The NFL season is short, and with just 18 weeks, every slate matters. Last week, we swung big with an A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts pairing, and we’re going right back to the well in Week 4 with three different builds that aim to capture tournament-winning upside. This week’s NFL DFS picks have one simple goal: Use Stokastic Sims and sharp stacking strategies to build the NFL DFS perfect lineup.
NFL DFS Week 4 Picks: Build the Perfect DraftKings Lineup with Sims
The Rams Stack With Upside
Our first lineup leans on one of the league’s most concentrated passing attacks: The Los Angeles Rams. Matthew Stafford has locked onto Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who have combined for over 70% of the Rams’ targets and 83% of the team’s air yards. Nacua’s 38.5% target share is among the highest in the NFL, while Adams, despite producing under expectation, remains a bargain at just $6,200.
Do note that Adams is questionable this week, however.
The build pairs Stafford with Nacua and Adams, then runs it back with Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren of the Colts. Pittman ranks top 10 in yards per route run and has emerged as a reliable option for Daniel Jones, who faces an undermanned Rams secondary missing key pieces. This construction starts chalky, but Pittman’s lower ownership keeps it unique enough.
Raiders Passing Game Value
The second lineup goes in a very different direction with Geno Smith at quarterback. The Raiders passing game doesn’t inspire much confidence at first glance, but the Bears defense provides a perfect matchup. Chicago ranks 30th in pass rush win rate and has a secondary stretched thin by injuries. Without pressure up front, Smith should have time to find his weapons.
Pairing Smith with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers creates a low-cost stack with upside. Bowers, priced under $6,000, is due for positive regression, while Meyers continues to command solid target volume. Rome Odunze comes back on the other side as a high-value play with a 28% target share and 41% of his team’s air yards. Caleb Williams’ efficiency on deep passes makes Odunze a natural fit for this lineup.
A Contrarian Drake Maye Build
The third lineup embraces risk, centering on rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Despite turnovers last week, Maye has shown both passing and rushing upside. His connection with Hunter Henry adds sneaky touchdown potential at a bargain price. Henry’s 21% target share is valuable, especially against a Carolina defense that struggles to defend tight ends.
The real contrarian angle comes with TreVeyon Henderson. After New England’s veteran backs lost multiple fumbles last week, Henderson could be in line for an expanded role. At just $5,200 against a weak Carolina run defense, he provides explosive upside at minuscule ownership. Running it back with Tetairoa McMillan gives this stack even more balance.
Lineup 1 – Rams Chalk Stack
Lineup 2 – Raiders Value Stack
Lineup 3 – Patriots Contrarian Stack
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