Building winning DraftKings lineups in NFL DFS comes down to balancing chalk, leverage and correlation with your stacks. To help guide your process for Week 4, we analyzed the top 300 lineups from Stokastic’s latest run of NFL DFS Sims. Below we’ll highlight the most important exposures, pointing out which quarterbacks are driving stack constructions, which wide receivers and running backs are commanding the most attention, and where to find leverage opportunities for tournaments.
NFL DFS Week 4 Picks: Best Stacks and Leverage Plays from Stokastic’s Sims
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Quarterback Trends in NFL DFS Week 4
Matthew Stafford (57 lineups, 19%) leads all quarterbacks, so the Sims are leaning heavily into the Rams’ passing game. Stafford stacks are most often paired with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
Other high-exposure quarterbacks include:
- Drake Maye (44 lineups, 14.7%) – a surprising pivot who offers salary relief and stacking flexibility.
- Geno Smith (37, 12.3%) – Raiders stacks project well in general with Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers.
- Caleb Williams (33, 11%) and Justin Herbert (30, 10%) – both bring ceiling outcomes but are less concentrated than Stafford.
Tournament players looking for leverage may find value with Patrick Mahomes (21 lineups, 7%). Anytime Mahomes projects under 10% ownership, he has to be in the pivot conversation.
Running Back Exposures: Chalk vs. Differentiators
No shocker here: Christian McCaffrey (92 lineups at RB, plus 33 in Flex) dominates exposure. He’s the clear RB1 in the Sims, appearing in nearly 40% of all top builds.
The other backs that stand out:
- Omarion Hampton (98 lineups) – this is the top salary-saver. His combination of workload and value pricing makes him unavoidable in Week 4 DFS builds.
- James Cook III (38 RB + 56 RB2 spots) – versatile usage puts him squarely in the optimal range.
- Jonathan Taylor (47 combined) – healthy workload but carries ownership risk.
For leverage, Bijan Robinson (16) and Saquon Barkley (12) are ways to flip roster construction. Both appear far less frequently in the Sims but have 25-plus-point ceilings.
Wide Receiver Stacks and One-Offs
No position has a greater impact on Week 4 lineup shaping than wide receiver.
- Davante Adams (94 + 109 appearances across WR1/WR2) is everywhere. Adams is a common stacking partner for Stafford and also often appears as a one-off. He’ll be mega-chalk. Here’s the thing, though: He’s questionable. That’s all the more reason to get the Sims so you have the most up-to-date data!
- Puka Nacua (69 WR1 + 22 Flex) pairs directly with Stafford and appears with plenty of other quarterbacks as well.
- Chris Olave (29 WR1 + 59 WR2) – a steady secondary option, especially in lineups that pivot off Adams.
- Tetairoa McMillan (57 WR2 + 28 WR3) is a name to watch. His high exposure makes him a key breakout candidate in Week 4 NFL DFS picks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (24 WR1) and Drake London (34 across WR slots) also offer elite ceilings at slightly reduced exposure levels.
Tight End Strategy
The Sims show heavy clustering at tight end:
- Kyle Pitts Sr. (67) and Hunter Henry (53) dominate the pool, often appearing in salary-balanced lineups.
- Juwan Johnson (39) and Tyler Warren (37) are mid-tier plays offering modest ceilings.
- Dalton Schultz (31) rounds out the consistent exposures.
For tournament leverage, Brock Bowers (15) or Sam LaPorta (9) provide contrarian upside pivots.
The Flex pool highlights which players project for multi-positional exposure:
- Jakobi Meyers (55 Flex appearances) – consistently sneaks into lineups.
- Rome Odunze (20) – another WR who fits into secondary stacks.
- Tre Tucker (11) – deep-sleeper exposure that could pay off in large-field tournaments.
Defense and Special Teams
DST is often overlooked, but exposures tell a clear story:
- Lions (128 lineups, 42%) dominate the builds. This is the chalk defense of Week 4.
- Texans (42) and Browns (28) are the primary pivots.
- If you’re hunting leverage, Titans (25) or Patriots (23) could pay off by flipping defensive variance.
Key Takeaways for NFL DFS Week 4 Picks
- Stafford + Nacua + Adams is the chalk stack. If you’re running it, build with unique secondary pieces.
- Hampton is the slate’s most important value play. Decide whether you want to eat that chalk or pivot.
- Adams is in everything. If he busts, entire swaths of the field fall with him, making contrarian pivots extremely valuable.
- Tight end is condensed. Play Pitts or Henry for safety, but Schultz or LaPorta for leverage.
- Lions DST chalk. Ownership leverage comes from Texans or Titans.
