The PGA Tour rolls on to the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, celebrating its 25th year hosting this event. As usual, many of the top golfers are taking the week off to gear up for the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, leaving behind one of the weakest fields of the season. Like last week in Detroit, we should expect another birdie fest, with scoring conditions that will allow plenty of opportunities to go low. Let’s dive into my PGA DFS picks and core plays for the John Deere Classic.
Course Preview
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 measuring just under 7,300 yards, with wide fairways bordered by trees, thick rough, and some challenging elevation changes.
Length off the tee won’t be as critical as finding fairways and hitting precise wedges and short irons. I’m giving weight to players who excel in Birdie or Better Percentage, Strokes Gained: Total and Approach, Ball Striking, Good Drives Percentage, while also showing a solid short game and avoiding three-putts. In a setup favoring aggressive, accurate play, hot irons and a steady putter could be the winning combination.
I ran the numbers through Stokastic’s PGA Sims Tool, which simulates each hole and builds thousands of lineups based on our custom projections. The tool identifies which golfers appear most frequently in top-performing builds, helping surface both reliable core options and under-the-radar value. If you’re looking to create sharp, +EV DFS lineups, this is one of the most powerful edges available.
Let’s dive into my John Deere Classic picks that I’ll be building lineups around this week on DraftKings.
PGA DFS Picks: John Deere Classic DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks: John Deere Classic DFS Picks & Core Plays: Jason Day – $10,500
The Australian has quietly put together a strong season, showing steady progress along the way.
He skipped last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic but finished T-4 the week prior at the Travelers Championship and owns three other top-10 finishes this year.
Day comes into another scorable layout with both momentum and rest, backed by a well-rounded skill set. Over his past 40 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total among this field, along with 27th in SG: Approach and 31st in SG: Putting.
Our PGA Sims are landing on Day in 32.3% of top lineups – the highest exposure of any golfer this week and about 17% more than the field’s projected ownership.
He profiles as a core, chalky play across builds for this tournament.
Michael Thorbjornsen – $9,100
If there’s an area where Thorbjornsen can truly separate himself, it’s off the tee. Over his last 40 rounds, he ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, thanks to a strong mix of distance and accuracy.
Looking at his season-long numbers, he sits 3rd in Ball Striking, 9th in Birdie or Better Percentage, and 14th in Good Drives Gained.
While our Sims show only about a 2% leverage on him, he’s still appearing in 16% of our top lineups this week.
PGA DFS Picks; John Deere Classic DFS Picks & Core Plays: Nicolas Echavarria – $7,800
Echavarria cracks my core plays yet again – at this point, he might be my most frequent flyer.
There’s good reason for it. He’s been lights-out with the putter, ranking 8th in SG: Putting, which helped him to a T-6 finish last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Beyond that, he ranks 30th in SG: Approach, 37th in SG: Total, and 36th in Birdie or Better Percentage. He can also find the fairway when needed, sitting 45th in Good Drive Percentage this season.
At just $7,800, we’re seeing 14% exposure on him – about 4% greater than the field – so sign me up for another rendezvous with Echavarria.
GPP Flier: Rico Hoey – $7,300
Rico Hoey is a name I can’t neglect for this tournament. When you look at where he stacks up in a few crucial stats this week, it shouldn’t shock anyone if he’s a contender.
On Tour this season, Hoey ranks 1st in Ball Striking, 3rd in Good Drive Percentage, and 46th in Birdie or Better Percentage. He did miss the cut last week at a comparable venue, which is a bit concerning; however, our PGA Sims are still getting to him in around 7% of builds — for a player at this price, that ain’t too shabby.
Let’s see if Hoey can bounce back and make some noise this weekend.
