Kansas City is riding with a 4-3 record that ranks eighth in the AFC while finally having a full complement of wideouts and having been installed as double-digit home favorites tonight. Washington is struggling at 3-4, getting crushed by injuries, losing their starting running back and having the top two pass-catchers dealing with various maladies, plus tonight will be the third time Jayden Daniels missed a start. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Commanders-Chiefs Week 9 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
NFL Monday Night Football Week 8 DFS Picks: Commanders-Chiefs
NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 8: Marcus Mariota
Marcus Mariota
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $12,400
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.78
FanDuel: 16.61
Tonight will be the third start of the season for backup Marcus Mariota, who is holding things together with a 1-1 record. He played around one-third of the game last week after Jayden Daniels suffered a strained hamstring.
This is the 11th season in the league for Mariota, who was the second overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft. After five years with Tennessee, he was a backup with Las Vegas for two seasons, a starter in 2022 for Atlanta and a backup with Philadelphia in 2023 before landing on the Commanders in 2023. He was the Heisman Trophy winner in his junior year at the University of Oregon prior to declaring for the NFL Draft.
In six appearances for the Commanders, four in relief, Mariota averaged 31 rushing yards per game. He also averaged 33.7 in his 13 starts for the Falcons in 2022, so that upside is available. Now a savvy 32-year-old, Mariota is not going to force anything on the ground, but if the defense is not paying attention, he will grab the easy yards as they are presented.
Across his two starts this season, he tallied 207 passing yards and a touchdown in Week 3 against Las Vegas, and in Week 4 he had 156 passing yards with two scores. Kansas City is phenomenal on defense, allowing only two quarterbacks to clear 160 passing yards during the last six games (Trevor Lawrence 221 and Jared Goff 203), ceding a scant four scores through the air. Lawrence did rush for two touchdowns in primetime, and Jalen Hurts had one as well back in Week 2.
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Washington Commanders Positional Preview
Running Back | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Washington is forced to employ a full committee approach after trading Brian Robinson Jr. to San Francisco at the end of training camp and losing Austin Ekeler (Achilles) for the season in Week 2. Rookie Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt is proving to be a reasonable two-down back with flashes of upside and, of course, plenty of young player mistakes. Week 5 was his only game (66%) playing more than half of the offensive snaps, and he has just 10 targets, catching seven for 60 yards. The 24-year-old had multiple college stops with little involvement in the passing game for any team.
The 24-year-old has a solid 5.2 yards per carry, topping 60 rushing yards in three of his seven games, including two of his three starts. He also has four rushing scores, which is solid.
Veteran Jeremy McNichols has been in the league since 2017, playing for five franchises, including San Francisco twice. This is his second year with Washington, and he is a steadying presence in the backfield. Though he has only 11 targets, seven came in the last two games. He also turned his 15 carries into 139 yards and a score. Expect him to be on the field around one-third of the time as a baseline, with a good chance of seeing action on half the snaps if the game flow follows the current -700 moneyline odds favoring Kansas City.
Chris Rodriguez is likely to be in the mix for 10 to 12 offensive snaps, with a chance for a couple of carries. There is no expectation of passing-game work, as he is yet to see a target, though he did score his first touchdown of the season against Dallas last week.
Wide Receiver | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Terry McLaurin suffered a quad injury in Week 3, but indications are that he will return to action tonight. Long-time 49er Deebo Samuel (heel) missed last week, though he too is expected to be active tonight. This will be a boost for Mariota; however, the tough matchup has things seemingly bleak.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, McLaurin is -135 for over 3.5 receptions, -115 for more than 48.5 receiving yards and +300 for a touchdown. Samuel is +105 for more than 4.5 catches, -110 for over 49.5 receiving yards and +255 to tally a tuddy. There is also a decent chance that Samuel will line up in the backfield, as he has eight carries for 45 yards and a score this season.
Noah Brown is on the injured reserve, though he is getting close to a return. If it is tonight, that clouds expectations for the other receivers and it will be interesting to see who is active. Rookie Jaylin Lane and second-year man Luke McCaffrey also play special teams, so they should be in the mix, and with veteran Chris Moore proving his worth over the last two games, he is likely to be the fifth wideout unless Brown is active. For those who missed it — which is actually most of us — Robbie Chosen saw his first action of the season, earning four targets on 33 snaps. It would be a surprise if he is relevant again this season.
There are a lot of moving parts in the passing game to parse out, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Tight End | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Zach Ertz was resurgent last year, providing a safety valve for his rookie quarterback, and his seven touchdowns were the second most of his career. Sadly, he looks pretty spent this year, and while there is no shame in that, he does turn 36 next month. He is still the TE1, though the addition of Samuel takes away some of his short-range opportunities.
Ertz has 13 targets over the last two games, and his 34 on the season dominate the 38 to the position overall. John Bates will be on the field for around half the snaps, and he saw two of his three targets for the season last week. Ben Sinnott is likely to be involved for one-third of the offensive action, though his lone target was back in Week 2.
Kicker | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Field goals are fickle, but veteran Matt Gay is struggling at 10-for-14, marking a career-low 71.4% conversion rate. He missed three of his seven from 50-plus yards, though there is a silver lining as he is 7-for-8 (88%) across his four most recent outings and he is perfect on 18 extra-point attempts.
Defense | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Kansas City allowed 11 sacks in seven games, while Washington collected a solid 18 in seven tilts. The Chiefs have just two turnovers, both interceptions, with the Commanders managing only a trio of takeaways. That is ahead of only the dismal New York Jets defense, which has one lonely fumble recovery, back in Week 6.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 8: Patrick Mahomes II
Patrick Mahomes II
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $13,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 25.44
FanDuel: 25.26
Patrick Mahomes II has been stellar this season, and he has all of his skill players available for just the second time this season. In the early going, we saw his contributions to the running game be paramount, and while that may be dialed back a little going forward, the threat will always be present and now there are more playmakers for defenses to cover.
Across the last four games, Mahomes averaged 282.8 passing yards and threw a whopping 11 total touchdowns against one interception while suffering only five sacks. His 35.7 rushing yards per game are a personal best and well above his 20.9 career average. There is not much else to add about the greatest quarterback of all time.
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Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview
Running Back | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
The Kansas City running back carousel continues to be in flux. Isiah Pacheco is technically the “lead” back, though journeyman Kareem Hunt continues to erode Pacheco’s workload, and rookie Brashard Smith is coming on strong in the passing game while also getting a career-high 14 carries for 39 yards and a 35% snap share in last week’s 31-0 drubbing of the Raiders.
The Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Pacheco for 14.2 totes for 59.5 yards, with Hunt seeing 5.4 for 22.6 yards, Mahomes getting 5.1 carries for 30.9 yards and Smith approaching three chances for a dozen yards. If the game is lopsided, less will go to Mahomes and more to Smith. Pacheco and Hunt project for 2.6 combined targets, while Smith has 2.7 himself. Keep in mind these are all median outcomes since it does obfuscate the 16 targets for Smith over the last four games.
Wide Receivers | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Having both Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy together makes for a dynamic pairing. Worthy had the fastest 40-yard dash in combine history, and Rice is no slouch himself. Unfortunately, Worthy went down early in the opener after colliding with Travis Kelce and injuring his shoulder. He did not return to action until Week 4, and it was clear he was limited with his range of motion the first couple of games. Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 last year, so that combined with his suspension had him sidelined until Sunday.
Rice was on the field for 33 (41%) snaps in the blowout, getting a team-high 10 targets. For perspective, aside from Marquise “Hollywood” Brown getting 16 targets during Week 1 in Brazil as the last man standing, no other Chief had double-digit looks in a single game. Kansas City is not in the “embarrassment of riches” stage for this position, though Brown, Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster cycling through as the WR3 is definitely a more of a luxury than when that trio was forced to carry the load.
On DraftKings, Thornton ($2,800) and Smith-Schuster ($2.600) are decent discount dandies, with Thornton getting that nod on FanDuel ($3,000). He is unlikely to get volume, but if he can corral a long pass from Mahomes before the game is out of hand, he will have his supporters smiling.
Tight End | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Kelce will benefit from additional playmakers taking attention away from himself, and any dip in opportunity volume is likely to be offset by improved efficiency. He just celebrated his 36th birthday, and while he is no longer a downfield threat, he still has an excellent catch radius.
Noah Gray is a fine discount dandy on DraftKings ($2,000) and FanDuel ($1,800), even if he only gets a target or two. It would not be a surprise to see him start out-snapping Kelce, with the team finally in a position to take some of the burden away from their aging superstar. Gray is already on the field for nearly 60% of the action, and he may pick up more of Kelce’s receiving responsibilities in low-leverage situations. Tonight it is important to note that rookie tackle Josh Simmons remains away from the team due to a personal matter and guard Trey Smith did not practice at all with a back injury. That is likely to lead to more time on the field as a block, which, of course, means chances for a checkdown or an outlet look from Mahomes.
Kicker | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
Harrison Butker continues chugging along this season, converting on 12 of 15 (80%) of his field goal attempts with two of his misses coming from 50-plus yards. He has five attempts from that range this season, which is an uptick given he had just five attempts in each of the two preceding campaigns. He already missed a trio of extra points, despite missing just three of 69 (96% success rate) over the last two years.
Defense | Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8
While the Chiefs are averaging only two sacks per game, playing in Arrowhead Stadium is definitely one of the best homefield advantages in the league. This will be the third consecutive game in Kansas City, with the team allowing only 17 points to Detroit in Week 6 and shutting out Las Vegas last week. Mariota was sacked five times in his three starts, throwing a pair of picks and losing one fumble.
NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 8: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Commanders-Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes II: Mahomies Unite!
- Rashee Rice: It is great to have him back.
- Xavier Worthy: Still waiting for a signature performance; may not happen tonight, but it will at some point this season.
- Marcus Mariota: Let’s hear it for the Olds!
- Deebo Samuel: Still has the heel issue, though word is he was close to playing last week as it is a pain management situation. Also returns kickoffs, though McCaffrey has the lead job on lockdown.
- Harrison Butker: Projectable salary savings.
- Brashard Smith: DraftKings ranking with the full-PPR scoring; drops to the top of the next section on FanDuel, where a touchdown or mop-up duty will help unlock his potential. Also returns kickoffs.
- Matt Gay: Distinctly below Butker but still viable if Washington is not able to perform in the red zone.
- Terry McLaurin: Could be rusty and may not be at full strength; in an already difficult matchup.
- Isiah Pacheco: Needs touchdowns; could see 15-plus carries in a methodical victory.
Secondary Options
- Travis Kelce: Maybe we get one last hurrah for National Tight End Day.
- Jacory Croskey-Merrit: To Bill or not to Bill?
- Jeremy McNichols: Borderline core play on DraftKings ($3,400), with the assumption that Kansas City gets a double-digit lead in the first quarter.
- Kansas City DST: Has not racked up the fantasy goodness with sacks and turnovers; a monster game is lurking.
- Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: Likely settles in as the WR3, though no guarantees.
Lottery Tickets
- Zach Ertz: Similar to Kelce, though Ertz’s upside is harder to access.
- Kareem Hunt: All it takes is an injury or miscue with one of the other backs and he returns to relevance.
- Washington DST: Mahomes and coach Andy Reid limit sacks and turnovers.
- Tyquan Thornton: Longshot upside; good for those playing a dozen or more lineups.
- Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane: McCaffrey is the lead kickoff returner (24 attempts, 29.7-yard average), while Lane holds down the punt return role and already has a touchdown.
- Noah Gray: Plenty of similarly priced alternatives from both teams.
- Chris Moore: Could be inactive if both Samuel and McLaurin do suit up.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: It will be interesting to see how his role revolves; expecting some third-down or red zone work, though it will likely be scant and unpredictable.
- Nikko Remigio: Lead punt returner; shares kickoff duties with Smith.
- John Bates, Ben Sinnott and Robert Tonyan: Even National Tight End Day couldn’t save this motley crew.
