NFL Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Giants at Patriots (Week 13)

Denver (10-2) has reeled in New England (10-2) after the Broncos won in overtime on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots are favored by a touchdown in Foxborough tonight, with the New York Giants looking to end a six-game losing streak. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Giants-Patriots Week 13 MNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action.

NFL Monday Night Football Week 13 DFS Picks: Giants-Patriots

NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 13: Jaxson Dart

While Dart threw for a pedestrian 10 touchdowns in his seven starts, he added seven rushing touchdowns. He is averaging 7.9 carries for 45.3 yards, which gives him a solid fantasy floor. Dart’s passing production is all over the place, though despite averaging 30.7 attempts excluding his first start (111 passing yards), he cleared 202 yards only twice. The 22-year-old is just below league average with 6.9 yards per attempt and a 62.7% completion rate, with his 4.9% touchdown rate a tick above the baseline.

It is important to remember that Malik Nabers was lost for the season in Week 4, coinciding with the Dart’s first start, creating a huge talent deficit for the New York pass catchers.

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New York Giants Positional Preview

Running Back | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

It has been a month since rookie Cam Skattebo was lost for the season. Tyrone Tracy Jr. resumed the lead back role with an approximate 60%/40% snap-share advantage over veteran Devin Singletary. In the four games without Skattebo, Tracy has 14 targets, which are double the six for Singletary. The rushing opportunities were closer over the last two games, though Tracy has an above average 39 carries for 150 yards, with Singletary seeing a solid 30 for 91 yards and two touchdowns.

Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Harvey for 12.8 carries and 50.2 yards, plus 3.9 targets for 3.1 receptions and 23.1 yards, along with a 40% probability of scoring a touchdown. Singletary is earmarked for 8.4 carries for 34.1 yards and 1.5 targets for 1.3 receptions for just over 9 yards, accompanied by a 25% likelihood of scoring. Considering that Dart has been so effective in the red zone, he is the most likely to get goal line efforts.

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Pass Catchers | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

Wan’Dale Robinson saw some serious volume over the last six games, with 11 or more targets in four of the tilts and 61 in total. This stretch alone is enough to lead the team, as tight end Theo Johnson has 60 targets for the entire season. Darius Slayton missed three games with injuries, but he is clearly the WR2, though behind Johnson.

Isaiah Hodgins played the last two games, getting six targets in each appearance. He ranked second among the wideouts, with a 79% snap share in Week 11 when Slayton was out and 66% last week when Slayton returned. Jalin Hyatt is an afterthought and may not be active, but returner extraordinaire and special teams ace Gunner Olszewski will be active, and he saw offensive snaps in three of the last four games.

Johnson is likely to be on the field for 80% of the offensive action, and he had four or more targets in each of the last nine games. Daniel Bellinger is mostly a blocker, though he had five targets in the last three games and 17 on the season. Chris Manhertz works in for around a dozen snaps per game, but he has only two targets this year, with the most recent one all the way back in Week 3.

Kicker | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

Atlanta benched Younghoe Koo after he missed a game-tying field goal from 43 yards out in the season opener. He was released after Week 3, ending his six-plus seasons with the Falcons. Koo was otherwise solid, aside from last year, when he had only a 73.5% success rate, well below his 89.9% conversion rate from his first five seasons in Atlanta. That included 2020 Pro Bowl honors.

The Giants picked up Koo for their practice squad in late September, activating him in Week 10, when Graham Gano was injured. In his three games for New York, he is 4-for-4 on field goals and 7-for-8 on PATs.

Defense | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

The Giants are around league average with just over two sacks per game. New England has had nonstop offensive line injuries this season, and the team has suffered 37 sacks for just over three per game, which are the sixth most in the league. New York has the third-fewest takeaways with just seven on the year, while the Patriots are ceding one per tilt.

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NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 13: Drake Maye

Despite being third in the league with 260.8 passing yards per game, Maye is yet to crack the 300-yard plateau. To be fair, he does have four games with 280-plus yards and just three below 259 passing yards. His 25.6 rushing yards per appearance trail only Dart (35.2), Josh Allen (34.1) and Jalen Hurts (27.4). Additionally, he is fifth with 21 passing touchdowns, which are 6 more than he had in his 12 starts last year. The OddsShopper Live Odds have the former UNC stalwart at -112 for over 245.5 passing yards, +100 for more than 24.5 rushing yards and -165 for more than 1.5 passing scores.

After earning Pro Bowl accolades as a rookie, it is crazy to see how much Maye leveled up — not only statistically, but also with the Patriots on a nine-game winning streak.

New England Patriots Positional Preview

Running Back | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

Rhamondre Stevenson returned from a three-game absence, during which it appears he lost lead-back status to rookie TreVeyon Henderson. The veteran was on the field for 31% of the offensive action, collecting only 5 yards on six rushing attempts and catching one of his two targets for another 5 yards. This was disappointing considering the cherry matchup in Cincinnati against the woeful Bengals. Henderson had 18 totes for 66 yards, catching three of four targets for an additional 15 yards.

Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Henderson for 15.5 carries and three targets tonight, while Stevenson is looking at just under seven carries and 1.7 targets. Stevenson has a $3,000 discount from Henderson on DraftKings, with $4,600 in savings on the blue site. Henderson clearly moved ahead of his counterpart, though both can be played in the same lineup as a plan to capture all of the running back touches in the hopes of a lopsided victory. Terrell Jennings is an afterthought, having played only three snaps last week.

Wide Receiver | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

Stefon Diggs topped a 60% snap share only twice this season, as the team is content to work him back from his knee injury slowly and make sure he is ready for a deep postseason run. He leads the team with 75 targets, including five or more in four of the last six games. He tends to be on the sidelines in obvious running situations and when the game is in hand.

In a surprise, NFL nomad Mack Hollins is second among wideouts with 44 targets, though that is a function of injuries to Kayson Boutte and the ineffectiveness of rookie Kyle Williams. DeMario “Pop” Douglas is functionally the WR3, sharing the role with Boutte when he is healthy.

There are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET, where we break down all the action with the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Tight End | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

Hunter Henry has 63 targets, seeing 10 last Sunday and earning six or more in three of the last four games. He is a trusted outlet for Maye, and his 13 red zone targets are the most on the team, with Diggs at 10. Veteran Austin Hooper plays on around half the offensive sets, though he is mostly employed as a blocker to help the injury decimated offensive line. Last week he did see four targets, but he has only 19 for the whole season.

Kicker | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

Rookie Andres Borregales is chugging along, converting on 19 of 21 (90.5%) field attempts, including all three from 50-plus yards. He had a strong four-year career with the University of Miami, leading the ACC in field goals attempted and made as a junior, and PATs kicked and converted his senior season.

Defense | Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13

New England has 13 takeaways through 12 games, with the Giants suffering 13 turnovers in their 12 games. New York is giving up almost three sacks per tilt on a variety of starting quarterbacks, while the Patriots are recording around two quarterback takedowns each game.

NFL DFS Picks for Giants-Patriots NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 13: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Giants-Patriots

1. Drake Maye: Captain, My Captain!
2. Jaxson Dart: Very live for the multiplier slot.
3. TreVeyon Henderson: More dynamic than Stevenson, giving him a chance to get through the line of scrimmage scrum and into the second level of the defense.
4. Wan’Dale Robinson: There is an argument for him over Henderson on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring format.
5. Hunter Henry: Major role in the offense, regardless of the game flow.
6. Stefon Diggs: Needs a neutral or close score to increase his playing time and access his target upside.
7. Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Any missteps will open the door for Singletary.
8. Andres Borregales: Salary saver, though tonight the football will be rock hard with the game-time temperatures in the mid-20s.
9. Theo Johnson: Finally getting steady work.
10. New England DST: Homefield advantage, and while Dart is surprisingly effective, he is still a rookie.

Secondary Options

1. Younghoe Koo: Kicking in Gillette Stadium tonight will be a far cry from all his years in Atlanta.
2. Darius Slayton: Perfectly mediocre.
3. Devin Singletary: League average RB2.
4. Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas: Boutte is the most capable of this trio, Hollins gets the playing time since he is a good run blocker, and Douglas rounds out the group with his salary discount and surprising three touchdowns. Boutte is tied with Henry at a team-leading five, Diggs and Douglas are at three, and Hollins has two to his credit.
5. New York DST: The unit is not as bad as casual gamers may believe.