Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season has arrived and we’re getting closer and closer to the main slate lock on DraftKings and FanDuel. Stokastic has continued to update player projections throughout the week, so let’s see which NFL DFS upside picks the data is backing this Sunday.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 11 High-Upside Picks & Boom Plays
See below to get a better understanding of the boom and bust tool and the terminology that will be referenced throughout.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
Now, on to the Week 11 NFL DFS picks!
Quarterback: Brock Purdy
DraftKings – $5,800; 9.7% Boom | FanDuel – $7,500; 6.2% Boom
Brock Purdy has one of the highest boom probabilities at the quarterback position at 9.7% on DraftKings and 6.2% on FanDuel for a Week 11 home encounter with the Buccaneers. He’s showing in 11.9% of optimal lineups on DraftKings and 9.4% of optimal lineups on FanDuel.
The 49ers’ QB is coming off one of his most efficient games of the season in which he completed 19-of-26 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in a convincing road win over Jacksonville. He’s up to 2,329 passing yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs on the year.
Once again this week the 49ers are a top team to target with NFL DFS stacks, and Purdy will have his full complement of weapons to work with, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. San Francisco is implied for 27 points and favored by 11.5 for Sunday’s battle with Tampa Bay.
Running Back: Devin Singletary
DraftKings – $5,300; 22.0% Boom | FanDuel – $6,500; 15.6% Boom
A week after torching the Bengals defense for 161 all-purpose yards and a touchdown at very low DFS ownership, Devin Singletary finds himself at the top of NFL boom probability among all running backs for Week 11. His salaries are still at more than approachable levels on both DraftKings and FanDuel ahead of Sunday’s meeting with the Cardinals.
Fellow back Dameon Pierce returned to practice this week but is not quite ready to return to the fold, paving the way for Singletary to claim the majority of the work out of the backfield again. It’s a nice-looking spot for the Texans on Sunday at home, with Houston implied for 26 points and favored by four points.
The OddsShopper’s player prop pages show Singletary’s rushing yards prop at 74.5, and he has a receiving yards prop of 9.5. The Houston RB is at -120 to find the endzone in Week 11.
Wide Receiver: Tyreek Hill
DraftKings – $9,300; 13.3% Boom | FanDuel – $9,800; 15.4% Boom
Any time he’s on a slate, we know Tyreek Hill is going to cost a pretty penny. But, more often than not, he ends up being worth the high asking prices due to his unmatched week-to-week ceiling, not just at wide receiver but at any position. It’s a scary proposition fading Hill entirely given what he’s capable of producing for NFL DFS purposes.
True to form, Week 11 boom probability ratings show Hill with high boom probabilities of 13.3% on DraftKings and 15.4% on FanDuel, and he’s showing in 14.1% of optimal lineups on DK and 14.9% of optimal lineups on FD for an unimposing matchup at home against the Raiders. Las Vegas has managed to turn things around in recent weeks but is still not a team to fear.
Hill, who’s already up to 69 receptions for 1,076 yards and eight touchdowns on the year, is at an ownership projection of 17% on DraftKings and is at close to 14% on FanDuel as he looks to bounce back following a quiet Week 10 (62 receiving yards vs. KC) by his standards.
Tight End: Trey McBride
DraftKings – $4,400; 24.7% Boom | FanDuel – $5,900; 16.4% Boom
After a cold start to the 2023 season, Trey McBride has started to find his stride in the Arizona offense. He’s totaled 21 receptions on 28 targets for 248 receiving yards over the last three games and has become a reliable safety blanket for whoever’s been under center for the Cardinals.
Kyler Murray returned from injury last week, and even though he didn’t have his best outing, he connected early and often with his trusted tight end for eight catches and 131 yards in a 25-23 home win over the Falcons. Now Murray, McBride and the Cardinals will square off with the Texans, with Arizona implied for 22 points in a game that has a total of 47.5 points.
Currently, McBride owns a 24.7% boom probability on DraftKings and a 16.4% boom probability on FanDuel, while showing in 25.5% of optimal lineups on DK and 17.5% of optimal lineups on FD for Week 11 NFL DFS.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 11 Lower-Upside Situation
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for NFL DFS. Each week we will take a look at a seemingly less exciting game to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Giants/Commanders
This matchup between the Giants and Commanders has the week’s lowest total at right around 38 points, with Washington implied for 24 points as a team and New York implied for 14.
Let’s look through the NFL DFS boom/ bust probability data to hone in on the best picks within this game.
Commanders D/ST (12.7%)
Terry McLaurin (9.8%)
Logan Thomas (9.5%)
Brian Robinson Jr. (9.3%)
Giants D/ST (6.9%)
Meanwhile, Giants running back Saquon Barkley is at a 6.6% boom probability for Week 11 DraftKings NFL DFS.
Shifting over to FanDuel, we see:
Commanders D/ST (13.9%)
Giants D/ST (9.8%)
Brian Robinson Jr. (5.9%)
Logan Thomas (5.4%)
Saquon Barkley (5.3%)
We recommend going through the entirety of the boom and bust data across all positions as you finalize your lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Projections will continue to be updated all the way until lock, so make sure to check back to Stokastic’s tools for the most up-to-date data.
As a general reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups.
Best of luck with your NFL DFS teams in Week 11!
Stokastic Week 11 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic Discord
