It’s Week 12 of the season and the NFL DFS prize pools on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel are massive as usual. To take down these tournaments we’ll need to find the high-upside NFL DFS picks that can help us finish first, so let’s try to do just that using Stokastic’s boom and bust probability tool.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 12 High-Upside Picks & Boom Plays
See below for a brief legend on the boom/bust tool and the terminology that will be referenced throughout the article.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
Now, on to the Week 12 NFL DFS picks!
Quarterback: Jalen Hurts
DraftKings – $8,300; 7.8% Boom | FanDuel – $8,800; 12.5% Boom
Once again Jalen Hurts and the Eagles appear to be one of the better teams to focus on with NFL DFS stacks for Week 12’s anticipated battle with Josh Allen and the Bills. We know A.J. Brown is likely to get his as usual, and DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift should be heavily involved too, particularly since Dallas Goedert is out injured.
Hurts is actually coming off his worst statistical performance in Week 11’s narrow 21-17 win over a highly-regarded Chiefs defense. He failed to throw a touchdown pass and had a pick yet still finished with 19.9 DraftKings points thanks to two rushing touchdowns.
The matchup is friendlier at home against Buffalo in what should be a back-and-forth game and one that will be a popular target for DFS stacking in Week 12. Even at his expensive salaries, Hurts has the highest boom probability of any quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with the Eagles implied for a slate-leading 26 points.
Running Back: Isiah Pacheco
DraftKings – $6,200; 18.6% Boom | FanDuel – $6,600; 18.6% Boom
The NFL DFS boom probability ratings at running back show Isiah Pacheco and Jonathan Taylor in the top two spots for Week 12. Both backs should be popular, and that’s confirmed when checking out Stokastic’s ownership projections — Pacheco’s at a 20.3% ownership projection on DraftKings, while Taylor’s is even higher at 30.6% projected ownership.
Fellow RB Jerick McKinnon is out for Week 12, which could mean even more opportunities for the second-year pro. At time of writing, Pacheco has an 18.6% boom probability on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s populating in 23.3% of optimal lineups on DK and 31.8% of optimal lineups on FD for a favorable matchup on the road against Las Vegas.
OddsShopper’s player prop pages have Pacheco’s rushing yards prop at 68.5 yards and his receiving yards prop at 20.5. The Chiefs’ RB is at +100 to score a touchdown at any point in the game. Travis Kelce is the only player in this game with better odds to find the end zone.
Wide Receiver: Cooper Kupp
DraftKings – $8,000; 12.2% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 13.1% Boom
We should note Michael Pittman Jr. (15.6% boom mark on DraftKings) and A.J. Brown (12.4%) are popping too, but Week 12 boom probability ratings are also backing Cooper Kupp (12.2% boom) to find his stride again on the road against the Cardinals. It’s been a tough stretch for Kupp, who hasn’t scored a touchdown and reached 50 yards receiving since this season’s first meeting with Arizona.
Nonetheless, Matthew Stafford and company are ranking out as one of the best teams to stack in DFS this week, and projections are liking the chances of Kupp breaking out for a signature ceiling performance. We’ve seen the kind of upside he can bring to daily fantasy football lineups, and it wouldn’t be surprising in the least to see a vintage Kupp showing here.
Ahead of Sunday afternoon, Kupp carries a 15.6% optimal lineup rate on DraftKings and that number jumps to 22.4% on FanDuel. As a reminder, this optimal lineup metric is based on Stokastic’s NFL DFS simulations, which factor in competitors’ lineups and range of outcomes.
Tight End: Evan Engram
DraftKings – $4,200; 18.0% Boom | FanDuel – $5,800; 12.5% Boom
The likes of Travis Kelce and Trey McBride are projecting nicely also, as they’re right at the top of the tight end pool in boom probability. We wanted to highlight Evan Engram as well though, as he’s currently at an 18.0% boom probability at $4,200 on DraftKings and a 12.5% boom probability at $5,800 on FanDuel for a Week 12 game against the Texans.
Engram’s optimal lineup rate is currently 17.5% on DraftKings and 15.9% on FanDuel, and he’s expected to carry reasonably high ownership on both sites at his approachable DFS salaries.
Though he has failed to reach the end zone this season, Engram is still being utilized heavily in the Jaguars offense. Will this be the week he reaches pay dirt and pays off his salaries on the road in Houston?
NFL DFS Picks – Week 12 Lower-Upside Situation
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for NFL DFS. Each week we will take a look at a seemingly less exciting game to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Patriots/Giants
This game has the lowest total on the board at a lowly 34 points, with the 2-8 Patriots favored by four points on the road over the 3-8 Giants.
There is still some uncertainty surrounding who will start at quarterback for New England. Mac Jones is still expected to start for the time being and included in Stokastic’s projections data and other tools as of early Sunday morning.
Here are the top five in boom/bust probability data within this ugly-looking matchup:
Patriots D/ST (13.7%)
Rhamondre Stevenson (12.2%)
Saquon Barkley (9.3%)
Demario Douglas (8.3%)
Hunter Henry (3.8%)
The five highest DraftKings bust probabilities belong to Matt Breida, Sterling Shepard, Ezekiel Elliott, Tommy DeVito and Mac Jones.
On FanDuel, the highest boom probability numbers show:
Patriots D/ST (13.1%)
Rhamondre Stevenson (8.6%)
Saquon Barkley (6.5%)
Giants D/ST (4.7%)
Demario Douglas (2.5%)
The five highest FanDuel bust probabilities belong to Matt Breida, Isaiah Hodgins, Juju Smith–Schuster, Tommy DeVito and Jalin Hyatt.
We recommend going through the entirety of the boom and bust data across all positions as you finalize your lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. Projections will continue to be updated all the way until lock, so make sure to check back to Stokastic’s tools for the most up-to-date numbers.
Remember that are one piece of the puzzle and other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing NFL DFS lineups.
Best of luck in all of your contests in Week 12!
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