NFL DFS is getting harder every year. The field is getting better and better at projecting the best plays, which makes game theory even more important. The two most important elements of game theory in DFS are roster construction and ownership. Let’s take a look at Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections to see who the field is playing the most at each position for Week 3’s main NFL DFS slate at DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Ownership Report: DraftKings NFL DFS Main Slate Week 3
Quarterback DFS Ownership
The best game environment this Sunday is the matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings. The field is taking notice. Kirk Cousins ($6,900) is expected to be the highest-owned quarterback on DraftKings by a wide margin. Cousins is coming in at 14.8% owned, which is over four percentage points higher than Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) at 10.4%.
Cousins is getting nearly twice the ownership of Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000). He is also picking up double the ownership of his opponent, Justin Herbert ($7,500), in addition to Lamar Jackson ($7,700) who are at 7.4% and 7.1%, respectively. The attention on Cousins comes from the high total expected in the Vikings-Chargers game in addition to the affordable and high projected stacking options on both sides of the ball.
Running Back DFS Ownership
The passing attack may be the target in Vikings-Chargers, but several other teams with high totals are expected to keep it on the ground. Tony Pollard ($8,009) tops the NFL DFS ownership for Week 3 at 18.1%. He’s a high-priced, spend-up option, but the Dallas Cowboys have a 28-point implied total against the Arizona Cardinals. If they reach that mark, it’s a good bet that Pollard will rack up yardage and find his way into the end zone.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900) is right alongside Pollard in ownership this week. He doesn’t project as well as Pollard but comes in at a mid-range price tag. Miles Sanders ($5,700) and Jerome Ford ($4,800) are two of the top value plays at running back for NFL DFS this week, with ownership that reflects that. Sanders projects for 15.5% ownership and Ford is at 13.9%. Both backs have question marks. Sanders is leading the Panthers backfield in usage, but their offense has failed to generate points. Ford could have an incredible workload for the Browns with Nick Chubb out, but the team also signed Kareem Hunt ($4,600) to join their running back room. Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,700) rounds out the list at 13.3%.
Wide Receiver DFS Ownership
Given the ownership on Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert, it’s no surprise to see three receivers from that game at the top of the NFL DFS ownership list at the position. Justin Jefferson ($9,300) has the highest projected ownership at 24.9%. He is the highest-priced player on DraftKings, but that doesn’t seem to be stopping anyone from paying up for the star receiver. Tyreek Hill ($9,000) is currently picking up 20% ownership, followed by Keenan Allen ($7,600) at 18.7% and Mike Williams ($6,000) at 14.3%.
It’s clear that a significant portion of the field has their eyes on that game environment, and the pass catchers are going to be owned as one-offs as much as they will be owned as part of Minnesota or L.A. stacks. CeeDee Lamb ($7,700) is coming in fifth in NFL DFS ownership at the receiver position. Dak Prescott has not been shy about finding Lamb in the early going, targeting him seventeen times in the first two weeks.
Tight End DFS Ownership
Travis Kelce ($7,200) had one of his worst weeks in recent memory in Week 2. The game was the season debut for Kelce, who sat out Kansas City’s first game with a hyperextended knee. Kelce did drop a touchdown pass in that game that would have salvaged his day from a fantasy-point perspective. The field is certainly not letting short-term bias creep into their decision-making. He is expected to be the highest-owned tight end on DraftKings NFL DFS this Sunday at 16%.
Kelce is followed by Mark Andrews ($6,000) who checks in at 14.1% ownership. The NFL DFS ownership projections at tight end get a little more spread out after those two. T.J. Hockenson ($6,500) comes in at 8.5%, followed by two spend-down options: Chig Okonkwo ($3,200) at 7.8% and Durham Smythe ($2,900) at 7.6%.
Defense DFS Ownership
At defense, one unit stands out in this NFL DFS ownership report. The Arizona Cardinals ($2,300) look to be getting the most ownership in a tough spot against the Dallas Cowboys. Their 9.1% ownership is due to their price tag, which is about the lowest you’ll see on DraftKings. The Cardinals’ defense also offers DFS players direct leverage against a high-owned Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.
The Arizona defense is followed by the Buffalo Bills ($2,900) at 8.3%, the New York Jets at 7.8% and the Washington Commanders ($2,400) at 6.2%. The projected fifth most-popular option at the position for NFL DFS in Week 3: the Kansas City Chiefs ($3,900). The Chiefs are the first spend-up to make the list. They will be expensive, but they have an enticing matchup against sack-prone Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears.
