NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Dolphins at Bills (Sept. 18)

Tonight brings the first NFL action for Week 3 with Thursday Night Football, and in this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Dolphins-Bills Week 3 Thursday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 3 DFS Picks: Dolphins-Bills

Buffalo looks like one of the leading Super Bowl contenders, while Miami may see head coach Mike McDaniel terminated before Halloween. The Bills are favored by nearly two touchdowns at home, with the Dolphins likely to be easily dispatched by the early second half.

👉 Check Out the FREE Expert Picks »

The Free Picks on Tails are your shortcuts to smarter DFS plays AND bets … no signup, no strings. Here you will find a bunch of expert picks, Sims data, DFS strategy and more, updated daily.

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3: De’Von Achane

It would appear that Achane will see ample opportunities, regardless of the game flow, as head coach Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat already. Things get pretty bleak for fantasy gamers after Achane, with the other Miami running backs getting three carries for 12 yards, all by rookie Ollie Gordon II. Fullback Alec Ingold has seen four targets, catching three for 14 yards, and Gordon converted both his aerial opportunities for a scant 4 yards.

Jeff Wilson Jr. was on the field for two offensive snaps Sunday, being the only other running back to get playing time on the season. Jaylen Wright (knee) has been cleared to play tonight, which aligns with leadership indications that he would be back in mid-September. Expect him to share the scraps with Gordon tonight, making both extreme longshots to move the DFS needle.

Derrick Henry gashed Buffalo for 169 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, though the team held firm against New York as Breece Hall managed only 29 yards on 10 carries. So there is some slim hope for Achane to be a slate-smasher.

Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Achane currently has -110 odds on his over 99.5 rushing + receiving yards prop and he is at +102 for an anytime touchdown. Expect Achane to be on just over half of all tournament entries, and the savvy gamer should find appeal in making him a priority to push towards 60% to 70% portfolio representation.

Miami Dolphins Positional Preview

Quarterback | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Tua Tagovailoa has had a rough start to the season, while the Buffalo defense is ceding a league-low 124 yards per game. Yes, those stats are deflated due to keeping Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor in check, but it needs to be pointed out that Lamar Jackson had only 209 yards on 19 attempts in the opener.

Interior defensive lineman Ed Oliver and weakside linebacker Matt Milano are out with injuries, while defensive backs Taron Johnson (quad) and Cam Lewis (shoulder) are questionable after only practicing in a limited fashion on the short week. Perhaps that gives some hope for Tagovailoa, who ranks 18th with a 90.6 passer rating, though he is 31st with a 22.3 QBR, which accounts for more variables.

It is foolish to extrapolate Jackson’s 11.0 yards per attempt and bestow that rate on Tagovailoa, though the NFL DFS stat projections have him for 248.4 yards on 34.1 attempts. That is the third-highest median yardage projection for the week, though the next 11 signal-callers are all within 10 yards of this mark.

Wide Receiver | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

It should be no surprise that Miami is a two-man show, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle being the primary targets in the passing game. Of course, that has not led to particularly gaudy target opportunities yet: Hill has 13 and Waddle 11, ranking second and third on the team.

Hill is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, though there were at least signs of life from the formerly dynamic player, who had a 47-yard reception, clearing the 100-yard threshold for only the fourth time in his last 23 games. Waddle did score his first touchdown of the season, but he still has just 98 yards.

Malik Washington has been dealing with a thumb issue, but he is off the injury report and expected to play tonight. He has seven targets on the season, which is barely ahead of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (five) and Dee Eskridge (three). Though it is unlikely to add to his fantasy score tonight, Washington did have a 74-yard touchdown on his lone opportunity this season, while he and Eskridge are co-kickoff return men.

Getting the ball to Hill, Waddle and Achane will be the passing game priority, which has to lead to some big plays at some point … right?!

Tight End | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Darren Waller (hip) has been ruled out again, and there is a good chance he will not suit up this season after “unretiring” as a potential replacement for Jonnu Smith, whom Miami traded to Pittsburgh. Julian Hill and Tanner Conner are splitting the position, with Hill having not been targeted, while Connor saw four looks in Week 1 but none last Sunday. Keep in mind that Ingold also plays a blocking role that allows McDaniel to have zero-tight end formations.

Kicker | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Riley Patterson is an NFL nomad since signing with Minnesota as an undrafted free agent in 2021. He ended up being hurt and never played for the Vikings or New England, which signed him to the practice squad two months after Minnesota released him. One month later, Detroit signed him off the Patriots practice squad, giving him his first on-field opportunities, including his first field goal conversion against Minnesota.

The meandering really got underway from 2022 forward, with Patterson cycling through Jacksonville (twice), Detroit again, Cleveland (twice), Washington, the New York Jets and Atlanta (twice), bringing us to the 2025 preseason, when Miami signed him to the practice squad. Jason Sanders (hip) will be healthy at some point this season, which means we will probably see Patterson with yet another franchise.

Defense | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

The Miami defense was bad last year and not much has changed this season. Defensive backs Storm Duck and Ifeatu Melifonwu are out, while linebacker Chop Robinson (knee) and defensive tackle Benito Jones (oblique) are questionable.

Buffalo has allowed two sacks this season, with Miami collecting four. Last year the Bills ceded a league-low 14 sacks, while the Dolphins were in the middle of the pack with just over two per tilt. The Bills have suffered a scant eight turnovers in the last 19 regular season games. Outside of a fortuitous splash play, the Dolphins DST is not particularly enticing for DFS purposes.

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources!

• How to Use NFL DFS Sims for Winning Lineups in 2025
• NFL DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims
• Master NFL DFS Sims with This Single Lineup Simulator Strategy
• Stokastic NFL DFS Sims is Better Than Outdated NFL DFS Optimizers
• How to Win with the NFL DFS Entry Manager | NFL DFS Strategy

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3: Josh Allen

We have all seen Allen in countless primetime and playoff games across the last three seasons, and he is clearly one of the best fantasy options in the league. The hope for tonight is that Miami can put points on the board early, giving the Bills a reason to keep pushing things with Allen. Of course, the Buffalo rushing game could also deliver the goods as well, though Allen would be live for red zone rushing scores in those situations. Allen projects to be on 87% of all FanDuel tournament rosters and he is just shy of the 80% mark on DraftKings.

The real question tonight is, how many lineups should a gamer craft where Allen is not in the multiplier slot? Allen is second on the team with 20 carries, 89 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Of course, there is strategy to choosing other Captains and MVPs, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Buffalo Bills Positional Preview

Running Back | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

James Cook negotiated a contract extension, which also limited his preseason participation. That does not appear to have had any impact on his performance, with the fourth-year back toting the rock for 176 yards on 34 carries and leading the league with three rushing scores. This is actually more impressive, considering he played on just 56% (48) of the snaps in Week 1 and 47% (35) four days ago as the Bills waxed the Jets 30-10 at MetLife Stadium.

The two-time Pro Bowler had five targets in the opener, and while he had only one in the second game, the team only had 25 pass attempts. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis are tertiary targets tonight, with Davis likely having the best path to relevance in mop-up duty if the game is out of hand. Johnson is mostly used on passing downs, which could be few and far between in this matchup.

Fullback Reggie Gilliam has had similar snap shares to Johnson and Davis through the first two weeks; however, he rarely gets any touches. In his last 34 regular season games, he had three carries for 7 yards, and he caught his lone target for 3 yards back in the 2023 season. Leave no stone unturned for Showdown!

Wide Receiver | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Sunday saw 11 targets spread out to five different receivers. Week 1 was a far different story with 30 targets distributed evenly at the top: Keon Coleman got 11, and Joshua Palmer and Khalil Shakir each earned nine. Elijah Moore had the other opportunity, matching that in the second game as well.

The team has had plenty of positive comments for Coleman, who had an uneven rookie year. Expectations are that he will be the week-in and week-out leader for opportunities, with game flow dictating the ebb and flow for Palmer and Shakir.

Last year it was Shakir who dominated the targets with 100 of the 495, though that was only a 20.2% share. He still has a strong rapport with Allen, but he is not exactly a game-breaker like Palmer and Coleman.

Palmer never quite broke through on the Chargers, though he was competing with established veterans such as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, or highly drafted players like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. He should be able to take all of the Mack Hollins action from last year and cut into Curtis Samuel as well.

Tyrell Shavers doubled his one target from last year, getting two in the opener, though he didn’t get any looks against the Jets. He is at the $200 minimum on DraftKings, but he only projects for 1.01 fantasy points. His lone target last year went for a 69-yard touchdown, which was nice. Moore signed a one-year, $5 million deal this offseason, though that does not guarantee he continues to play over the second-year UDFA.

Tight End | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox continue to share the tight end snaps but play completely different roles. Knox has been getting most of the base work and, of course, the rushing down looks, with Kincaid floating in and out, depending on how many wideouts are in the formation. Each had a red zone look on Sunday, but they are well down the pecking order, and last year Kincaid had 10 to the seven for Knox.

Fifth-round rookie Jackson Hawes was on the field for 19 and 35 snaps in the first two games, though clearly the lopsided nature of Sunday’s contest is skewing the data. He has not yet been targeted.

Kicker | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Tyler Bass remains on the injured reserve, so it will be 41-year-old Matt Prater handling the place kicker role. He is officially the oldest player to ever take the field for Buffalo, which is a fun tidbit. Prater was the starter in Arizona last year, though he Chad Ryland replaced him after an early-season injury limited Prater to four games. Last season, he made all six of his field goal attempts, including one from 50-plus yards, and he matched that in his first two appearances for the Bills.

Defense | Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3

Tagovailoa has been sacked eight times already this season, and over his last 43 games he has a 5.29% sack rate. The Bills have six sacks, averaging just over two per tilt last year. Miami has three interceptions and one lost fumble, which is shaky at best against Buffalo collecting 34 takeaways in the last 19 regular season games.

NFL DFS Picks for Dolphins-Bills NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 3: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Dolphins-Bills

1. Josh Allen: It isn’t even close.
2. De’Von Achane: Role is impervious to any game situation.
3. James Cook: Still getting by on efficiency; main worry is that the team rolls to a big lead without Cook accounting for any touchdowns.
4. Tua Tagovailoa: Likely will be forced to pass from the jump.
5. Matt Prater: We need projectable salary savers with this top-heavy player pool.
6. Jaylen Waddle: Gets the $1,000 discount and the edge over Hill on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring.
7. Tyreek Hill: $1,400 premium on FanDuel makes it a coinflip with Waddle in the half-PPR scoring format.
8. Riley Patterson: Less trustworthy than Prater; don’t worry about choosing him over the veteran if you don’t quite have enough salary cap to make it work.
9. Joshua Palmer: Edges out Coleman and Shakir for the salary savings.
10. Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir: It really is a tossup for the three main Buffalo wideouts.

Secondary Options

1. Malik Washington: $3,200 on DraftKings has him as a borderline core play; more of a tertiary target on the blue site at $2,800.
2. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox: Knox provides a hefty $3,000 savings on DraftKings and a whopping $4,200 discount on FanDuel.
3. Ray Davis: Could have the second half touches to himself.

Lottery Tickets

1. Buffalo D/ST: Missing some key components, but the #BillsMafia advantage is real.
2. Miami D/ST: Likely will be on the field a lot.
3. Ty Johnson, Elijah Moore and Tyrell Shavers: Each has a legitimate role in the Bills offense; opportunities are a different story. Shavers is DraftKings only, where that $200 salary is workable. Skip him at $1,200 on FanDuel unless building 50-plus lineups.
4. Jackson Hawes, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Ollie Gordon II, Jaylen Wright, Alec Ingold, Dee Eskridge, Tanner Conner and Julian Hill: We may see only one of Gordon or Wright; if that is the case, then they would move ahead of this scrum. Otherwise, everyone else is projected to be active, though collectively splitting just over a dozen offensive opportunities regardless of uniform color.
5. Reggie Gilliam, Curtis Samuel, Jeff Wilson Jr., Dan Marino and Thurman Thomas: Gilliam will be active, but he has only a 10% likelihood of getting an offensive touch tonight.