NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Ravens at Bills (Sept. 7)

Tonight if the first official installment of Sunday Night Football, and with the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Ravens-Bills Week 1 Sunday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Orchard Park, N.Y.

NFL Sunday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Ravens-Bills

This should be a fun game with both teams having all of their skill players healthy and, of course, the quarterbacks being last year’s two MVP frontrunners. Ultimately it was Josh Allen that ended up with the trophy, though Lamar Jackson was still the First-Team All-NFL signal caller.

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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1: Lamar Jackson

Jackson had just four interceptions, which were a low since becoming a full-time starter in 2019. He also had a strong season on the ground, with 915 yards being the most of the last four years, though he did play 17 games, which helped the total. On a per-game basis, Jackson still had 53.8 yards per game, which is strong considering how the backfield changed dramatically last year with the addition of Derrick Henry.

Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that this game has a lofty 50.5 total with the Ravens being sight road favorites of about 1 point. Jackson will have ample opportunities to make hay tonight, and he is projecting as one of the three best players to designate in the multiplier slot.

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Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview

Running Back | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Derrick Henry was amazing last year, tying for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns for the third time in his career. Despite 2024 being his age-30 season, he racked up 325 carries, clearing 300 for the fourth time in his last five healthy seasons. His 22 targets were a five-year low, but he did have two receiving scores, giving him five for his career and his first since 2019.

Head coach John Harbaugh is not going to overwork Henry, but he will be the primary rusher when the game is close and will still see plenty of volume, even though he is only on the field for 50% to 60% of the offensive action.

Justice Hill is the trusted backup and passing-down back who has been with the organization since 2019. Over the last two seasons, he had four rushing and four receiving scores, though he clearly is down the pecking order in the red zone, averaging one such opportunity per game.

Third-year back Keaton Mitchell did have a couple moments in the preseason, and he has flashed on a few plays in his first two years when healthy. That is the key qualifier, and it does appear that Mitchell is good to go, so we should expect him to get a look or three in the first couple quarters of action.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Henry with nearly 16 carries for just over 80 yards and a 60% likelihood of reaching pay dirt. Jackson is next with just over eight carries, while three are earmarked for the rest of the backfield. Hill projects for 3.13 targets, 2.58 catches and 20.1 yards, with Mitchell getting 1.4 targets for 9.9 yards.

Henry could see a target or two just to keep the defense honest, but with so much firepower across the board, that is probably not necessary.

Fullback Patrick Ricard is out with an injury, though he rarely touches the ball. This could open a game day roster spot for fifth-round rookie Rasheen Ali to be active if he hasn’t already secured a special teams role.

Wide Receiver | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Zay Flowers leveled up in a big way last year, building on a solid rookie campaign by earning a Pro Bowl nomination. He had just eight more targets and three fewer receptions than his first season, but crushed with 1,059 yards, which was a 201-yard jump. Expectations are high and he could push for 1,200 yards, particularly with tight end Isaiah Likely on the shelf and aging veteran DeAndre Hopkins and inexperienced Devontez Walker sharing the role as the WR3.

Rashod Bateman signed a three-year, $36.8 million deal this offseason with $20 million guaranteed. He was a key contributor last year, posting highs across the board, and he had nine of the 17 touchdowns produced by the wideouts.

Tight End | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Likely is out after suffering a slight foot fracture in late July, which required surgery. That opens things up for three-time Pro Bowl nominee Mark Andrews, who remains a trusted pass catcher for Jackson. He should push for double-digit fantasy points, even in the half-PPR scoring format on FanDuel, making him an intriguing piece of the puzzle tonight.

Charlie Kolar will be the TE2, though the DFS sites got a jump on his salary with the knowledge of Likely’s absence. He is in play on DraftKings ($1,600), projecting for around 3 fantasy points, but he is a tougher click on FanDuel ($1,200), even with the revamped salary structure.

That is a good example of the difference between the full- and half-point-per-reception scoring formats for a low-volume receiver. Kolar had a regular role last year, playing on around one-third of the snaps in the regular season and 30% in the playoffs, though he had only 11 targets, with the last coming in Week 12.

Kicker | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Rookie Tyler Loop will be replacing Justin Tucker as the Ravens used a sixth-round selection on the former Arizona Wildcat. Loop started out as a punter in 2020 for Arizona, becoming the full-time place kicker for the four subsequent seasons. He had an 83.8% conversion rate on 80 attempts, making 126 of 128 (98.4%) of his PATs.

Defense | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Allen had career bests with a 2.82% sack and 1.2% interception rates. Baltimore was second in the league with 54 regular season sacks, though the Ravens averaged just one takeaway per tilt and Buffalo had only eight turnovers on the season.

This will be the second season for defensive coordinator Zack Orr. The Ravens did get to Allen for three sacks in Week 4 last year, which were the most by any team and a significant portion of his 14 total in the regular season. In the postseason, the Ravens sacked Allen once, though he attempted only 22 passes.

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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1: Josh Allen

Though the Bills stumbled to a 35-10 loss in Baltimore during the Week 4 matchup, Buffalo did get payback with a 27-25 home victory in the Divisional Round. Allen really spread things around last year in the passing game, overcoming the absences of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Bills had just two players with more than 50 targets, and Mack Hollins saw 50 on the button.

It will be interesting to see how the defensive overhaul works out with the addition of Joey Bosa, Tre’Davious White (doubtful, ankle) Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht, with the team also selecting six defensive players in the draft. That is a lot of turnover, and it could take time to gel under defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, who is in his second season calling the shots on that side of the ball. If things are a little off, the juggernaut offense of the Ravens could put some quick scores on the board — which bodes well for Allen needing to pile up the precious fantasy goodness.

Buffalo Bills Positional Preview

Running Back | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Buffalo has a crowded backfield, and while James Cook is the lead option, it is important to note that he was on the field for 61% of the snaps in Week 1 and then never reached that high again. From the Week 12 bye through the playoffs, Cook played under 45% of the snaps, with a high of 52% in the Divisional Round against Baltimore. In the three playoff games, he averaged a solid 17.7 totes per game for 90.7 yards and a trio of tuddies.

The competition remains the same with Ty Johnson being the favored passing-down back, and Ray Davis is in his second season, so he should be less prone to rookie lapses. Cook went from two rushing touchdowns and four receiving in 2023 to a league-leading 16 last year with two through the air. He signed a four-year, $46 million deal with $28.8 million guaranteed.

Expect the rushing touchdowns to slide back to the 8 to 10 range since he is still competing with Allen in the red zone, as the reigning MVP boasts 27 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Cook for 12.91 carries and 60.3 yards, plus two targets and 1.53 receptions for just over a dozen yards. Davis is earmarked for 4.39 totes, 20.53 yards and about a 20% of getting a target. Johnson is projected for two targets, just over a dozen yards and 2.73 rushing attempts for 12.83 yards. To complete the picture, Allen is estimated to see 7.42 carries for 34.71 yards.

Cook has the fourth-highest salary on DraftKings ($9,200) and FanDuel ($10,400), which is a lofty cap hit even as the expected lead in this split backfield. He needs 100-plus combined yards and a touchdown to start to return a profit at this salary. Including the playoffs, he managed that feat six times, with four other games of 90-plus yards and a score, which is about half his performances meeting that arbitrary threshold.

Wide Receiver | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

There has been some turnover at this position for a second consecutive year with Hollins and mid-season add Amari Cooper out, while Joshua Palmer signed a three-year, $29 million deal in free agency and journeyman Elijah Moore landed a one-year, $5 million offer.

Second-round selection Keon Coleman had an uneven rookie campaign, though the team appeared to be accepting of his growing pains, and he did at least have an upward trajectory through the playoffs.

Khalil Shakir was the mainstay, leading the team in targets, and it would not be a surprise if that were the case again this season. He dealt with a high ankle sprain in training camp, and while he is not on the final injury report, it is still worth keeping that in mind.

Curtis Samuel struggled with various nagging injuries in the regular season, though he only missed a couple of games. His playing time spiked in four games without Coleman and one without Shakir, but he didn’t really provide much in the way of fantasy production. The former Panther and Commander is likely to be ahead of Moore, though still behind the rest of the wideouts and the tight ends in the target pecking order, assuming everyone is active.

Tight End | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

It is interesting that most gamers still think of Dalton Kincaid as a tight end who is in direct competition with Dawson Knox. It could be argued that snaps are up for grabs, depending on formations and game flow, but through most of the regular season last year, Kincaid was on the field with Knox or Quintin Morris for 10% to 30% of the total offensive plays.

From a pass-catching lens, Kincaid is more of a giant slot receiver, while Knox is the main in-line, traditional tight end. They are not directly competing for targets, except maybe in the red zone — but that is diluted by the running game as well as Allen not playing favorites.

Kincaid had 10 red zone looks and scored twice last year, while Knox saw seven and had one touchdown. In 2022, prior to Kincaid being drafted, Knox had a Pro Bowl season that saw him with six touchdowns after scoring nine in 2021. In his last 28 regular season games, he had three.

One final note, in 2023 Buffalo was in the middle of the pack with 579 passing attempts (34.1 per game), dropping to 26th last year with 520 (30.6 per game). There are just a lot of options for Allen, and no one pass catcher commands a large share of the pie.

Kicker | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Longtime Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass is on the injured reserve to start the season, so 41-year-old Matt Prater is going to be taking his place. Tonight he will become the oldest player to ever set foot on the field for the Bills. Prater has been in the league since 2007, so fantasy gamers are well aware of his current abilities. He was the starter last year for Arizona, though Chad Ryland replaced him after an early-season injury limited Prater to four games.

He always has had a big leg, even away from Denver where he spent seven seasons early in his career. Last year he was successful on his lone 50-yard attempt, and in the three prior years with Arizona he was 21-for-28 (75%).

Defense | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Baltimore allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the league last year, recording only 24, while Buffalo was around league average with just over two per game. The Bills were third in the league with 32 takeaways, while the Ravens had a scant 11 total turnovers.

Jackson did have the lowest sack rate of his career at 4.63%, but that is still worse than league average. He had just four interceptions for a truly microscopic 0.8% rate.

NFL DFS Picks for Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 1: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Bills

1. Josh Allen: How can we not give the reigning MVP top honors?!
2. Lamar Jackson: Only a whisker shy, and he would be the first mention if this game were in Baltimore.
3. Derrick Henry: Needs to score, though who can argue against the King when he has a 63% probability of a rushing touchdown tonight?
4. Zay Flowers: Lead target earner in a crowded situation, but talent is on his side.
5. Justice Hill: Yes, this is a run of Ravens, but at $3,000 on DraftKings it is hard to overlook Hill. He also is likely the kickoff returner with Mitchell.
6. Keon Coleman: Flip him and Hill on FanDuel, where Coleman is $4,800 and still projects better than Hill at $4,000. The $6,600 cap hit on DraftKings probably pushes Coleman out of the top 10.
7. Khalil Shakir: He was the leading receiver, but 821 yards and four scores was not particularly productive, especially considering that he was working through an ankle sprain in training camp.
8. Mark Andrews: He and Flowers are the go-to options for Jackson; has extra appeal with Likely out, though this is reflected in his salary.
9. Matt Prater: Old man gets the edge over the rookie, and we need salary savings (has not been added to the FanDuel player pool as of early Sunday morning, though that is likely to change).
10. Tyler Loop: Savings are needed from someone who at least has a relatively secure projectable role.

Secondary Options

1. James Cook: Talent is there, but like most of the Buffalo offense, so is the in-house competition for volume, as well as high-value touches. He would slot in just below Hill if we could be guaranteed of a minimum of 60% of the Bills backfield opportunities were his tonight. This looks like a major leverage point against the field, depending on where the projected tournament popularity lands prior to kickoff. If he is north of 35%, then it may be best to come in underweight. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. ET for the latest analysis on this and other decisions.
2. Joshua Palmer: Could run a lot of empty routes, similar to Hollins, but he is a better target earner and had moments with the Chargers, just not consistency while battling both established talents and emerging stars.
3. Rashod Bateman: Very much in play, though he does slip below some of his Buffalo counterparts.
4. Dalton Kincaid: So much competition in the Buffalo passing game and no established red zone role.
5. Ty Johnson: Value play on DraftKings ($2,400), though touchdown equity is low. Not quite as appealing on FanDuel ($3,800).

Lottery Tickets

1. Ray Davis: Now that Cooks is signed, expect Davis to see action between the 20s and low-leverage looks. He will definitely be involved but is now the third wheel.
2. DeAndre Hopkins: Could see some red zone looks and get a little of Likely’s workload; he is more of a situational luxury on this team as he looks for a postseason run.
3. Buffalo DST: Slight nod for being at home; both offenses limit sacks and turnovers.
4. Baltimore DST: Would trade spots with Buffalo if the Ravens were at home.
5. Dawson Knox: Last Buffalo player worthy of having his own line, just barely.
6. Keaton Mitchell: Last Baltimore player seeing a solo line; this is more of a DraftKings flier than a FanDuel one. Should share kickoff return duties with Hill.
7. Charlie Kolar, Curtis Samuel and Elijah Moore: Will definitely be on the field, though they collectively project for 4.3 offensive opportunities.
8. Rasheen Ali, Tylan Wallace, Jackson Hawes, Tyrell Shavers, Reggie Gilliam and Devontez Walker: Half of these guys are likely to be inactive; the remainder have uncertain roles with both teams mostly healthy and this being Week 1.