Underdog Fantasy is offering yet another great free square to get Week 3 entries going. What’s more, most of the top-projected plays in Underdog’s pick’em contest are quarterbacks and also getting close to 60% expected win rates. That makes this one of the most appealing Underdog NFL slates we have had yet. Plus, OddsShopper and Underdog Fantasy are teaming up to offer new users a great promo: You can get your first deposit DOUBLED on Underdog up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Underdog Fantasy’s NFL pick’em contest for Week 3.
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Lamar Jackson H/L 0.5 Total Yards
Underdog is loving these free squares with dual-threat quarterbacks. Thursday’s Daniel Jones play hit (obviously), and now Jackson has the same higher/lower play at 0.5 total yards.
Interestingly enough, the Colts defense has been a pleasant surprise, currently the No. 1 run-stopping unit on PFF. And were this a normal play, perhaps that would have had an impact on Jackson’s ability to hit his over. But this is a free square; Jackson is going to get at least 1 yard of some kind. Stokastic is projecting him for 226.7 yards passing and 54.0 rushing to comfortably clear the 0.5 mark.
Kirk Cousins H/L 25.0 Completions
With both the Vikings and Chargers staring at 0-3 starts to playoff-hopeful seasons, this is a kitchen-sink game. Cousins has already been asked to throw a ton to keep Minnesota competitive — exactly 44 pass attempts in both games — and he completed over 30 in each as well. Now with the Chargers presenting one of the league’s worst pass defenses, coupled with the Vikings rushing attack being virtually non-existent, this sets up for another easy 40-plus dropbacks.
Cousins is completing 72.7% of passes this season. That means that he will complete 29 if he attempts 40, which is 4.5 completions clear of this 25 number. Perhaps this combination of volume and efficiency is unsustainable, but this is not the game that projects to change that course. The matchup is good, the game circumstances line up, and the Cousins-to-Justin Jefferson combo is probably good for at least eight completions on its own.
Cousins is projecting for the most completions and yards passing on the slate — 28.6 and 318.5, respectively — and he has a 61% chance of surpassing 25.0 completions this week.
Deshaun Watson H/L 233.5 Passing Yards
On the polar opposite end of the spectrum, Watson is finding new ways to disappoint Browns fans each game, from turnovers to penalties to general inefficiency. His 66.7% adjusted completion is second-to-last among qualified quarterbacks, leading only Zach Wilson, and though Watson narrowly beat 233.5 yards last week, it took him 40 pass attempts to get there.
The only thing really working in his favor — other than an optimistic view on positive regression — is the injury to Nick Chubb. That takes away Cleveland’s most dynamic playmaker and will probably shift the offensive focus to the passing game a bit. However, the opponent is not a great matchup for Watson given the Titans play at a considerably slower pace and are somewhere in the average to slightly above-average range as a pass defense. He is going to have to drastically up his efficiency to get to 233.5 yards this week, and at this point, it is tough to wager on him getting there.
Stokastic gives Watson a 59% chance of staying below 232.5 yards passing, projecting him for just 215.1 on Sunday.
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