The NFL keeps on rolling with a small Week 7 slate this weekend. Six teams are on a bye, which means the pickings are extra slim. With several big names like Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy playing on primetime cards, the quarterback options are few and far between. Let’s dive into the top NFL DFS quarterback picks and fades for Week 7. Our NFL DFS projections are especially high on Baker Mayfield, but they’re low on Justin Herbert at this week’s price point.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks & Fades for Week 7: Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert & More
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks for Week 7 | DraftKings & FanDuel
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Price: $5,300 at DraftKings; $6,600 at FanDuel
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Atlanta Falcons this weekend, and our NFL DFS projections are high on Baker Mayfield and company. The Buccaneers entered Week 7 with the 10th-ranked passing offense by expected points added (EPA) per dropback. The Falcons’ passing defense entered the week ranked 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Mayfield has looked good in his first season with the Buccaneers. He is averaging 217.6 passing yards, 1.4 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions per game. Those aren’t All-Pro numbers, but they’ve been good enough to get the Buccaneers to 3-2. Mayfield struggled against the Lions last week, but our projections have him bouncing back against the Falcons.
The journeyman quarterback is projected for 17.9 points at DraftKings, good for 3.4x value, and 17.3 points at FanDuel, good for 2.6x value. Those estimates make him one of the highest-value quarterbacks on the slate at his price point. Consider stacking him with wide receiver Chris Godwin.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Price: $6,000 at DraftKings; $7,000 at FanDuel
Another high-value option for the Week 7 slate, Geno Smith will take on the Arizona Cardinals this week. Although the Cardinals surprised many by playing their first few games close this season, the wheels have started to come off, especially now that running back James Conner is on injured reserve.
The Cardinals field the 28th-ranked passing defense by EPA allowed per dropback. Smith ranks 12th among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, and he is projected to return 3.1x value at DraftKings and 2.6x value at FanDuel. To see how your top quarterback stacks up, check out our NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Quarterback Fades for Week 7 | DraftKings & FanDuel
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Price: $8,000 at DraftKings; $8,300 at FanDuel
Although plenty of DFS players will get exposure to Sunday’s Chargers-Chiefs game, it’s unwise to put too many of your eggs in the Justin Herbert basket. He is one of the most expensive quarterbacks on the slate and will struggle to return value. Herbert isn’t a bad quarterback — he ranks sixth in EPA per dropback — but $8,000-plus is just too much to pay for him this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs are playing a slow-paced, complementary brand of football, and they have been decent at stopping the pass, too. Kansas City ranks 22nd in seconds per play (29.2) and third in EPA allowed per dropback. They have coughed up just 84.9 total DraftKings points to quarterbacks across six games. That’s only 14.2 per game!
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Price: $5,200 at DraftKings; $6,900 at FanDuel
Although I was able to sing Herbert’s praises while recommending you fade him, I can’t do the same for Desmond Ridder. Ridder ranks a dreadful 29th in EPA per dropback. Ridder is averaging 230 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception per game this year. Those aren’t awful numbers, but our NFL DFS projections think you can do much better at the position this week, especially on FanDuel.
Ridder comes in at $6,900 on FanDuel, which is more than better options like Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford. Ridder is projected to return just 1.8x value at that site. He should return 2.3x value at DraftKings, which, while a more favorable projection, is still worse than almost every other quarterback on the slate.
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