NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Packers at Cowboys (Sept. 28)

Sunday Night Football caps off another wild day in the NFL with upsets, obvious plays coming through and, of course, heartbreak. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Packers-Cowboys Week 4 Sunday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Jerry’s World in Dallas, Texas.

NFL Sunday Night Football Week 4 DFS Picks: Packers-Cowboys

Dallas is nearly a touchdown underdog at home, while Green Bay has a sizable 26.5 team total. The Cowboys once again look like a team putting the fun in dysfunctional, while the Packers suffered an ignominious 13-10 loss in Cleveland last weekend. The Browns have a strong defense, which is pretty much the exact opposite assessment for the Cowboys.

NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is adequate in the passing game, finally catching his first career touchdown last year. The one worry for tonight, besides the semi-aggressive salary cap hit, would be the Packers feeling judicious about keeping the workload for Jacobs at a dull roar whenever possible. Considering that the Packers are almost a touchdown road favorite, this may be a nice situation for head coach Matt LaFleur to give Jacobs a respite, if possible.

Behind Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson is the most likely candidate to pick up a handful of carries and any garbage-time opportunities, with Chris Brooks the passing-down back. It would make sense to craft a few lineups assuming that Wilson will get some mop-up duty, so consider the UDFA from Fort Valley State University alum — pause, heck before that he was with Johnson C. Smith University, aka the Golden Bulls, which makes me feel like we are in some sort of made-up world.

Anyway, we know that Wilson is a replacement-level running back, so he should at least be adequate in any positive Green Bay game flow scenarios. it is hard to envision too many environments where Jacobs fails, though based on his salary and popularity, he will need two scores to land in the “must play” bucket if the game reaches the expected total points.

One other thing of note, the expected iteration of the Green Bay offensive line tonight will be a first. Second-round rookie Anthony Belton (ankle) and right tackle Zach Tom (oblique) are out, and left guard Aaron Banks (groin) is doubtful. Tackle Rasheed Walker (quad) was limited in during early week practices but expected to play tonight. This should not prevent anyone from rolling with Jacobs, though it is something to keep in mind if the Packers are slow to start.

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Green Bay Packers Positional Preview

Quarterback | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Jordan Love is a more of a glorified game manager than an actual difference maker at quarterback. This is not to say that he is bad by any stretch of the imagination but to underscore that he is unlikely to win games by himself. Similar to Prescott, he is mobile, though only averaging 2.4 carries and 10.4 yards per game on the ground with five touchdowns in 35 games.

Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Love is -115 to exceed 234.5 passing yards, -114 to garner at least 5.5 rushing yards, and he has a -125 line to throw multiple touchdowns. These are far from eyepopping numbers, though given the state of the overall player pool, Love is on the short list to land in the multiplier slot.

Wide Receiver | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Defensive tackle Kenny Clark was part of the return for Parsons after spending nine seasons anchoring the Green Bay rushing defense. Unfortunately, he cannot help much with the back seven against the pass. Defensive backs Trevon Diggs (knee), DaRon Bland (foot) and Trikweze Bridges (knee) were full participants in practice, and none carries an injury designation. This will be the first game of the season for Bland, and hopefully his addition can help the secondary.

Jayden Reed is dealing with a Jones fracture in his foot, though he is currently sidelined with a broken collarbone. Last week he had surgery for both injuries, and he is likely out until Thanksgiving. Christian Watson is recovering from a torn ACL, with his return a couple weeks away as well. That still leaves a crowd at the position, though we can use last week’s game to infer tonight’s playing time.

Romeo Doubs saw his on-field participation reach a season high of 89% last week, as did rookie Matthew Golden (71%) and third-year man Dontayvion Wicks (68%). Malik Heath and rookie Savion Williams each maintained a 25% and 10% snap share, so it would appear that Reed’s opportunities will be spread out to the trio at the top.

Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have a relatively even split for targets tonight, with Golden and Doubs at 5.3 apiece, Wicks seeing 4.8, and 1.1 targets earmarked for the rest of the wideouts.

This is another “whack-a-mole” situation, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Tight End | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Tucker Kraft leads the team with 15 targets, and despite managing knee and elbow issues, he does not have an injury designation. The third-year pro is on the field for nearly 90% of the snaps, and he has very little competition from Luke Musgrave or John FitzPatrick. Last year Kraft saw 70 of the 87 (80%) targets to this position, and the 15 of 21 (71%) share should increase as the season continues to roll along. Musgrave has been on the field for 31% of the red zone snaps, with FitzPatrick seeing action on 11% and one look from Love.

Kicker | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Brandon McManus replaced Brayden Narveson in mid-October last year, the latter missing five of 17 field goal attempts on the season. The longtime Denver placekicker was solid, though this season he is 5 of 7, having missed a 48-yarder in Week 2, and he had a 43-yard attempt blocked last week with 21 seconds left in a 10-10 game, only to have the Browns rally to make a 55-yarder for the victory.

McManus has ample big-game experience, plus he has dealt with plenty of inclement weather, which is key for the latter half of the season at Lambeau Field. He is not on the hot seat yet, but this is a spot to keep an eye on for future primetime games.

Defense | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Green Bay have 10 sacks through the first three games, while Dallas has allowed five quarterback takedowns. The Cowboys have lost two fumbles and a whopping four interceptions, which makes the Pack Attack a fun click tonight.

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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4: Dak Prescott

Green Bay has one of the best defenses in the league, and after sitting out during training camp, Parsons continued to see more playing time each week. The Packers are fifth in the league with 10 sacks on the season while holding opposing quarterbacks to a 77.8 QBR, which ranks eighth overall. Joe Flacco, of course, was on the couch not that long ago, but the team did a solid job containing Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff.

Prescott is mobile on the pocket and can buy time, which is going to be put to the test tonight. The Dallas offensive line is a mess, and guard Tyler Booker (ankle) did not practice this week. Even in his younger years, Prescott never had more than 23 rushing yards per game on average; he just happened to rush for six scores in each of his first three seasons. He has only five rushing touchdowns in his last 56 starts, so he needs to do everything through the air.

Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview

Running Back | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Rookie Quinshon Judkins had a strong rushing game with 94 yards and one touchdown on 18 carries. That is more than David Montgomery (11/25/0), Jahmyr Gibbs (9/119/0), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (4/17/0) and Austin Ekeler (8/17/0) combined.

Javonte Williams has been a pleasant surprise after languishing in Denver post catastrophic knee injury. Miles Sanders appears to have a little left in the tank, but he is no more than a change-of-pace option. Williams is likely to be active in the passing game, posting 15 targets through the first three games, and with the fierce Green Bay defensive line, the short passes out of the backfield will be a necessary extension of the running game.

Sanders has been on the field for about one-quarter of the offensive action, seeing his snaps increase from 11 (18%) to 20 (22%) to 27 (36%) in each of the first three games. This is where that trend will probably settle in, with Williams dipping from 47 (77%) to 64 (72%) and just 44 (59%) last Sunday. It feels like a 60/40 is a comfortable baseline projection, with “hot hand” or game situations creating the variance. Hunter Luepke will be on the field for around a dozen plays, though he does not have any offensive touches.

Wide Receiver | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

George Pickens is going to have to make some key plays, otherwise this game could be a Dallas disaster. It was KaVontae Turpin who stepped into the void left by Lamb with a career-high 49 offensive snaps for a 66% share. He had 73 air yards on his three targets, converting on two looks for 64 yards.

Expect more short passes to Turpin in an effort to help Prescott get the ball out quickly and with the anticipation that the defense will be putting more resources on Ferguson. The well-versed returner earned Pro Bowl honors in two of his three seasons in the league, and he also has five rushing attempts in three games.

Jalen Tolbert saw six of his 12 targets on the year after Lamb went down. He was at least a reasonable contributor as a WR3 last year after getting just seven starts over his first two seasons. Expect an 80% on-field participation rate for Tolbert, and while this is not a comfortable click, he provides salary cap relief on both DraftKings ($3,800) and FanDuel ($4,800).

Keep in mind that Brandin Cooks is in New Orleans and Jonathan Mingo is still on the injured reserve, so expectations are that Jalen Cropper (who saw action in Week 10 last year) or Jalen Brooks (who played in 14 games) will be elevated from the practice squad. Ryan Flournoy played in two games thus far, with all three of his targets coming in Chicago.

Prescott was already tied for the league lead with 126 pass attempts, and he will probably be called upon for another 40-plus on Sunday Night Football. That means fantasy opportunities for plenty of pass catchers, which makes things fun for the single-slate format, though to be clear, this is a “whack-a-mole” situation.

Tight End | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Jake Ferguson has an appropriate salary assigned to him on both DraftKings ($8,400) and FanDuel ($9,000). He was peppered with targets in Week 3, seeing 14 for 13 catches and 82 yards. In Week 2 he had a dozen targets, catching nine for 78 yards. That is some serious volume, and his 27 receptions rank second on the season, behind only Puka Nacua (29).

The Packers have allowed the second-most yards to tight ends this season, which also bodes well for Ferguson. Brevyn Spann-Ford is on the field for around 20% of the snaps, while Luke Schoonmaker will step between the lines for one-third of the offensive action. Spann-Ford has two targets, while Schoonmaker has four, with each recording one catch.

Kicker | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Brandon Aubrey is delivering on lofty expectations with his distance and accuracy. He was the Week 2 hero, making a 64-yard field goal as the clock ran out in regulation, then he nailed a 46-yard game winner in overtime. He converted on all eight of his field goal attempts, including four of 50-plus yards.

Defense | Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Green Bay has one turnover on the season, with Love being intercepted in Cleveland. The Packers have allowed seven sacks on the year, five at the hands of the Browns. Dallas has one interception this season and four quarterback sacks. Advantage Green Bay.

NFL DFS Picks for Packers-Cowboys NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 4: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Packers-Cowboys

1. Josh Jacobs: Captain, my Captain!
2. Dak Prescott: Will likely have a hand in all of the Dallas touchdowns tonight.
3. Jordan Love: Solid choice as the Captain or MVP given his salary and the lack of ideal alternatives.
4. Brandon Aubrey: Yes, he is that good and in an excellent kicking environment.
5. Javonte Williams: Should push for 20 offensive opportunities.
6. Tucker Kraft: Trusted target when the stakes are high.
7. George Pickens: Needs to step up and show out if he wants to secure the bag this offseason.
8. Brandon McManus: Steady veteran; the real question is how many field goal attempts will he get against this “Ole” defense?
9. Dontayvion Wicks: Only $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel; second on the team in air yards.
10. Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs: Solid plays, though with their respective salaries, they need a touchdown to be DFS difference makers.
11. Jake Ferguson: How could I forget Fergalicious?! Originally I had the Green Bay trio on the same line, but it made sense to break out Wicks and I then lost track of Ferguson, since I had the “top ten” completed. Expect Ferguson to be heavily involved tonight, though at his appropriate salary, he does need a touchdown. For all the talk about Trey McBride rarely finding the end zone, Ferguson has not scored in his last 22 regular season games. Thank you to reader SSchus87 for pointing out this oversight.

Secondary Options

1. KaVontae Turpin: It would be a little surprising if he has a 66% snap share again, but expect a couple of rushing attempts and a few targets as Dallas needs to leverage him for a big play.
2. Ryan Flournoy and Jalen Tolbert: Flournoy is likely to get some of Turpin’s playing time from last Sunday with a week to prepare for life without Lamb. Tolbert is a steal at his salary for his expected on-field presence; targets and catches are, of course, a hurdle.
3. Green Bay D/ST: Parsons is -193 to record a sack tonight.