Tuesday features a two-game NBA slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET lock on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s break down the top NBA DFS picks and key lineup building blocks. These selections reflect the most up-to-date data — and for live updates, be sure to visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, May 13
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Evan Mobley: Cavaliers vs. Pacers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 40.43 | FanDuel: 40.39
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 39.3% | FanDuel: 45.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,900
Tonight we are looking at a pair of Game 5 matchups, with Cleveland facing elimination on its home court and Oklahoma City hoping to regain the advantage before heading to Denver for Game 6 on Thursday.
The main wrinkle for tonight is the availability and effectiveness of Donovan Mitchell, who had been dealing with a calf strain, though it was a sprained left ankle that ended his night on Sunday in the second quarter. Currently, Mitchell is a game-time decision, and there is no word on his potential effectiveness. Fortunately, this is the first game of the night, so be sure to tune into Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock at 6 p.m. ET tonight for all of the up-to-date analysis and breaking news.
If Mitchell is out, then Ty Jerome should see extra minutes, along with Sam Merrill as the most likely sources of offense. If coach Kenny Atkinson chooses to focus on defense, it could be Dean Wade or Isaac Okoro who end ups in the starting lineup.
Darius Garland was clearly hampered by his toe issue, though he gamely went 27 minutes, scoring 21 points and handing out half a dozen helpers. The facilitation role will be his alone if Mitchell is out, boosting his DFS potential.
Evan Mobley has been outstanding when healthy and pairs nicely with Jarrett Allen. This duo will end up taking on more of an offensive load if Mitchell is out, and both are strong options in any scenario.
De’Andre Hunter will likely be the first reserve off the bench with Jerome, though he is not particularly enticing for DFS purposes with his defense-first role and appropriate salary.
Most of the Indiana starters were on the bench by the end of the third quarter, basking in the upset victory. It is still surprising that the team has Cleveland on the edge of elimination, despite Tyrese Haliburton mostly playing a distributor role and not attacking the basket. Currently, the sportsbooks have the Cavaliers as 7.5-point home favorites, which seems to indicate expectations are that Mitchell will be playing and mostly effective. If coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t get more from Haliburton, the tide could turn.
Setting aside Game 4, which saw Haliburton play just 26 minutes, he took eight shots in Game 3 and only 11 in Game 2. Indiana has a balanced squad, but it needs its point guard to be the lead offensive option in key moments, and we have seen him all too happy to be complacent throughout the regular season and even in the playoffs. Carlisle has even recognized that this needs to change, but it hasn’t yet.
Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner are the two most popular Pacers on DraftKings, while Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard have the honor on FanDuel, with Siakam, Turner and Aaron Nesmith within 3% of Nembhard. This makes for a salt-to-taste situation, as the bulk of the Indiana roster is neutral when considering probable production, position eligibility and price.
TJ McConnell and Obi Toppin join Bennedict Mathurin as the key reserves, with Mathurin having angered his Game 4 supporters after being ejected following one minute of action for striking Hunter. He will remain the offensive threat off the bench while Toppin sees some minutes backing up the frontcourt, and McConnell should be on the court anytime Haliburton gets a break. Ben Sheppard got extra run in mop-up time while also filling in for Mathurin as the game was competitive. He is unlikely to get 29 minutes again, but it was good to see him perform well when he had the chance.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for this sample slate:
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets at Thunder
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 63.55 | FanDuel: 60.27
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 36.8% | FanDuel: 33.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $11,500
Oklahoma City has done a good job with keeping Nikola Jokic contained, aside from his 40-20 monster in Game 1. In the three subsequent games, he shot just 14 of 41 (34%) from the field, with 18.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists and three “stocks” (combined steals and blocks).
Even with the attention of the defense, including a mix of Isaiah Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort and even a few switches from Alex Caruso, Jokic is still a three-time and reigning MVP, and he has the ability to singlehandedly destroy the slate. That does not come without a huge allocation of salary cap, though it is also what is keeping him projected to be on only one-third of all tournament entries.
The Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool has Jokic among the top 3 players with the best leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel, indicating that he is underrepresented in tournaments. Haliburton has the lead on FanDuel, while it is Chet Holmgren who holds the cards on DraftKings. After racking up nine blocks and six steals in the first three games, Holmgren did not have any on Sunday. He did have 13 rebounds but only 8 points in his 29 minutes. Expect a bounce back tonight and, per the Boom/Bust Tool, a solid differentiation option in the former Gonzaga Bulldog.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-best median fantasy point projection, behind Jokic, which is no surprise for the presumptive first-time NBA MVP. SGA finished second in the voting last year, and he has been battling with Jokic all season for the ultimate individual honor. Gilgeous-Alexander played 38-plus minutes in three of the four games this series, save for the 149-106 runaway. This gives him plenty of time to score and also collect peripheral stats, making him a key foundational play, along with Mobley.
Hartenstein has been solid battling Jokic in the paint, and he is live for a double-double plus a chance for a 30-fantasy point effort with a little luck. Even though he only has center eligibility on FanDuel, he is projecting to be on nearly one-third of all lineups, just below Jokic.
Jalen Williams is a savvy pivot for those who do not quite have the salary cap to get to Gilgeous-Alexander while crafting an otherwise perfect lineup. The do-everything wing continues to chip in across the board, and he is the secondary scoring threat for the squad. Caruso and Cason Wallace are the safer plays off the bench, with Aaron Wiggins also in contention, though he seems to need mop-up duty to get to his upside.
Closing out the Nuggets, Jamal Murray gets a shoutout for battling against Dort, Caruso, Wallace and, of course, Gilgeous-Alexander, helping take some of the scoring load off of Jokic. Admittedly, Your Ol’ Pal still hasn’t been able to get behind rostering him on more than a smattering of lineups, but it is important to acknowledge how Murray has been solid, despite the tough row to hoe.
Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook will each play around 25 minutes while battling over another 25 that tend to go to the more effective player. Porter is still dealing with his left shoulder issue, though he is clearly hampered, and aside from a 21-point, eight-rebound outburst in Game 3, he has 13 points and 18 rebounds in the other three games combined.
Westbrook was just 2 of 12 (17%) from the field on Sunday, with OKC more than happy to let him go for the gusto. The Nuggets put up just 87 points as a team, so the blame is not Westbrook’s, but it needs to be noted that he was -15 in his 27 minutes, while Porter was +15 in his 34, with both getting all of the 5.5 minutes when Jokic was on the bench.
Speaking of the bench, Peyton Watson is fine as a punt option, though it is hard to consider anyone else for the two-game slate. On the single-game showdown nightcap, Julian Strawther is in play as a discount dandy.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.
Take Nikola Jokic under 51.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) tonight, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.
Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.
Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.
This is an appropriate target for Jokic, with the -120 accounting for the probability that he will fall shy of 52 PRA. He has cleared this threshold only once this series, though he is live to get there with his heavy minutes and usage. This wager is likely to go down to the wire as both teams are feeling the heat, but the math is on the side of the under.
