Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 13 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Stokastic’s NFL DFS stacks data is a great way to quickly discern which teams we should be targeting with stacks for our daily fantasy football lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. On the tool, we get access to countless data points that can help us make more informed NFL DFS lineup decisions for the main Sunday slate. Let’s get to it!

NFL DFS Week 13 Team Stackability Ratings on DraftKings & FanDuel

Below is an overview of the top stacks tool and the various data points referenced throughout the article.

Top Stack: The probability that the QB + receiver combo will be the highest scoring of the week (averaged the probabilities for top-scoring with one receiver and two receivers together).

QB Own: Ownership projection of the starting quarterback for the given team.

Avg Sal: Average salary of skill position players weighted for ownership projections.

Top Value: Top stack % points per dollar of salary spent.

Rush %: How often the team is expected to rush on any given play during the game. A lower Rush % means the quarterback will be throwing more often!

Overall Rating: Stokastic’s rating of the quality of the stack, taking into consideration key variables like top stack probability, top value probability, and ownership projections.

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Week 13 NFL DFS Top Team Stack: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are far and away the highest-rated team in Stokastic’s top stacks tool for Sunday’s road game against the Commanders. Miami has the week’s highest implied total at 30 points and is favored by 9.5 this weekend.

As of now, the Week 13 team stacks page has the Dolphins first in overall rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel and they have the highest top stack probability and top value probability on DraftKings and the second-highest top stack probability and highest top value probability on FanDuel. On DraftKings in particular Miami is rating out extremely well in stackability with one of the highest top stack probabilities (25.5%) we’ve seen all season. To put that into perspective, no other team is higher than 12% for the Week 13 main slate.

To help figure out which Dolphins may be set up for the most success for NFL DFS purposes, we can turn to the boom/bust data at Stokastic.

Tyreek Hill, as usual, has a high boom probability up at 18.3% on DraftKings and 17.9% on FanDuel, and he leads Miami in that regard. Jaylen Waddle is at an 8.9% boom mark at $7,600 on DraftKings, with Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) at 5.5%. Hill has an optimal lineup rate of 22.1% at time of writing, while Waddle is at 12.2% and Tagovailoa at 10.5%. Elsewhere, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are currently projected for 11.0 and 10.1 fantasy points respectively.

Top Stack Probability on DraftKings: 25.5%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel: 13.9%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: 12.5%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: 12.2%
Expected Rush Percentage: 38.1%

Week 13 NFL DFS Top Team Stack: Houston Texans

Fresh off a 24-21 loss at home to the Jaguars, the Texans will aim to get back on track at home against the Broncos. Houston is a 3.5-point favorite and implied for right around 25 points, which is tied for the second-most on the slate alongside the Lions and 49ers.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans are third in overall team stackability rating on DraftKings (below the Dolphins and Colts) and also have the third-highest top stack probability and top value probability. On FanDuel they’re projecting even better, with a top stack probability of 17.6% (highest on that site) and a top value probability of 11.9% (second highest) for Sunday.

Let’s take a closer look at Stokastic’s boom and bust probability tool for Houston’s player-level insights ahead of Week 13. Tank Dell has the highest boom probability on DraftKings at 4.9% and is closely followed by Nico Collins, Stroud and Noah Brown. Dalton Schultz has been ruled out and there are other question marks on the injury report (Dell and Brown Q), so we’ll obviously have to check on those player statuses closer to lineup lock. In the Texans backfield, Devin Singletary ($5,900) and Dameon Pierce ($5,100) both have lower boom probabilities for this matchup at time of writing.

The Texans’ team prop page at OddsShopper is another resource we can check to see how oddsmakers view this matchup. We see Stroud has a passing yards prop ranging from 261.5 to 263.5 and he’s at -135 to throw for at least two touchdowns. Dell has a receiving yards prop of 61.5 and Collins’ line is at 58.5 yards up against the Broncos.

Top Stack Probability on DraftKings: 10.9%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel: 17.6%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: 7.7%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: 11.9%
Expected Rush Percentage: 41.0%

Other Week 13 NFL DFS Team Stacks to Consider

The top stack probabilities and overall ratings are great by themselves, but having additional data points like projected QB ownership, top value probabilities and expected rush percentages for every team all on one page is extremely handy when doing NFL DFS prep.

Using the top stacks tool as our guide, here are more team stacks to consider for your DraftKings and FanDuel Week 13 daily fantasy football lineups.

Philadelphia Eagles

This should be one heck of a game between two Super Bowl contenders, with current NFL odds favoring San Francisco over Philadelphia despite being the road team. The 49ers are implied for 25 points and the Eagles are at approximately 22, and depending on the DFS site you look at, both teams are near the top of the Stokastic top stacks tool for Week 13 NFL DFS.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles take a five-game winning run into Sunday’s meeting — they just survived a thrilling 37-34 home win over Josh Allen and the Bills and now have to try to get the better of another powerhouse team in Week 13.

When we look through the boom and bust NFL DFS data, A.J. Brown has the Eagles’ highest boom probability at 6.9% on DraftKings and 10.6% on FanDuel, while Hurts, DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift are all at 3% or below in boom probability on DraftKings.

Philadelphia’s team prop page at OddsShopper has Hurts with a passing yards prop of 243.5 yards and a rushing yards prop of 40.5. Brown is carrying a receiving yards prop of 73.5, with Smith at a 60.5 receiving yards prop and Swift at a 73.5 combined rushing and receiving yards number. It should be noted Dallas Goedert returned to practice Friday but is still considered doubtful to play this weekend.

Top Stack Probability on DraftKings: 11.7%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel: 8.4%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: 6.4%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: 7.3%
Expected Rush Percentage: 44.9%

San Francisco 49ers

On the other side of this game, the 49ers are also hovering around the summit of the top DFS stacks tool for Sunday.

Kyle Shananan’s crew is fourth in overall rating and also has the fourth-best top stack probability and top value probability on DraftKings. Shifting to FanDuel, Brock Purdy and company are quite a bit further down the list in overall rating, but the team’s 8.6% top stack probability ranks third behind only the Dolphins and Texans for this coming Sunday.

As is the case whenever he’s on the main slate, Christian McCaffrey is sporting an extremely high boom probability of 17.8% at $9,000 on DraftKings and 17.9% at a $9,800 salary on FanDuel. He’s showing in the optimal lineup 22.4% of the time based on Stokastic’s simulations, and on FanDuel that number drops to 17.0%. Brandon Aiyuk is in the second spot with a 7.6% boom probability on DraftKings, with Purdy at 3.8%, George Kittle at 3.2% and Deebo Samuel at 2.7%.

The 49ers enter Sunday on a three-game winning streak and are now 8-3 on the season, and it’ll be fascinating to see if they can maintain their recent offensive efficiency and bring the NFL DFS stacking goods in what’s sure to be a hostile environment.

Top Stack Probability on DraftKings: 7.3%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel: 8.6%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: 7.1%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: 5.3%
Expected Rush Percentage: 52.4%

There are plenty of other team stacks we can add to the list of targets as we prep our teams for Week 13 NFL DFS.

The Lions and Colts are also projecting well in terms of team stackability, among others. We recommend you go through all of the stacks data for the main slate to see what edges you can find.

Latest NFL DFS Content

These numbers could change as more news is released and we get closer to kickoff. Stokastic will be tracking all slate-relevant injury updates and will be tweaking NFL player projections all the way up until lock on DraftKings and FanDuel.

DFS players should be vigilant about watching for player news and updated player projections/data after initial lock, in case there are better values and stacks to late swap into before the afternoon games kick off.

We should also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and that other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.

Stokastic Week 13 NFL DFS Tools 🏈

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Author

Scott Krones

Scott is a writer and editor at Stokastic and OddsShopper with a passion for DFS and sports betting. His previous stops include Better Collective, RotoGrinders and RotoWire, and his favorite team is Liverpool.