is projecting to be on only 15.8% of all tournament rosters. Per the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, he has positive leverage, indicating he is underrepresented in tournaments when measured against his realistically attainable upside.

Bennedict Mathurin is one of the best values on DraftKings ($4,100, 40.0%), though he barely cracks the top 15 on FanDuel ($4,600, 33.1%). Andrew Nembhard gets the nod on the blue site ($5,800, 41.4%), but he slides outside the top 15 on DraftKings ($5,900, 24.9%).

TJ McConnell is fine as a discount dandy, though he is mostly limited to the minutes vacated by Haliburton. Aaron Nesmith has a larger role, but he is more focused on defense, despite being an average point generator.

Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner have appropriate salaries and neither stands out, other than having secure minutes. Obi Toppin is a viable punt option who can generate quick offense and collect rebounds, but his shortcomings on defense curb his appeal. That said, mop-up duty is a potential path to production.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.

Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 47.5 points today, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.

Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.

Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.

Even for the presumptive MVP, getting to 48 PRA at altitude is a tough ask. In the last game, which went to overtime, SGA played 45 minutes and recorded 18 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists for 38 PRA. Game 2 saw him with 30 minutes in a lopsided home victory, racking up 34 points, four rebounds and eight assists for 46 PRA, and in the opener, he was on the court for nearly 40 ticks, recording a near triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists for 51 PRA. That is three strong outings but 48 PRA only once.

There are fewer possessions in the postseason, and, of course, the entire team is healthy, taking away the need for Gilgeous-Alexander to do everything himself. Plus, those taking the under are hopeful that he will continue to set up his teammates as a facilitator because even if his passes are converting to assists, those add up far more slowly than Gilgeous-Alexander doing the scoring himself.