When building lineups for NFL DFS Week 7, understanding good chalk plays and bad chalk plays can make or break your results. Chalk refers to the most popular players on the slate — but not all chalk is equal. Using Sims data from the top 150 ROI lineups for large-field GPPs, here’s which of the top 10 NFL DFS chalk picks deserve to be in your lineup, and which ones might sink it.
NFL DFS Week 7 Chalk Plays: Good Chalk vs. Bad Chalk
Full disclosure, across the board most NFL DFS chalk plays for Week 7 carry positive leverage and appear frequently in top-ROI lineups. So in essence, chalk plays are fair game in GPPs this week. That said, we’ll parse out the good chalk vs. bad chalk as best we can.
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Rashee Rice — Projected Ownership: 40.2%
Rice is a top example of good chalk this week. Appearing in over 60% of top ROI lineups, he offers nearly 20% positive leverage at 40% ownership. His $5,600 salary and 17.6-point projection make him an efficient mid-tier value in his first game back, and you know Patrick Mahomes is going to look his way in the red zone a ton.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Breece Hall — Projected Ownership: 34.8%
Hall is elite Week 7 NFL DFS chalk. With 68% exposure in top Sims lineups and 33% leverage, he’s one of the strongest plays on the slate. Garrett Wilson’s injury and every-down workload make him worth eating chalk.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Javonte Williams — Projected Ownership: 31.8%
Williams carries 40% exposure in top lineups, slightly above his 32% ownership. He’s closest of the good chalk plays to being on the bubble, but his 19.1-point projection and goal-line usage make him worth it. While not elite leverage, he is a safe GPP piece with a real ceiling.
Verdict: Good Chalk
CeeDee Lamb — Projected Ownership: 30.5%
Lamb is a tough call, but we’ll go with bad chalk for Week 7. Despite a 20.1-point projection, he simulated for negative ROI (-11.5%) and minimal 5% leverage. At $7,500 and 30% ownership, the field is overpaying for name value in a situation where he may ease back in following injury. That said, his Sims exposure (36%) shows he has a reasonable floor.
Verdict: Bad Chalk
Trey McBride — Projected Ownership: 27.9%
McBride’s usage makes him one of the best NFL DFS chalk plays on the slate. With 53% exposure in top ROI lineups and 25% leverage, he’s clear good chalk. At $5,700 and 16.7-point projection, his volume and red zone involvement make him safe and correlated to high-scoring lineups.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Quinshon Judkins — Projected Ownership: 25.2%
Judkins appears in more than 40% of top Sims lineups, with positive ROI and healthy leverage. His consistent workload and touchdown potential make him a valuable mid-range piece of chalk in an offense that is struggling through the air.
Verdict: Good Chalk
D’Andre Swift — Projected Ownership: 20.6%
Swift is coming off arguably his best game as a Bear, and his Sim ROI and exposure advantage show slight but meaningful leverage. His 15-plus point projection and all-purpose role make him efficient NFL DFS chalk. Even as ownership rises, Swift’s consistent usage keeps him in the profitable chalk tier.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Chris Olave — Projected Ownership: 19.8%
Olave’s top-150 exposure and 14.2% positive leverage indicate that the Sims back his ownership. With an 18-point projection and strong correlation in Saints stacks (stacks that have been surprisingly competent), Olave’s popularity is worth it.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Jaylen Waddle — Projected Ownership: 19.5%
Waddle’s inclusion in over 31% of top-150 lineups validates him as strong NFL DFS chalk. His 12% leverage and connection to Tua Tagovailoa sans Tyreek Hill give him an easy path to ceiling outcomes. He’s an excellent fit for both single-entry and large-field builds.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Tyler Warren — Projected Ownership: 19.5%
Among tight ends, Warren’s 28.7% exposure is elite. His salary is creeping up, but he has red zone reliability and a great rapport with Daniel Jones, making him a key Week 7 NFL DFS chalk play with real upside.
Verdict: Good Chalk
Final Word: Good Chalk vs. Bad Chalk Picks for NFL DFS Week 7
