OwnersBox NFL DFS Strategy: What the Sims Say for Sunday's Main Slate

OwnersBox NFL DFS presents a whole new challenge. Their brand-new site comes with a unique format for NFL DFS: The superflex. OwnersBox allows users to roster quarterbacks in the superflex, supercharging the “stac king d e bate.” There are all kinds of questions regarding how much to stack, if and when to game stack, and how much stacking you should use in your OwnersBox lineup. It’s an unsolved format, but luckily there’s a way to address all these questions. Let’s take a look at Stokastic’s NFL Sims and Contest Generator to see which lineup constructions, stacks and players have the highest ROI for Sunday’s NFL DFS main slate on OwnersBox.

For a comprehensive breakdown of stacking across all DFS platforms, checkout Greg Ehrenberg’s “How to Win a $1 Million in NFL DFS Week 1!”

If you haven’t already signed-up for OwnersBox, now’s the time. The contests are big, there’s overlay and there’s an amazing new offer from Stokastic. Make any initial deposit on OwnersBox through Stokastic and you’ll get a free month of NFL Sims Max! We also know of an industry-leading spot if you’re also looking for the best NFL DFS Projections.

OwnersBox NFL DFS Strategy | Week 1 Superflex Picks

Utilizing the Superflex Optimally

In DFS, there’s always an “it depends” answer to every question. That may be a strange way to start, but it’s important to realize that the answer to how to best use the superflex will depend on the slate, the contests we’re playing and the salaries. That said, we can use the Sunday NFL DFS Slate as a pretty good proxy to get at an answer. Things will change depending on future circumstances, but we can form some basic heuristics by simulating out this Week 1 slate.

The first step toward understanding how to use the superflex — or in other words, how to optimally construct lineups on OwnersBox — is to generate a large pool and plug them into Stokastic’s NFL Sims Tool. This is an area where it can be tempting to impose your own “takes.” Stokastic’s Contest Generator allows you to choose how many QB+1 stacks you want in your pool, QB+2 and QB+3. There’s good reason to play around with those numbers when you’re playing on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.

The way the field plays on those sites is relatively well understood, and you can have your own preferences, expectations for the field and so on. But for the purposes of research on an unknown site, and with an unsolved format, the best bet is to leave the build as is. Running 10,000 lineups in the tool spits out 82.9% QB+1s, 26.8% QB+2, 2.9% QB+3 and 15.2% unstacked lineups. It’s not going on a limb to presume that those 15% of unstacked lineups are paying the rake in mid- to large-field GPPs.

That’s what we want, and we can leave this representation the way it was let the 10,000 lineups compete against each other to see what the best builds are and best uses of the superflex based on their ROI.

Here’s how the top-150 lineups by ROI in the pool broke down:

14/150 QB+3
59/150 QB+2
77/150 QB+1
0/150 Unstacked.

The bottom number is probably the most important. You should be stacking; there’s no excuse not to. Not to mention, the top-150 ROI lineups in my simulation all had quarterbacks in the superflex!

Another question that people have been asking about OwnersBox is, “Should I game stack?” With the superflex, OwnersBox gives you the ability to roster two opposing quarterbacks and their pass catchers to capture the correlation and upside if a game shoots out. That might be a viable strategy, but not so much on Sunday’s OwnersBox NFL DFS main slate. The data indicates that game stacking just isn’t worth it given the projections, ownership and salaries. In the top 150 highest-ROI lineups, only three had game stacks. Those were all Chargers-Dolphins stacks. It makes sense since that game has the highest total for the week.

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OK, So What Are the Best Stacks and Plays This Week?

Macro-strategy is important, but let’s dig into some specific player and stack ROI numbers for Week 1 on OwnersBox.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense

Joe Burrow and the Bengals check in as the highest-ROI stack on the slate, being the most frequent in the top 150 lineups. The Bengals stack size was consistently represented in the lineup set, with 8% being Burrow and three pass catchers, 18% with Burrow and two pass catchers and 9% of lineups having a Burrow plus one pass catcher.

Here’s the catch: Bengals stacks aren’t jamming Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The two starting wideouts on the Bengals are high-priced and are expected to grab a lot of ownership. The two highest-ROI players on the Bengals that are popping up in stacks are Tyler Boyd and Irv Smith Jr. Boyd had a 20.7% simulated ROI in the build, which made him the second-highest individual player on the slate. You can be certain that much of his upside comes when he’s paired with Burrow. Smith’s individual ROI was right below him at 17.7%. These two make strong complements to Bengals stacks and are a good way to tap into the team’s potential without using highly owned stack combinations.

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs came in as the highest-ROI running back in the Sims. The Raiders stack isn’t looking particularly strong headed into Denver to play the Broncos in Week 1. However, one-off Jacobs plays popped up in 35% of my lineups due to his price and upside. Jacobs is expected to be 24% owned, which is a healthy sum, but he is the second-best value play at the running back position in Stokastic’s OwnersBox NFL DFS projections.

Jacobs could be chalk worth eating, especially in unique lineup constructions with the low-owned stacks. One way to make that happen is to sprinkle in some Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, who aren’t getting much love this week. Stokastic’s NFL Sims Tool certainly likes that strategy. Broncos stacks are appearing in just under 11% of the top 150 sim ROI lineups that were generated, all of those using Jacobs for runback correlation.

There’s so much more to be learned from the NFL Sims and Contest Generator, especially for a brand-new site and format like OwnersBox. You can grab a free monthly subscription to Stokastic’s NFL Sims Max when you deposit on OwnersBox before NFL Week 1. The deal drops down to just one week after the start of the season, so hurry up and grab the value while it’s still on the board!

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