There are just four games in the NHL tonight and all of Philadelphia, Montreal, and Edmonton playing their second game in as many nights. Before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, it’s worth noting there are teams with uncertain lineups, so Stokastic members should check the Discord before lock for new roster information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Connor Bedard (CHI vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,200
After a bit of an ice-time lull that saw Bedard average 18:24 a night from American Thanksgiving until a couple of weeks ago, the rookie is up to 21:20 per night across his last five games. That stretch saw his shots per game rise from 3.3 to 4.4 while reaching the DK shot bonus three times. Ryan Donato being added to his line has been a boon because when Bedard has him as a winger, the team generates nearly 36% more expected goals with Bedard on the ice. There is an even larger rise in goal-scoring rate, so the offense has really come alive with Donato next to the super-rookie.
In yesterday’s column, we discussed how Montreal has struggled defensively with the top line off the ice. That continued last night as second-line center Jake Evans was on the ice for three of the four goals allowed. Bedard is rarely used in a shutdown role so he should get equally good matchups tonight.
The matchup is so good for Bedard that he’s third among all skaters on both sites for fantasy point projections. That means excessively high ownership as he’s first and fifth among all skaters, on DK and FD, respectively, by those projections so while he’s an excellent cash-game option, tournament players have a harder decision to make.
Vincent Trocheck (NYR vs. EDM): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $7,000
In the 20 games since Trocheck was moved to the second line due to injury, he’s managed seven goals, 24 points, and 2.7 shots per game while averaging 21:30 in ice time. His second line has struggled to score at 5-on-5 of late, managing just 1.7 goals per 60 minutes over the last three weeks alone, but they’re still generating a whopping 41.5 shots and 4.1 expected goals/60 in that span. That they’re still creating so much offense is what draws us to Trocheck because sterling offensive numbers like that lead to goals, and often at a very high rate.
The matchup against Edmonton is a good one, too. The Oilers played last night in New Jersey so New York will have the rest advantage. Trocheck’s line doesn’t often match against opposing top lines, and that means facing the Leon Draisaitl-Evander Kane matchup tonight. That duo has been on the ice for over 3.0 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a poor defensive mark, and good news for Trocheck and his line mates.
Among all centers priced $6,000 or less on DK and $7,000 or less on FD, Trocheck leads the fantasy point projection list. He will have heavy ownership on DK (but much lower on FD) so this is another option where tournament players have to decide whether to choke the heavy ownership. He is fine in a line stack and can be used in a power play stack.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Zach Hyman (EDM at NYR): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $9,400
On the other side of the Oilers/Rangers game is Hyman, who was held off the scoresheet last night but landed seven shots on goal and skated over 21 minutes in ice time. In 11 games since American Thanksgiving, Hyman has registered eight goals on 57 shots while largely skating on the top line and top power play unit with Connor McDavid. Yesterday’s column discussed how that line was creating offense commensurate to a low-level power play when on the ice at even strength, and that continued last night by creating 1.6 expected goals in their time together, a rate that would see them over 6.0 expected goals per 60 minutes.
Edmonton being on a back to-back indicates they may be a tired team. By the same token, New York’s top line has allowed over 3.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and that is a defensive number that favors the offensive prowess of Hyman’s top line. A back-to-back is never ideal, but there are only four games, and this is the best offensive line in the league.
Hyman’s high price on both sites leaves his point-per-dollar value much lower than similar winger options, but that is also leading to very low ownership projections on FD, and outside the top-12 wingers by that measure on DK. He can be used as a one-off or part of an Edmonton stack for tournaments.
Travis Konecny (PHI at DET): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $7,400
Philadelphia is another team playing their second game in as many nights but, like New York above, this is not an overly difficult matchup for their situation. Detroit has been middle-of-the-pack by expected goals and actual goals against at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks. Conversely, Konecny’s line has scored 3.2 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in that span, which is a very good offensive number. Individually, Konecny has managed five goals, six assists, and 3.3 shots per game in 13 games over those same four weeks.
The area Philadelphia has really struggled is on the power play, but this is a good night to get their special teams on the board. Detroit gives up the fourth-most power plays per game to the opponent and they have allowed 11 PP goals against in 14 games over the last month. They are also giving up the seventh-most shot attempts against per minute while short-handed in that span, so this is a combination of an undisciplined team and a penalty kill that is well below average of late.
Konecny has a solid point-per-dollar value on DK but his elevated price on FD is pushing the value down on that site. However, Konecny’s ownership projection on DK has him outside the top-8 wingers, so there’s not heavy ownership expected here. He can be used as a one-off, or part of a stack, for tournaments.
Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL at CHI): DraftKings -$3,600 | FanDuel – $3,600
Though the point production hasn’t been stellar this season for the first overall pick from 2022, his ascension to the top line has changed his DFS profile. In the 13 games since his move to the top trio, that unit is creating 36.6 shots and 3.2 expected goals per 60 minutes. Slafkovsky has added three minutes per game to his repertoire and once they start converting more often on their chances – that line is shooting just 4.7% at 5-on-5 in those 13 games – the points will flow. That turn may have started already as Slafkovsky has three points in his last three games, including a pair of points last night.
A road back-to-back is not a great situation for Montreal’s top line, but the matchup against Chicago is. The Blackhawks have given up the second-most expected goals against in the league since American Thanksgiving, with their actual goals against ranking 23rd. That stretch has seen them give up 12 power play goals in 14 games and they remain without top defenseman Seth Jones (among others).
Slafkovsky’s cheap price and good matchup is driving a lot of ownership his way and, on FD in particular, he could be among the highest owned options. He carries a point-per-$1,000 value on both sites over 2.0, however, and that makes him a cash-game option.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Charlie McAvoy (BOS at WPG): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $7,200
If there is an area where Winnipeg struggles, it’s the penalty kill. They have given up the ninth-most goals per game this season while on the PK, and the last four weeks alone have seen them allow the seventh-most shots per minute while short-handed. McAvoy has received over 40% of his point production this season with the man advantage and he has a good chance of adding to that tonight. He isn’t a volume shooter – just under two per game – but is over two blocks per game, reaching the DK block bonus in 9/22 appearances this season.
McAvoy, like Hyman, is a player whose prices far outstrips their projection but it’s also leaving McAvoy with single-digit ownership projections on both sites. There are not many high-priced blue-line options tonight so using Boston’s top defender in tournaments is an option for DFS players to consider.
Connor Murphy (CHI vs. MTL): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $3,800
As alluded to earlier, there are a number of injuries on Chicago’s blue line, including their top rearguard. The injuries have greatly increased Murphy’s ice time as he’s averaged 21:45 per night over his last four games, where he averaged just 19:03 in the 27 games prior. He is a high-end shot blocker even without a lot of ice time, and more ice time has led to 11 blocks in those four games. He is a threat for the DK block bonus every night as long as Chicago’s blue line is missing players, and tonight is no exception. He even catches a Montreal team playing their second road game in as many nights, and the Canadiens’ starting goalie will not be in net for this one.
Among all defensemen priced under $4,000 on DK and FD tonight, Murphy is first and third by point projections, respectively, with his point-per-$1,000 value over 2.0. At low ownership with high value, Murphy is an option for both tournaments and cash games for this four-gamer.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Jeremy Swayman (BOS at WPG): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $8,600
Boston’s defensive struggles will be discussed more below but suffice to say they are not the same juggernaut as they’ve been over the last decade. That is partly why Swayman has faced 69 shots in his last two starts, and seen at least 34 shots in half (7) his starts (14) this year. Our goalie has allowed more than three goals in just two of those 14 starts, and that combination of high shot volume and reasonable goals against has led him to 11 games of at least 16 DK fantasy points out of those 14 starts. He has been excellent this season and facing some more rubber is only helping his DFS value, not hurting it.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Swayman with the lowest projected goals against tonight but the third-most saves. That is the type of shot/goal discrepancy to look for, and it makes him one of the top values on the slate. At a reasonable price on DK, he carries good value there and is also acceptable on FD.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
WPG1: Nikolaj Ehlers – Mark Scheifele – Gabriel Vilardi
Winnipeg’s new top line has been excellent since being assembled by outshooting the opposition 48-22 in their limited time together while outscoring them 9-2. They are riding a hot shooting percentage, but they are also creating an obscene number of shots (47.3/60) and expected goals (4.8/60) so the offensive process has been high-level as well; this isn’t a line finding success solely, or even primarily, because of a high shooting percentages. Boston’s team defense has fallen off a cliff, too, ranking 26th in the league by expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks, worse than teams like Montreal, Columbus, and Anaheim.
On DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this top line third and fourth, respectively, by positive leverage. That means a higher top-2 stack probability than projected ownership, so tournament DFS players will want to look in Winnipeg’s direction for a lower-owned top line.
PHI2: Bobby Brink – Morgan Frost – Owen Tippett
This is a line where checking warmups for the actual combination is paramount. Frost took a big hit last night and left the game. He did return, but with this being the team’s final game before the holiday break – and lines being split late in the game anyway – it is not assured they are together.
If this trio is together in warmups, there are plenty of reasons to use them tonight, even in a back-to-back. They have been good offensively when together this season but have really come alive in December by creating 3.5 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. As mentioned in the section on Konecny, Detroit is not an overly difficult matchup for a road team and this Philadelphia line will avoid any shutdown matchups from the opposition.
Philadelphia’s second line is carrying a bit of negative leverage on both sites, but it’s not extreme, and they’re priced in a range that allows for a high-priced main stack in tournament lineups. Again, be sure to check at warmup, but this line has a good matchup, a low cost, and reasonable ownership for this slate.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
