Monday brings a new week, along with a fresh set of NBA matchups, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including Karl-Anthony Towns, Jalen Duren, Andre Drummond and other fun decision points. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Monday, November 17
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Karl-Anthony Towns: Knicks at Heat
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 53.02 | FanDuel: 50.46
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 53.6% | FanDuel: 37.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $9,500
Jalen Brunson (ankle) is likely to miss another week, and it sounds like O.G. Anunoby (hamstring) will be out for the remainder of November.
Since the start of last year, Karl-Anthony Towns averaged around 1.2 fantasy points per minute when sharing the court with Brunson and Anunoby, though that leapt to nearly 1.7 fantasy points in 500 minutes without those teammates.
In the last five games without Bam Adebayo (toe), Miami allowed nearly 120 points per 100 possessions. Prior to Adebayo’s injury, the Heat were third in the league with a 106.3 defensive efficiency rating, though the team played at the fastest pace in the league during this stretch with 107.3 possessions per 48 minutes.
Kel’el Ware is a better help defender than someone equipped to deal with Towns, but he will do his best to keep up. In his last seven games, KAT had 50-plus FanDuel points four times while getting to that mark five times on DraftKings, courtesy of the double-double bonus and fewer punitive deductions for turnovers.
Josh Hart is intriguing, having logged a triple-double off the bench after getting an uptick in minutes after Anunoby was injured just five minutes into the game. He is in play even if he maintains a reserve role. Landry Shamet had a career-high 37 points off the bench on 12 of 19 (63%) from the field, including half of his 12 3-pointers.
For Miami, Davion Mitchell is a neutral play on DraftKings, along with Norman Powell, though both are solid secondary targets on FanDuel and joined by Andrew Wiggins.
If you are looking for Monday Night Football DFS analysis, check out this F-R-E-E article here.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jalen Duren: Pistons vs. Pacers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.74 | FanDuel: 43.24
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 27.2% | FanDuel: 12.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200
Jalen Duren has been out for a week with a sprained ankle, though it sounds like the team was taking a cautious approach. He is listed as questionable, but indications are that he will suit up tonight. Cade Cunningham (hip) also missed the last few games, and while he is questionable, he may not be quite ready to return to action.
Prior to his injury, Duren had a stellar seven-game stretch, averaging 34.1 minutes and 12.3 field goal attempts with a ridiculous 67.4% conversion rate. This resulted in 22.9 points, 13.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.2 stocks (combined steals and blocks), accompanied by six double-doubles. The budding big man is not as popular on FanDuel, with the blue site including the 9:00 p.m. ET game where the Chicago Bulls head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. That puts Nikola Vucevic in play, though he saw 41 minutes of run in Salt Lake City last night. Nikola Jokic is, of course, the crown jewel on most slates, and he has taken his efficiency to a whole new level. The Nuggets are 14.5-point home favorites, so blowout risk is a looming factor.
Both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, so tune in for up-to-date expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate your NBA DFS picks today!
Bennedict Mathurin is getting closer to a return, though the Pacers are still without Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, Quenton Jackson and Jonny Furphy. The frontcourt is not equipped to deal with the likes of Duren and even Isaiah “Beef Stew” Stewart, with Tony Bradley, Jay Huff and Isaiah Jackson all better used as 12-minutes-a-game backup post players and not having to hold down this position collectively.
If Cunningham is back, he should be mostly a full-go as there is no need for the team to risk him when it is eyeing a deep postseason run. If he is out, then Javonte Green and Ron Holland II will see some trickledown minutes, though it is likely better value options will emerge from other teams throughout the day.
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- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
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- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Andre Drummond: 76ers vs. Clippers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 33.98 | FanDuel: 33.86
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 36.9% | FanDuel: 31.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $5,700
For those not interested in Duren or Jokic, Andre Drummond and Ivica Zubac will be squaring off tonight in the City of Brotherly Love. It is always fun when “traditional” bigs matchup since they tend to mark each other’s minutes.
Zubac is averaging 31.3 minutes per game, down only slightly from his 32.8 of last year, despite the addition of Brook Lopez and John Collins to provide additional frontcourt options and keep Zubac fresher for the postseason. Drummond started the last three games for Philadelphia with Joel Embiid out once again, and in these game he averaged 34.7 minutes, 14.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.4 stocks. He is still at an appealing salary, though not quite the same value he was from the low $5,000s.
James Harden continues to put up big numbers with Kawhi Leonard injured and Norman Powell now in South Beach. Similarly, Tyrese Maxey has to shoulder a larger load this season, and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is out, further weakening the rotation. That means more minutes and opportunities for Quentin Grimes and rookie VJ Edgecombe, with Trendon Watford and Dominick Barlow helping fill in for injured backup center Adam Bona.
If Kris Dunn remains in the starting lineup for Los Angeles, he is a potential discount dandy, as is Bogdan Bogdanovic, who played himself back into the rotation. Coach Tyronn Lue is forever fickle and constantly tinkering with things, which does add to the in-game risk of being benched for the back of the rotation.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take a bet like Josh Giddey to have fewer than 21.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Giddey is currently listed at -110 on Hard Rock, which is a favorable 5.8% expected ROI when considering the “true odds” of -124. Several other books have this at -135, while other operators lowered the threshold to 20.5 at -125 to -138, which is a worse line for a lower target, leading to a NEGATIVE 6% to 9% expected ROI.
Giddey missed a week with an ankle injury, returning to action last night with a hefty 42.3 minutes in the double overtime 150-147 loss to the Jazz in Utah. Tonight is the tougher leg of the “elevation back-to-back” as the Bulls are playing in Denver. Giddey tallied 22-plus points in three of his 10 appearances this season, giving more cause to consider the under at the terrific line on Hard Rock.
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