If you’re looking to craft a perfect DraftKings MLB DFS lineup for tonight’s 13-game slate, we have you covered with a high-upside strategy that leans on simulation insights, salary flexibility and sharp matchup exploitation. Let’s break down tonight’s build with a duo of affordable pitchers, a power-hungry stack in a hitter-friendly park and the tools to simulate your way to the top.
Perfect DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup: Optimal Strategy
Top Pitchers for Your DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup
While there are certainly some ace-caliber options on the board tonight, this doesn’t feel like a slate where you need to pay up at pitcher, especially when the value arms are in great matchups and allow for much more lineup flexibility.
Top Pitcher: Dean Kremer vs. Rockies
Kremer might not scream “DFS ace,” but against this version of the Colorado Rockies, he doesn’t need to. The Rockies have the highest strikeout rate in the league on the road (28%), the worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and rank near dead last in most advanced offensive metrics away from home.
Kremer himself has been solid over his last 10 starts, averaging six innings per outing with a 2.91 FIP and a strong 11% swinging-strike rate. His strikeout prop (5.5) is juiced to the over, and he’s lined at 18.5 outs. Add in that this game is being played in pitcher-friendly Camden Yards, and Kremer is a great way to start your DraftKings MLB DFS lineup tonight.
SP2: Zebby Matthews vs. Nationals
Matthews comes with risk, sure. He hasn’t shown shutdown ability in the majors (his ERA is north of 6.00), but the underlying numbers tell a different story. He’s sporting a 3.27 FIP and a near-30% strikeout rate, suggesting there’s major potential here if the luck turns around. His inflated BABIP (.410) and low strand rate (64%) also point to some regression in his favor.
Washington has a subpar offense and a modest implied team total. Matthews’ strikeout prop sits at 4.5 (juiced over), and his 15.5 outs prop makes him a very viable SP2 at just $7,100. Pairing him with Kremer allows us to build a perfect DraftKings lineup that’s stacked with high-upside hitters.
Top DraftKings MLB DFS Stack: Rays
With salary saved on pitching, we’re going big on bats, and there’s no better target tonight than the Tampa Bay Rays, who get a massive park upgrade and a favorable matchup against Nick Martinez in Cincinnati.
Ballpark Boost:
Great American Ballpark is one of the best home run environments in baseball: A 117 overall HR park factor, with an absurd 136 HR factor to right-handed hitters. That bodes well for the Rays’ righty-heavy lineup.
Pitching Matchup:
Martinez is not a strikeout threat. He has a sub-10% swinging strike rate, a 13% strikeout rate to righties, and his expected metrics are middling across the board. While he’s not a gas can, he’s not missing bats either, which opens the door for solid contact and run production.
Target Bats:
- Yandy Diaz or Jonathan Aranda (1B) — Can’t play both, so pick based on lineup order.
- Junior Caminero (3B) — A key power bat.
- Josh Lowe (OF) — Strong lefty option with power/speed upside.
- Danny Jansen (C) — Value behind the plate.
- Chandler Simpson (OF) — Crazy speed.
While the Rays aren’t the highest-rated stack in terms of pure value, they are top 4 in stack probability and have enough ceiling to be the anchor of a DraftKings MLB DFS GPP-winning lineup.
Filling Out the Rest: Use Sims for the Optimal Finish
Once our pitchers and stack are locked in, it’s time to fill the gaps and make sure this MLB DFS lineup is profitable. We turn to the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator, to round out the roster and test its viability.
That’s a very live single-entry tournament lineup.
