NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Commanders at Packers (Sept. 11)

Tonight brings the first NFL action for Week 2 with Thursday Night Football, and in this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Commanders-Packers Week 2 Thursday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Lambeau Field in Wisconsin.

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 2 DFS Picks: Commanders-Packers

Washington looks to continue riding the momentum that propelled the Commanders to the NFC Title game, while the Packers hope to have help from the Lambeau Field faithful once again for a primetime matchup. Green Bay is favored by a field goal in this game with a 48.5-point total.

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2: Jayden Daniels

Among his many excellent numbers, the two things that stand out the most are his 1.9% interception rate and his 891 rushing yards, trailing only Lamar Jackson. Expectations are lofty, though Daniels looked good in the opener with 11 runs for 68 yards, and while DFS gamers want to see more than 233 passing yards and a touchdown, he didn’t have any interceptions or fumbles against the Giants.

Green Bay is going to be a far tougher opponent than New York, though looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Daniels currently has -111 odds on his over 225.5 passing yards prop, +125 for over 1.5 passing touchdowns and -110 for over 46.5 rushing yards.

Backup receiver Noah Brown (knee) did not practice on Wednesday, but coach Dan Quinn indicated it was a rest day after limited practice on Monday and Tuesday, while running back Austin Ekeler (shoulder) was limited all three days. Brown’s absence would not have a dramatic impact on Daniels. However, if Ekeler is out, that will put a lot of pressure on rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (aka “Bill”) and Chris Rodriguez, who was a healthy scratch on Sunday.

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Washington Commanders Positional Preview

Running Back | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Ekeler was Sunday’s starter, though it was a surprise to see Rodriguez inactive. Croskey-Merritt was a seventh-round selection in the most recent draft, and he showed enough in training camp that the Commanders were willing to trade Brian Robinson Jr., who led the team in each of his three seasons.

Croskey-Merritt was a zero-star recruit out of high school, beginning his college journey at Alabama State, where he held a part-time role over four seasons (including the pandemic-shortened year and a redshirt freshman season) and rushed for 1,164 yards and 13 touchdowns. He then transferred to New Mexico and surpassed his Alabama State totals in one season, including two games of 200-plus rushing yards.

Things then got a little wonky as he transferred again, intending to finish out his eligibility with the Arizona Wildcats, though he flipflopped to Ole Miss, then back to Arizona, but encountered record keeping questions about his final year of eligibility. As a result, he only played in one game and then the East-West Shrine Bowl, where he was the offensive MVP.

The biggest question for the rookie is, how will he perform as a receiver? In his 27 games with Alabama State, he had 27 receptions for 259 yards and one touchdown. In 12 games for New Mexico, he had seven receptions for 72 yards and a score, and he did not have a catch in his lone appearance for Arizona.

While there are no answers on how he will produce in the passing game, it should be noted that in the opener four of his runs were for 10 or more yards, recording 82 total on 10 carries, along with a touchdown. The Packers are a much tougher defense than the Giants, but the 24-year-old rookie should not be written off as being just a “decimal back” until he has more of an established track record.

Assuming Ekeler plays, he has the edge on FanDuel with an $800 discount and 1 additional fantasy point on his median projection. On DraftKings, the $200 discount for Ekeler doesn’t move the needle, but the full-PPR scoring format has him with a 2-fantasy point advantage.

Because of the four-day turnaround, it would not be a complete surprise if Rodriguez were active for this game, particularly if Ekeler is more dinged up than is being let on at this time. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Wide Receiver | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

The Commanders brought in Deebo Samuel to help provide another multi-threat option for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. He is likely to see a similar role as in his San Francisco days, working a lot of short field routes and occasionally lining up in the backfield. Depending on Ekeler, there could be more of that tonight, allowing for a potential repeat of his 19-yard rushing touchdown in Week 1.

Terry McLaurin had a 79% snap share, getting one more play than Samuel, while Noah Brown was a distant third with a 47% participation rate. Samuel had a whopping 10 targets, while McLaurin had only four, though expect each to have a baseline of 7 to 12 opportunities going forward, depending on game flow and how opposing defenses are looking to contain the Commanders.

Brown had a trio of targets, while rookie Jaylin Lane saw two on 21 total plays. Veteran Chris Moore was on the field for 27% of the snaps, turning his lone look into a 34-yard reception. The 32-year-old has been in the league for 10 seasons now, spending most of last year on the Arizona and Washington practice squads, appearing in five games for the Cardinals without any offensive opportunities. Luke McCaffrey is also lurking, though ultimately expectations are that Lane will take on most of the workload vacated by Dyami Brown as he ramps up his experience.

Tonight the Stokastic NFL stat projections have Samuel and McLaurin for 6.7 targets each, with Brown at 3.1, Lane at 1.3 and the rest of the receivers earmarked for 2.1. Ertz is third overall at 4.8, Ekeler at 3.7, and the rest of the running backs and tight ends project for 2.3 combined targets.

Tight End | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Zack Ertz developed nice chemistry with Daniels last year, becoming a trusted safety valve option. That, of course, was before the addition of Samuel and with Ekeler missing time due to a concussion. Ertz will be 35 years old in November, so it would not be a surprise to see him slide closer to a 50% snap share than the 66% he had last year. He should still be heavily involved in high-leverage situations, but having him available for future weeks is also a priority.

John Bates is a decent blocker who has held this role the last two seasons with Ertz and Logan Thomas being the receiving options. He had 28 targets in 14 games in 2023, but that slipped to 13 in 17 games last year. Though he didn’t get any Week 1 looks, he is an extreme punt option at $600 on DraftKings.

Second-year man Ben Sinnott had only 17 offensive snaps over the final three regular season games last year, with eight in Week 1 (11%). Until we see otherwise, he is mostly an afterthought coming off five targets for five catches, 28 yards and a touchdown last year.

Kicker | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Matt Gay is in his first season as the Commanders kicker, having been released by Indianapolis this spring. In his last two seasons, he was 11-for-22 (50%) from 50-plus yards, though gamers may remember that he also became the first kicking in NFL history to convert on four field goal of 50 or more yards in 2023, including the game winner in overtime as the Colts upset the Ravens in Baltimore 22-19. On Sunday he made all three of his point after touchdown attempts, though he did not have any field goal tries.

Defense | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Washington averaged one takeaway per tilt last year, and that was in the bottom quartile of the league. The Packers averaged 1.1 giveaways, which was in the middle of the road and made sense given a heavy running game approach and a conservative passing offense. This gives the Commanders a below-average DST projection, which, of course, could easily be buoyed by a scoop-and-score or pick-6.

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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2: Josh Jacobs

Last year Jacobs made his third Pro Bowl squad while also rushing for a career-high 15 touchdowns and catching his first ever touchdown pass. He had a heavy workload, and for now it looks like that is going to be the case again. Emmanuel quietly had 502 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry, though he saw just 14 targets. In the three final regular season games, he ran for a touchdown, finishing with four total on the year.

Wilson is a lottery ticket on DraftKings ($2,000), though he is far less appealing on FanDuel ($3,600) and a dicey play overall given his lack of pass-catching opportunities. Brooks is in the Bates category as an extreme DraftKings ($400) punt.

Green Bay Packers Positional Preview

Quarterback | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Jordan Love helped the Packers get an efficient win against Detroit in the opener, as Green Bay had the ball for just 24:35, with 25 rushing and 22 pass attempts. Ten different players saw targets and all caught at least one ball, totaling 16 receptions, 188 yards and two touchdowns.

Love is adequate when called upon to run the ball, but he had only 334 yards and five touchdowns across his last 33 regular season games on 78 carries. Last year he had one rushing score as the team was completely content to let Jacobs handle the ground-and-pound approach in the red zone. Last season, Love had six games with more than 250 passing yards, though only one of more than 275. He started off the season with multiple passing touchdowns in his first five tilts, but he only had three such performances in the final 10 games.

The Lions looked a little out of sorts with John Morton having taken over the offensive coordinator role from Ben Johnson. That was not the only reason, and to be fair, head coach Dan Campbell is still there, and prior to his two seasons as the offensive coordinator in Denver, Morton was the senior offensive assistant for the Lions.

Expectations are that Washington will put more points on the board or at least provides a more consistent threat than the Motor City Kitties had at Lambeau Field on Sunday. This should help Love push over 30 passing attempts. Opponent and game context are major drivers for Love putting up fantasy points and pushing the team outside the methodical approach preferred by head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, who is going into his fourth season as the offensive leader.

Wide Receiver | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

This receiving corps is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Even the Week 1 snap count does not provide much of a key. Romeo Doubs led the way with 34 (71%) plays, followed by rookie Matthew Golden (23, 48%), Dontayvion Wicks (22, 46%), Jayden Reed (18, 38%), Malik Heath (11, 23%) and rookie Savion Williams (three, 6%).

Reed led the position with five targets, while Doubs had four, Golden and Wicks saw two, Williams one and Heath none.

Doubs looks like the most favorable play of the bunch on DraftKings ($4,000), which is half the salary of Reed ($8,200). It is key to remember that Reed is playing through a Jones fracture.

For those wondering, per Dr. Wikipedia, a Jones fracture is when the bone between the toe and the base of the foot is fractured, which usually develops in activities with a lot of starting, stopping and quickly pivoting. So that’s football, basketball, tennis and dancing, which is what Dr. Jones saw the most of in the early 1900s when he was conducting his research.

The recommended recovery is either rest with a walking boot/cast or surgery. In the interim, it is about dealing with pain and an increased probability of furthering the hairline fracture.

Reed tends to be more of a situational player, logging a sub-60% snap share in 10 of 18 total games in each of his first two season, including three playoff performances. He had a touchdown and 45 yards on three catches on Sunday, which would have him as a neutral option if he were to replicate those results tonight. For his career, he had 50 or more yards receiving in 13 of 39 (33%) games, with 15 receiving and three rushing touchdowns. The former Michigan State Spartan has only eight games with more than four receptions, which has him relatively touchdown dependent on a crowded offense while playing at less than full health.

Golden ($6,400) splits the difference between his two established counterparts, while enigmatic and oft-injured Wicks is a $3,600 on DraftKings, though he has half the median fantasy point projection as Doubs.

FanDuel is mostly a mirror image with proportional salaries, similar to DraftKings. The blue site has Reed at $9,800, which makes him a differentiation option with less than 20% combined tournament representation. It is a similar projection on DraftKings, as Doubs has double his popularity on both sites.

For those looking to make a stand, Reed is a quick way to start the foundation of a differentiated lineup.

Tight End | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Tucker Kraft led the team with seven touchdown catches last year, and he was fourth with 70 targets, trailing the next three by six or fewer opportunities.

It is hard to believe this is only his third season, as it is for Luke Musgrave, with the duo being drafted in the third and second rounds.

Musgrave is a capable tight end, though he has only played in 18 games due to various injuries.

In the opener, Kraft played on all 48 offensive snaps, with Musgrave on the field for 17 (49%) and John FitzPatrick 15 (43%). That is more two-tight end action than in any game last year, so it will be interesting to see if this is a new trend or if things slide back to three wide receiver formations given the plethora of that position.

Kicker | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Brandon McManus is in his second season kicking for Green Bay. This is his 12th NFL campaign, including nine seasons with Denver and one with Jacksonville. He replaced Brayden Narveson in mid-October after he missed five of his 17 field goal attempts to that point. McManus made all three of his attempts from beyond 50 yards, though more importantly, he was successful on 22 of 23 (96%) of his total field goals.

Defense | Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Green Bay had four sacks in the opener, which was pretty solid when considering that Detroit allowed just under two per game last year. The Commanders surrendered three against the Giants, and last year the team ceded just shy of three per game. The Packers had one interception on Sunday, while Washington did not have any turnovers and last year the team suffered a tick shy of one turnover per tilt.

NFL DFS Picks for Commanders-Packers NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 2: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Commanders-Packers

1. Jayden Daniels: Already the face of the franchise.
2. Josh Jacobs: Not flashy but omnipresent in the LaFleur offense.
3. Romeo Doubs: Salary is a thing, and he has an appealing one; terrific foundational play in all game formats.
4. Tucker Kraft: Another strong fantasy point-per-dollar option on both sites.
5. Deebo Samuel: Looks right at home after one game. Lead kickoff returner, with McCaffrey the second man.
6. Jordan Love: Does not have the same touchdown equity as Jacobs, though that is the main driver for each. There is nothing wrong with flipping this duo.
7. Austin Ekeler: Would slot above Samuel if there were no concerns about his shoulder.
8. Brandon McManus: Salary saver, far from flashy, still steady.
9. Matt Gay: Similar to McManus with about 10% less fantasy projection.
10. Terry McLaurin: Missing time while negotiating his contract looks to have set him back a bit. That should no longer be an issue by Week 4; tonight we shall see.

Secondary Options

1. Zach Ertz: Still a red zone threat; expect the elevated workload from the last two seasons to slowly subside, particularly against weaker opponents. That is not much of a concern tonight, aside from the soon-to-be 35-year-old on short rest. At least it is early in the season.
2. Jayden Reed and Matthew Goldman: Crowded wide receiver room and lofty salaries. If Reed were out, Goldman would probably push one of kickers out of the top 10. Each saw action as a punt returner in the opener.
3. Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Gets a real test tonight.
4. Dontayvion Wicks and Noah Brown: Similar salaries and median fantasy point projections; Brown has far less cachet and name recognition in the DFS world.
5. Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson: This is a crowded middle section, though it is because any one of this group could pop off or fade away into obscurity tonight. Brooks is just $400 on DraftKings, and he out-snapped Wilson ($2,000) 9 to 2 in the opener. After the Week 10 bye last year, this duo had a mostly even snap share behind Jacobs, though Brooks had 11 targets to Wilson’s five, with each getting three in the lone playoff game.

Lottery Tickets

1. Green Bay D/ST: Should be able to gin up a few sacks and a couple of turnovers. Micah Parsons (back) is questionable, and he played less than half the snaps in the opener. Defensive lineman Brenton Cox Jr. is out, while defensive backs Nate Hobbs (knee) and Zayne Anderson (knee) are questionable.
2. Washington D/ST: Would still be behind Green Bay if this was a home game. Defensive lineman Deatrich Wise Jr. (knee) is out.
3. Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez: If Ekeler is inactive, then both would move ahead of the DSTs; if Ekeler is in and one or both are active, this is the appropriate ranking.
4. Luke Musgrave and John Bates: Will the TE2s have magical powers for this island game?
5. Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore and Savion Williams: Lane returned punts, Williams saw kickoff duty.
6. Malik Heath, Luke McCaffrey, Ben Sinnott, John FitzPatrick, Colson Yankoff, Yakov Smirnoff, Brett Favre and Robert Griffin III: Sorry, not tonight.