NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Cowboys at Eagles (Sept. 4)

The NFL is welcoming a new season as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Cowboys-Eagles Week 1 Thursday Night Football DFS plays for the inaugural 2025 NFL Showdown slate.

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 1 DFS Picks: Cowboys-Eagles

What’s old is new again as the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles are getting to unveil their championship banner in front of division rival Dallas. There have been massive changes for both teams — especially the Cowboys — but most importantly, FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!

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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1: Dak Prescott

Week 1 and Week 18 tend to carry the most uncertainty for DFS analysis, with no real substantive data to rely on at the start of the season and pure chaos on the final regular season Sunday. This article series will continue to evolve in the approach to conveying information as more actual statistics and games are in the books.

Jerry Jones has again been stirring the pot, essentially being the de facto general manager for the high-profile changes. These include elevating Brian Schottenheimer to the head coach role, replacing Mike McCarthy after four seasons, two of which saw Schottenheimer as the offensive coordinator. That at least keeps some continuity, though this will be the first time Schottenheimer has held a head coaching position at any level of the game.

Because of a dreadful running game and what appears to be a weaker offensive line, Prescott is going to have to take on a heavy load of moving the sticks against a tough Philadelphia defense in front of a rabid Eagles crowd. Volume expectations have him with the best fantasy point-per-dollar ratio among the key contributors for the “Boys, though his receivers close the gap under the full-PPR scoring format.

This team should be somewhat fantasy friendly since the defense is now missing Micah Parsons after negotiations with Jones for a new salary turned sour. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is out after one year, and Matt Eberflus landed the gig after flaming out as the leader of the Chicago Bears. Opposing teams should be racking up gaudy point totals, so many fantasy analysts are hopeful that the Cowboys passing game gets a boost, similar to the Cincinnati Bengals of the last couple of years with a putrid defense.

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Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview

Running Back | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Aside from fullback Hunter Luepke, there is a new cast of characters for the Dallas running game. Out are Ezekiel Elliott, who was not effective at all in his swan song return to the franchise after a one-year dalliance with the New England Patriots, and Rico Dowdle signed with Carolina to back up Chuba Hubbard in the offseason. Deuce Vaughn was cut during the preseason as well.

Javonte Williams is going to be the starting running back for America’s Team, though we saw how his career cratered in Denver. Miles Sanders was brought in as the veteran presence, but he has appeared to be a step slower than last year, and he has been dealing with various nagging injuries.

The team drafted Jaydon Blue in the fifth round, with his home state ties being a bit of a factor for the Houston native who spent the last three seasons playing for the University of Texas. He has decent speed, averaging 5.4 yards on 214 college carries and 13.2 yards on 56 receptions. He had 14 touchdowns in 15 games last year, eight on the ground and six as a receiver.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections indicate that things are going to be crowded, though expectations are that Williams has around half of the opportunities with upside to 60%. That leaves him with a median projection of 9.31 carries for 39.95 yards, accompanied by 3.49 targets for 2.35 receptions and 14.51 yards. Sanders is next with 4.35 totes for 16.46 yards, projecting for 1.92 targets, 1.52 receptions and 7.9 yards against the team that drafted him.

Blue is all but assured of getting mop-up duty and a few schemed plays if the game is somehow close. His median projections are not fun with 2.57 carries for 9.21 yards and a similar receiver line as Sanders. He is just $2,400 on the blue site, while a $5,000 tag on DraftKings is more punitive.

Wide Receiver | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Major changes are afoot here. George Pickens was acquired from Pittsburgh, along with a sixth-round selection, as Dallas sent a third-rounder in 2026 and a fifth-rounder in 2027. Pickens is an unrestricted free agent next year, so he will be looking for a big payday. There is a strong probability it may come from the Cowboys, with the team having not found a suitable wingman for the otherworldly CeeDee Lamb.

This position is likely to be a two-man show tonight given Jalen Tolbert only has 890 receiving yards after three seasons. The former Alabama star did have seven touchdowns last year, though he was inactive for quite a few games in his rookie campaign, despite being a third-round pick. Remember when Jones traded a fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo and a seventh-round pick last year? Yes, it still makes me chuckle as well.

Sadly for Mingo, he is on the injured reserve, which means KaVontae Turpin should see some offensive action, in addition to being the lead returner. He will have competition from Blue in the designed play arena, though there should be opportunities for both in this top-heavy offense searching for a spark, particularly in the running game. Turpin was a First-Team All-Pro as the kickoff returner, and he made his second Pro Bowl squad, missing out in his sophomore campaign.

Tight End | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Jake Ferguson was third on the team last year in receptions and yards, ranking second for targets, despite missing a trio of tilts. He should see less attention now that Pickens is on the team, and while that probably will cost him some potential volume, it also means less defensive attention. Expect at least a couple targets up the right sideline from Prescott, which could easily hit for 20-plus chunk yards.

Luke Schoonmaker is the TE2, and he should be on the field for around half the snaps. Last year in three games without Ferguson, he did have 16 targets, and he also had another 10 in a game that saw Ferguson leave early. Prescott was only the quarterback for one of these matchups, a Week 2 affair against New Orleans that saw Schoonmaker convert all six of his opportunities for 43 yards.

Kicker | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in the league, earning Pro Bowl honors each of his first two seasons. He was First-Team All-Pro as a rookie and Second-Team last year, with Chris Boswell earning the mantle.

Defense | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

There is always a chance for a splash play with a kick return from Turpin or a scoop-and-score or pick-six. However, total sacks and turnovers do not project well for most defenses against Philadelphia, let alone one with this many holes and personnel changes.

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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1: Jalen Hurts

The Philadelphia defense is not expected to be as strong as last year, and head coach Nick Sirianni has indicated he would like to not put as many carries on Saquon Barkley. From a macro perspective, that should mean more opportunities for the passing game, though we can see on the OddsShopper Live Odds Page that most books have Philadelphia favored by 8.0 points, with BetMGM at 8.5. That likely means Hurts will not have to put the petal to the metal tonight, though he could easily have three-plus combined touchdowns.

Philadelphia Eagles Positional Preview

Running Back | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

There is not much left to say about Barkley, who put up the most rushing yards in an NFL season, playoffs included. He ran for 2,005 yards in his 16 regular season games, which was only 100 yards shy of the all-time record by Eric Dickerson, also in 16 games back in 1984. Barkley rested in Week 18, but he also elected to stay on the sidelines in a few lopsided games, which was a neat move. He won a Super Bowl and was the Offensive Player of the Year, finishing third in the MVP race.

Longtime Eagle Kenneth Gainwell is now with Pittsburgh, so second-year running back Will Shipley is expected to be the next man up, with journeyman AJ Dillon the third option. Dillon missed all of last season with a neck injury, and “Quadzilla” was not particularly productive in training camp.

There is a path to mop-up duty for Shipley, though his median fantasy point projection is only for a handful of points. He is particularly appealing on DraftKings ($2,000) and rivals Blue on FanDuel ($3,400).

Wide Receiver | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

AJ Brown has been working through a hamstring issue, and while he does not have an injury designation at this time, gamers are understandably nervous as we all remember the Christian McCaffrey kerfuffle from last year.

Expectations are that the four-time Pro Bowler will suit up tonight, though it would not be a surprise if he had a slightly reduced presence, particularly if Dallas folds early.

DeVonta Smith missed four games last year, ending his streak of 1,000-yard seasons at two. He still had 833 yards and eight touchdowns, and he actually out-targeted Brown in six of their 14 shared games (including playoffs), with each seeing five looks in the Super Bowl.

He is not quite the 1B but clearly a key cog in this high-flying offense. There pretty much is nobody worthy of calling the WR3, and last year it was Jahan Dotson who was brought over from Washington in a deal that saw the Commanders netting a third-round pick for the 16th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. Dotson had 30 targets, though 11 came in Week 18 when the regulars all sat. In a piling-on moment, Philadelphia made a late preseason trade with Houston for John Metchie III.

Tight End | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Dallas Goedert has dealt with a myriad of injuries since the team traded Zach Ertz, but he is effective when ambulatory. In 36 games over the last three seasons, Goedert averaged 5.7 targets, 4.3 receptions and a tick shy of 50 yards, scoring eight total touchdowns.

Grant Calcaterra and Kylen Granson will be on the field, and those watching the game will likely hear their names called, though it may not be due to a target. Calcaterra does have significant experience filling in for Goedert, and he should be on the field for around half the snaps, which is a good first step. Granson spent the last four years with Indianapolis, falling just shy of 1,000 yards for his career and scoring one lonely touchdown.

Kicker | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Jake Elliott was a Second-Team All-Pro in 2023, which is impressive considering most of the Eagles games are outdoors. Last year he dealt with what some would call “the yips” in the middle of this season. To his credit he nailed 10 of 11 (90.9%) attempts in the playoffs, including all four in the Super Bowl. He was a little less effective on extra points, converting on 13 of 16 (81.5%).

Defense | Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1

Dallas has no real rushing game, and there are questions about the offensive line with Zack Martin retiring after 11 seasons, nine Pro Bowl squads, seven NFL All-Pro First-Teams and two Second-Teams. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a name even casual DFS gamers have heard, and he should again have the Eagles ready to rock and roll this season.

NFL DFS Picks for Cowboys-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Eagles

1. Jalen Hurts: Hurts, so good.
2. Saquon Barkley: Still breaking the hearts of New York Giants fans; DFS gamers would like to see a few more targets in the passing games.
3. CeeDee Lamb: Gets the nod over his quarterback on DraftKings.
4. Dak Prescott: Moves above Lamb on FanDuel, with half-PPR scoring being less impactful.
5. DeVonta Smith: Gets a discount to Brown of $1,600 or around 16% on FanDuel and $1,000 on DraftKings for an approximate 12% savings.
6. Will Shipley: Salary savings are helpful, plus likely will be the lead back in the fourth quarter of a lopsided game.
7. George Pickens: Even better savings potential from Lamb than Smith has with Brown.
8. A.J. Brown: Would likely flip spots with Smith if we knew he was 100% healthy; salt to taste.
9. Javonte Williams: Will get the first crack at touches, plus he had 128 targets over his last two seasons in Denver across 33 games.
10. Brandon Aubrey: Booming leg gives the Dallas offense hope if they can get inside the Philly 40-yard line. Light rain in the forecast for tonight, though coverage may not reach the stadium.

Secondary Options

1. Jake Ferguson: Has the trust and rapport with Prescott that gives him the edge over Pickens and Williams in the early portion of the season — and he may hold that position all year.
2. Jake Elliott: May get more PAT attempts than field goal looks; still a solid foundational play in cash games (H2H, 3-mans, 50/50s, etc.).
3. Philadelphia D/ST: Amazing unit on all three levels last year, with linebacker Zack Baun finishing fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting and defensive lineman Jalen Carter earning second-team All-Pro honors. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. is coming off a decent rookie season, though he is unlikely to reach the same heights as his father, who had four Pro Bowls and two All-Pro teams. Baun has a strong veteran presence, plus that still leaves Cooper DeJean as a key cover option, while safeties Sydney Brown and Reed Blankenship are thumpers.
4. KaVontae Turpin: Not a super salary saver, but he does have an offensive role coming off career-highs of 52 targets and 16 carries, in addition to kick return duties.
5. Dallas Goedert: So many mouths to feed; he will have good games this year and tonight could be one of them, but his salary is not as friendly as it was in the Super Bowl.

Lottery Tickets

1. Jadon Blue: Could see between zero and a dozen offensive opportunities, neither of which would be a complete shock.
2. Miles Sanders: Outside of a “Remember Me?!” touchdown, it would take an injury to Williams or a rookie meltdown from Blue to have Sanders see more than a handful of touches tonight.
3. Dallas D/ST: Likely to be on the field a lot.
4. Jalen Tolbert: He too is likely to be on the field a fair amount, but soooooooo many others are ahead of him on an already shaky offense.
5. Luke Schoonmaker: There is an argument he should be above Tolbert on DraftKings at less than half the salary. It will be interesting to see how the popularity for this duo shakes out as savvy gamers will want the less represented option in the large-field tournaments.
6. Jahan Dotson and John Metchie III: They do project for more than 2 fantasy points, but when accounting for salaries, they are comparable to those on the next line.
7. Hunter Luepke and Grant Calcaterra: Each has a distinct role for their team, though fantasy opportunity is thin.
8. Kylen Granson, Johnny Wilson, AJ Dillon, Ryan Flournoy, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Troy Aikman and Ron Jaworski: Maybe next time.