NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Broncos at Commanders (Week 13)

Denver (9-2) has the second-best record in the league, trailing only New England (10-2) and leading the AFC West by two games on Los Angeles and 3.5 ahead of Kansas City. Washington collapsed after a surprise run to the NFC Championship last year, losing significant games due to injuries impacting the starting quarterback, running back and both top wide receivers. The Broncos are 5.5-point road favorites tonight, with the Commanders looking at an 18.75 team total. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Broncos-Commanders Week 13 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action.

NFL Sunday Night Football Week 13 DFS Picks: Broncos-Commanders

NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13: Bo Nix

Nix has similar production to his rookie season, improving his sack rate but dropping from a 66.3% completion rate to 61.2% as coach Sean Payton allowed his protege to work deeper down the field and take more chances this year with his decision making improving. Still, his 220.1 passing yards per game are 16th overall this season, and his 18 aerial scores rank 11th. Nix’s rushing is down from 25.3 yards per game last year to 19.4, though he already has three rushing touchdowns in 11 games after getting four during his rookie campaign.

Denver Broncos Positional Preview

Running Back | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

JK Dobbins is on the injured reserve, which means rookie RJ Harvey is the lead back, with Jaleel McLaughlin elevated from the practice squad and enigmatic Tyler Badie backing him up. Harvey went from a 25% to 30% snap share to 61%, with Badie and McLaughlin each playing on eight (13%) offensive plays.

Harvey had 11 carries for 30 yards against Kansas City, converting on all three of his targets for another 20 yards. McLaughlin had six totes for 19 yards and a touchdown, with he and Badie each getting one target from Nix.

Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Harvey for 13.1 carries and 62.4 yards, plus 3.5 targets for 3.3 receptions and 23.6 yards, along with a 50% probability of scoring a touchdown. McLaughlin is at 5.9 carries and 28.5 yards with a 60% likelihood of getting a target. Badie is a potential salary saver on DraftKings ($1,400) and FanDuel ($2,200), though he projects for 2.3 carries and 10.9 yards with a 50% probability of seeing a target.

In the last six games, Washington allowed four different running backs to rush for over 100 yards, with six others seeing 40-plus combined yards. It is going to be in the low 40s, but it looks like any potential rain is not going to occur within the game window.

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Wide Receiver | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Five wideouts tallied 110-plus receiving yards against Washington, with another 10 topping 50 yards. This should be no shock, considering the Commanders are allowing 249.5 passing yards per game, ranking as the fifth worst team in the league. Injuries to cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos took down the depth of an already sketchy defensive backfield.

The Broncos saw Cortland Sutton (20.3% target share) and second-year receiver Troy Franklin (22.2%) consolidate the targets this season. It makes sense as Sutton has been a strong lead option for years under a variety of quarterbacks, while Franklin also played college ball with Nix. Marvin Mims Jr. (32 targets) returned last week after missing two games, and he shares the WR3 role with Pat Bryant (25), though both are well behind Franklin (81) and Sutton (74).

Lil’Jordan Humphry was signed off the New York Giants’ practice squad earlier this month, getting nine snaps last week. Coach Payton can’t seem to quit him, and this reunion likely means we won’t see Trent Sherfield Sr. or Michael Bandy anymore.

Tight End | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Adam Trautman is usually on the field for two-thirds of the snaps, with Evan Engram in the mix for 40% to 50% of the offensive action. There are individual games that ebbed and flowed from this baseline, though it was fairly consistent for the last month. Trautman is the main blocker, averaging one target per game, with Engram mostly on the field in passing situations. That led to 50 targets, including 19 in the last four tilts.

Nate Adkins and Lucas Krull are injured, so 41-year-old Marcedes Lewis served as the TE3 for the last three matchups, though he did not have a target in his three games as a Bronco.

Kicker | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Shout out to Wil Lutz for spending six years kicking indoors for the New Orleans Saints but converting to the inclement weather of the Mile High City. In his two-plus seasons (45 games) as Denver’s place kicker, Lutz has a stellar 88.6% success rate on his field goals while nailing his point-after-touchdown attempts at a 98% clip. The low-40s temperatures should not be an issue for the veteran, so feel free to roster to your heart’s content.

Defense | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Denver is sublime when it comes to sacking opposing quarterbacks, with 49 for the season, which would rank top 5 across any season in the last two decades … and there are a ridiculous six games still on the docket. This projects to 71.3 for a 16-game season, which would be just shy of the 72 by the 1984 Chicago Bears, a year before the Super Bowl Shuffle squad.

Looking at a 17-game season, the on-pace rate would yield 75.8, which would be well above the 70 sacks recorded by the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles.

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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13: Marcus Mariota

The OddsShopper Live Odds have the former Heisman Trophy winner at -109 for over 189.5 passing yards, -111 for more than 27.5 rushing yards and +200 for more than 1.5 passing scores. Only two quarterbacks had multiple passing touchdowns against Denver this season, though they were running quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and rookie Jaxson Dart.

Mariota had 159 rushing yards and one touchdown in his five starts, adding 34 more in a relief appearance against Dallas in Week 7. Justin Fields and Dak Prescott each had 31 rushing yards against the Broncos, tying for the most ceded by this sublime defense on the season.

Washington Commanders Positional Preview

Running Back | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

The Washington backfield is in flux after the team traded Brian Robinson Jr. just before the start of the season then losing Austin Ekeler for the season in the second game. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt peaked for three games between Weeks 4 and 6, rushing for 219 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries and converting all five of his targets for another 56 yards. In the five subsequent games, he recorded 154 yards on 54 carries for a 2.9-yard average, catching three of his five targets for 7 yards.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. took over the starting role, getting the first crack in the last two games, with 33 carries for 160 yards and two touchdowns over the last three. He has just one target on the season, though he did catch it for a 6-yard gain. Journeyman Jeremy McNichols is usually considered the passing down back, and while he leads the position with 20 targets since Ekeler’s injury, he had just three in the last three games.

Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Rodriguez for 10.5 carries and 49.8 yards with a 40% probability of getting a target and a 50% likelihood to score a touchdown. Croskey-Merritt is earmarked for half a dozen carries and 28.6 yards, accompanied by one target for 4.8 yards. McNichols is trending for 2.1 totes for 10 yards and 2.3 targets for 1.6 receptions and 11.5 yards. Yikes!!!!

Wide Receiver | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Terry McLaurin (quad) is expected to play tonight, having seen action only once since Week 3 as he deals with a quad injury. Veteran Robbie Chosen was released, bouncing between the active roster and the practice squad over the last couple months, and it sounds like Treylon Burks may be active tonight — yes, the 18th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, who never quite found his footing with the Tennessee Titans. Burks played 51% of the snaps in Week 9 when Luke McCaffrey was injured early in the Sunday Night Football loss against Seattle. In Week 10, Burks played on 39% of the snaps, though it was Chosen and Jacoby Jones getting the nod in Week 12.

Expect McLaurin to be rusty after the long layoff, but the tough matchup is also working against him. Deebo Samuel Sr. is the steady presence, missing Week 7, though otherwise playing 75% of the snaps in most other games. The long-time 49er leads the team with 68 targets, having a nice connection with both quarterbacks. Chris Moore (30 targets) and Jaylin Lane (22) will likely handle the WR3 role, with Burks being sprinkled in if he is indeed active.

There are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET, where we break down all the action with the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Tight End | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Zach Ertz continues to chug along, ranking second on the team with 57 targets, with five or more in five of the last six games. He could lose some opportunities to McLaurin, though with the fierce Denver pass rush coming off a bye, Mariota could look for short passes and hot routes, courtesy of Ertz. John Bates should be on the field for around half of the offensive snaps, serving as the blocking tight end. Ertz is capable in that role as well, and both are going to be needed tonight. Bates had nine targets in the last five games, so he should at least get one opportunity.

Ben Sinnott (ankle) was out last week, though he does not have an injury designation at this time. He is usually on the field for 15 to 20 offensive plays, but the former second-round pick has just three targets this year, and he had five in his rookie campaign. Still, he did catch all eight for 61 yards and two touchdowns. He is at the $200 minimum salary on DraftKings and will at least be on the field.

Kicker | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Jake Moody will play in his fourth game of the season tonight, with Washington being his third team this year. San Francisco cut him after he went 1-for-3 against Seattle in the opener. He signed with Chicago the next week, serving on the practice squad until getting the call in Week 6 to replace Cairo Santos. He had the game-winning kick as the clock reached zero on Monday Night Football, helping the Bears beat the Commanders 25-24 in Washington, so now things have come full circle.

Moody had a solid rookie campaign with the 49ers, leading the league with 61 point-after-touchdown attempts and 60 conversions. Unfortunately, his 84% success rate on field goals slipped dramatically to a 71% conversion rate last year and a 75% rate this year in his three games.

Defense | Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13

Washington is averaging just over two sacks per tilt, though Denver ceded only 13 on the season, which are the second fewest in the league. The Commanders have just six takeaways, ranking 31st on the season, with the Broncos suffering a tick over one takeaway per game.

NFL DFS Picks for Broncos-Commanders NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 13: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Commanders

1. Bo Nix: The offensive production is spread around, but Nix is the straw that stirs the drink.
2. Marcus Mariota: He is one of the better backups in the league, though as the regular starter he loses effectiveness.
3. RJ Harvey: Let’s see what the kid can do.
4. Zach Ertz: Just a hunch.
5. Troy Franklin: $2,000 discount from Sutton on FanDuel and $1,000 savings on DraftKings.
6. Wil Lutz: Quite possibly the best offensive option on the Commanders.
7. Cortland Sutton: Salary premium is creating a 34.8% to 46.7% popularity discount from Franklin on DraftKings, with a 31.9% to 42.6% rostership difference on the blue site.
8. Deebo Samuel Sr.: Whopping $10,000 salary on DraftKings and $12,400 on FanDuel does not account for the return of McLaurin.
9. Terry McLaurin: Do you trust him?
10. Denver DST: Even on the road, this unit belongs in the top 10.

Secondary Options

1. Evan Engram: Never seems to meet fantasy expectations.
2. Jake Moody: Hilarious that he beat the Commanders earlier this season and now he is going to suit up for the team tonight.
3. Jaleel McLaughlin: Intriguing salary; has contingent value if the rookie makes mistakes or is ineffective.
4. Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Lack of passing game involvement hurts.
5. Marvin Mims Jr.: Always a threat to score from anywhere on the field, including as the lead punt and kickoff returner; could also post a zero.