Dick Mountain is back. Somehow, at 45 years old, Rich Hill is starting tonight against the Cubs. But spoiler alert: He won’t be in our DraftKings MLB DFS lineup. We’re about to build a tournament-winning MLB DFS entry from scratch. We will lock in two pitchers, one stack, and run the build through Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims and Top Stacks to find the most +EV plays for your DraftKings MLB DFS entries. If you’re chasing the perfect DraftKings lineup tonight, this is where the real edge begins.
Perfect DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup: Optimal Strategy
Top Pitchers for Your DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup
Tonight’s slate is top heavy with elite arms, and the bottom of the pitching pool is downright ugly. That makes this a classic “double pay-up at pitcher” kind of night.
Top Pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Twins
Yamamoto brings everything you want in a high-priced DFS pitcher: strikeout potential, run prevention and volume.
- Moneyline: Dodgers -230 favorites
- Strikeout Prop: 6.5 (juiced to the over)
- Outs Prop: Over 17.5
- Strikeout Rates: 26%-plus to both sides of the plate, nearly 30% to lefties
- Ground Ball Rate: Seventh-best among qualified starters
With the Twins carrying one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate, Yamamoto is a rock-solid SP1 who gives you both floor and ceiling.
SP2: Logan Gilbert vs. Brewers
T-Mobile Park is one of the best pitcher environments in baseball, and Gilbert knows how to exploit it.
- Home Strikeout Rate: 39%
- WHIP at Home: 0.71
- xFIP at Home: 1.80
- 2023 Comparison: Over 30% strikeout rate in the same park across 100-plus innings
Milwaukee doesn’t strike out a ton, but it doesn’t hit for power either. It is bottom 7 in both wOBA and wRC+ against righties and ranks second worst in ISO. Add it all up, and Gilbert makes for a perfect SP2 tonight.
Top DraftKings MLB DFS Stack: Astros
You’ll see a ton of ownership flooding to Coors Field bats, but the Astros might be the sneakiest +EV play on the board.
At first glance, Houston only ranks tied for eighth in top stack percentage. But once price is factored in, it becomes the No. 1 value stack and jumps to No. 2 overall in stack score, which balances projection and salary.
Why Houston is the Perfect DFS Stack Tonight:
- Elite Value: Best salary-adjusted stack score on the slate
- Low Cost Bats:
- Jose Altuve – $4,300
- Christian Walker – $3,200
- Yainer Diaz – $3,300
- Cam Smith – $3,700
- Chas McCormick – $2,300
- Power vs. LHP: Second in ISO against left-handed pitching (.216), just 1 point behind the Yankees
- Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez is getting shelled this season
- 244 xISO vs. lefties
- .178 xISO vs. righties
- Sub-20% strikeout rate to lefties
- 15% HR/FB rate
Filling Out the Rest: Use Sims for the Optimal Finish
With Yamamoto and Gilbert locked in as high-end arms and a value stack in Houston, there’s still plenty of salary left to fill out the rest of your DraftKings MLB DFS lineup. After running this core through the Single Lineup Simulator, here’s what came out:
This build allows for plenty of creativity, whether you want to extend the Astros stack to four bats or fit in another high-leverage mini-stack with Cardinals exposure at Coors.
