NFL Friday Night Football DFS Picks: Chiefs vs. Chargers (Sept. 5)

The NFL is back in Brazil for Friday Night Football and the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Chiefs-Chargers Week 1 Friday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Arena Corinthians in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

NFL Friday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Chiefs-Chargers

Technically, the Chargers are the “home” team tonight, though keep in mind this game is in Brazil. Last year there were some challenges with the turf since 22 NFL players on a field typically designed for futbol is a dramatic difference. Here is an article that details the adjustments made for this year. Per the article, the hybrid GrassMaster turf is also what is used in Lambeau Field and Lincoln Financial Field, which, of course, are the venues for the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles, who played in this event last year.

This offseason, the NFL partnered with local experts to revamp the turf, which had not had a full overhaul since opening in 2014. We saw players try various cleats throughout the game last year to improve their footing, so ideally there will be less of that tonight.

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NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1: Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is still the all-time per-game leader, though his 288.9 average went south quickly with seasons of 261.4 and 245.5 yards per game. That is not a concern for the Chiefs since the team was 10-6 in the 2023 regular season before winning its second consecutive Super Bowl. Last year the team was 15-1 with Maholmes under center, ultimately losing to the Philadelphia Eagles and missing out on a third straight Lombardi Trophy.

Coach Andy Reid has indicated the Chiefs want to get back to their electric passing ways, so it will be interesting to see how that actually transpires throughout the season. Tonight could be tricky with the Los Angeles Chargers being a solid defense, even after losing Joey Bosa (Buffalo), plus veteran defensive backs Asante Samuel Jr. (unsigned free agent and convalescing from a neck injury) and Eli Apple (San Francisco practice squad).

Jesse Minter remains the defensive coordinator who will provide continuity for a team that allowed the fewest points in the league last year with 17.7 per game. Los Angeles also loves to run under head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Indirectly, that could impact Mahomes if the Chargers are able to control the clock, it will help keep the defense fresher for trying to contain the Kanas City aerial circus.

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Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview

Running Back | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

The backfield looks like a two-man show with Isiah Pacheco the lead back and veteran Kareem Hunt more of a situational player. We saw last year when Pacheco was hurt that Hunt is pretty much a plodder at this point of his career, though he is still able to get what is blocked in front of him. He is better in pass protection than Pacheco, which should make this a rotation influenced by game situations.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Pacheco as the primary rusher with 13.13 carries for 56.57 yards, and 1.71 targets for 1.62 receptions and another 10.5 yards and a 40% likelihood of finding pay dirt. Hunt checks in with 5.32 totes for 22.85 yards and around an 80% chance for one target.

There is a $4,000 discount for Hunt on DraftKings, with one-third of the popularity keeping him in the mix for those crafting half a dozen or more lineups. On the blue site, he is $3,200 cheaper and a clear differentiation play with one-quarter of the tournament representation when compared to Pacheco. The half-PPR format narrows the fantasy point gap on FanDuel, which makes Hunt an excellent differentiation play in the hopes that Pacheco stalls out or the Chargers have the Chiefs back on their heels in catch-up mode.

Elijah Mitchell is likely the RB3, though it would not be a complete surprise if he were inactive tonight with everyone at full health. Rookie Brashard Smith may potentially share kick return duties with Nikko Remigio, so he too could be inactive in favor of Mitchell. There are probably three backfield touches up for grabs outside of Pacheco and Hunt, so even if only one of Mitchell or Smith is active, it will be an uphill climb to find DFS relevance.

Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Second-year wideout Xavier Worthy should also get a carry or two, which also makes the RB3 for Kansas City less appealing. Worthy proved to be a dynamic player, which was facilitated by his blazing speed. He also earned the trust of Mahomes and Reid over the latter portion of the season, and that was key as Rashee Rice was lost in Week 4 to an injury.

Rice is, of course, suspended for the first six games, and fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals is out with a knee injury. That means extra defensive attention can go to Worthy, plus it opens things up for oft-injured Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.

Things really thin out with journeyman JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton rounding out the room. Obviously, none of these players is Mahomes’ favorite target, though all are live for a DFS moment with the future Hall of Famer under center.

Tight End | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Podcaster Travis Kelce has had an illustrious NFL career, posting several seasons that most wide receivers would love to have. The soon-to-be hitched tight end is that in name only, rarely lining up in line and working more out of the slot or as a split end. He did a nice job blocking last year, which was key since his downfield production and yards after the catch are a thing of the past.

Last year the goal was to take it easy with the now 36-year-old, though circumstances did not allow that to happen. He ended up playing in 16 games, and his 133 targets were in line with his average across his 10 consecutive Pro Bowl campaigns. It would be a surprise if Kelce were to extend this streak to 11, but he should double up on his paltry, career-low three touchdowns.

Noah Gray is the “true” tight end, but he also is the heir apparent for Kansas City, having been rewarded with a three-year, $18 million deal last year. There is a potential opt-out next season, though Gray will have already cleared close to $11 million by then. Gray was fourth on the team with 45 targets, adding five touchdowns, including two tuddies in Weeks 11 and 12.

Jared Wiley is the TE3, but it would be a surprise for him to actually get a target tonight unless something befalls one of the starters in game.

Kicker | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Harrison Butker continues to be a solid kicker, though he had just 25 attempts last year, the second fewest of his eight seasons in the league. He also missed three of his five attempts from 50-plus yards; however, he was perfect on all five in 2023. Most of his games are outdoors, so that needs to be considered as well. Butker got the bag from K.C., and he is in Year 3 of a four-year, $25.6 million deal. On a fun note, he also holds the Super Bowl record for the longest field goal conversion at 57 yards.

Defense | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Kansas City had excellent defensive results over the last two seasons, which helped when the offense was not playing up to lofty expectations. Chris Jones, of course, is the anchor, though there is some shuffling on the defensive line with Derrick Nnadi and Tershawn Wharton leaving in free agency and a revamped backfield with the signing of former Charger Kristian Fulton and third-round draftee Nohl Williams joining Trent McDuffie.

Los Angeles was in the middle of the pack, allowing 2.6 sacks per game, though the Chargers allowed just nine turnovers, which trailed only the eight by the Buffalo Bills. Despite ceding the fourth-fewest points per game (19.2), Kansas City had just over one turnover per tilt.

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NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1: Justin Herbert

Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that most books have Herbert in the -115 range to clear 235 passing yards. That is just above his 227.6 average from last year, which similar to Mahomes, was a dramatic drop from his 267.0 per game average for his career and continued the trend from his 241.1 yards per game in 2023.

Herbert did have a career-high 69 carries and 306 yards, though he was pretty selective, getting just two touchdowns on the ground. His 23 passing touchdowns were in line with his three-year average, but he was 12th overall in that category and well behind the 35-plus aerial scores of the five most prolific passers.

Like his counterpart tonight, he is mobile in the pocket. However, the lack of consistent running production keeps both better off as flex plays than in the multiplier slots.

Los Angeles Chargers Positional Preview

Running Back | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Gone are JK Dobbins (Denver) and Gus Edwards (Baltimore), leaving Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal as the holdovers. Najee Harris was given a one-year, $5.25 million deal this offseason, though he did not see much action in the preseason after a fireworks mishap resulted in a “superficial eye injury.” He is expected to play tonight, though the loss of practice time for his new team could put some of his nearly $4 million in performance incentives at risk if rookie Omarion Hampton is able to perform well.

Hampton was less than spectacular in the preseason, though he was the 22nd overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft out of UNC. Hampton led the ACC in rushing during both his sophomore and junior years. His two-year production was impressive with just over 150 combined yards per game and 33 touchdowns in 25 appearances.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Hampton for two-thirds of the carries and half of the targets that are earmarked for the backfield. That works out to about a dozen DraftKings points in the full-PPR format and just over 10 on FanDuel. That is in the scrum just outside the top 5 median fantasy point expectations for the full player pool.

Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Ladd McConkey was sublime in his rookie season, staring 14 of 16 games and seeing 112 targets for 82 receptions, 1,149 yards and seven scores. Of course, that was with Keenan Allen in Chicago and Mike Williams with both the Steelers and the Jets.

Both long-time Chargers were brought back this year, though Williams announced his retirement and Allen is now in his age-33 season. That said, he is still the most prolific wideout in team history and second behind tight end Antonio Gates for total receptions and yards, despite playing about 100 fewer games.

It will be interesting to see how the dust settles for the coveted slot role, with McConkey getting nearly 65% of his plays from that position, while Allen was in the top 20 for all slot snaps. Expectations are that both will move around and this will be the duo in two-receiver sets.

Los Angeles also drafted Tre Harris in the second round after his two solid seasons at Ole Miss, where he transferred following three years with Louisiana Tech. Keandre Lambert-Smith went in the fifth round after a five-year college career, his first four at Penn State and a swan song with Auburn. Expectations are that one of these players will be the X-receiver, though neither was able to sustain any consistency in the preseason.

It may not happen tonight, but Quentin Johnston could be pushed out of that role and used more as a flanker to take advantage of his size in the middle of the field since the 21st overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft has been mediocre at best working on the outside. Salary will definitely come into play, with Allen getting a 45% discount on FanDuel and a hefty 65% savings on DraftKings.

Tight End | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Will Dissly now has to share the TE1 role with Tyler Conklin, and this duo has overlapping skillsets. Each is a capable receiver and a solid blocker, so they will dominate the snaps for this position with rookie Oronde Gadsden II likely lost in the shuffle for now.

Kicker | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

Cameron Dicker has definitely lived up to his “Dicker the Kicker” nickname over the last two seasons, converting on 20 of 23 (86.9%) from 40 to 49 yards and 16 of 20 (80.0%) from 50-plus yards. Overall he has a 93.8% success rate on field goal attempts for his career, and for the first time ever he missed an extra point last season (he missed three in total to go 92-for-95, 96.8%). Consider that an aberration as he did succeed on all 21 PATs from Week 9 forward.

Defense | Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1

The Kansas City offensive line was a mess last year, leading to a career-worst 36 sacks for Mahomes. There has been an effort made to improve things across the board, and considering that long-time disruptor Joey Bosa is no longer with the team, it is hard to be overly excited for the Chargers defense. Expectations are that Mahomes will slide back closer to his 4.23 career sack rate instead of his abysmal 5.83% from last year.

NFL DFS Picks for Chiefs-Chargers NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Football Week 1: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Chargers

1. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite! He led his team to the Super Bowl in five of the last six seasons, winning three. Considering the questions everywhere else, just go with the known commodity.
2. Justin Herbert: Trite as it is, looking to both quarterbacks makes sense, though each is better outside of the multiplier slot given the lack of rushing touchdowns.
3. Ladd McConkey: Even with all of the changes, he is the alpha option.
4. Xavier Worthy: Benefits from the absence of Rice, but there is a good chance he will move ahead to be the WR1 for the season with a six-game head start to build on his late-season surge as a rookie.
5. Hollywood Brown: The price is right, and the opportunities should be there; enjoy while he is healthy.
6. Cameron Dicker: Excellent fantasy point-per-dollar ratio, and we need the savings from a projectable player.
7. Isiah Pacheco: In 2024, he averaged 3.5 targets per game across 14 matchups. Now is fully recovered from his broken leg and getting the first crack as the primary back.
8. Keenan Allen: Veteran savvy, familiarity with Herbert and a friendly salary. Enjoy!
9. Travis Kelce: Father Time is undefeated.
10. Omarion Hampton: Most appealing on FanDuel, where he has the best fantasy point-per-dollar ratio among all starters. For DraftKings, he is not even in the top 10 among the “regulars” since it is hard to know how much he will see of a limited set of passing targets going to the backfield.

Secondary Options

1. Noah Gray: There is an argument that he is a better option than Kelce on both sites for the salary savings. It would not be a shock to see Kelce falling out of the upper section for future Kansas City island games.
2. Brashard Smith: He needs to be active, and then his minimum $200 salary on DraftKings could easily land him in top lineups if he can get a catch and two carries.
3. Kareem Hunt: Should see 25% to 35% of the running back opportunities and has the edge on passing downs, but not so much on rushing plays to the end zone.
4. Harrison Butker: Definitely a core play on both sites, just not quite as flashy.
5. Quentin Johnston: Slight edge over the rookie competition until proven otherwise.

Lottery Tickets

1. Najee Harris: Salaries of $8,000 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings are hard to click, considering his lack of reps. The upside case is that he has a veteran presence, is reasonably effective and Hampton struggles early. It feels like limiting lineups to one Los Angeles running back is a savvy move for at least the first 25 lineups.
2. Los Angeles DST: Can they overcome the new Kansas City offensive line without Bosa leading the charge?
3. Kansas City DST: Herbert is almost as savvy as Mahomes when it comes to evading the rush and avoiding turnovers. If this game were in Arrowhead Stadium, K.C. would move to the top of this section.
4. Tyler Conklin and Will Dissly: The epitome of the Spiderman pointing meme. Another situation where playing just one makes more sense in the hopes the other struggles.
5. Juju Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton: Yikes!
6. Tre’ Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith: Ibid.
7. Nikko Remigio: Could Reid have some gadget play up his sleeve after a full offseason?
8. Elijah Mitchell: Ignore if Smith is active.
9. Hassan Haskins, Derius Davis, Jalen Reagor, Oronde Gadsden II, Tucker Fisk and Jared Wiley: Half of these players will be inactive, the others are left for those crafting 50-plus lineups.