In this weekly preview, we dive into the Stokastic NFL DFS data to see which NFL DFS wide receivers, picks and fades we should be considering as we finalize our DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for Week 12.
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks & Fades for Week 12
We have a smaller main slate on our hands due to the holidays, making it that much more important to get our high-upside wide receiver DFS picks right.
Stokastic’s Week 12 NFL player projections are live, so let’s see what the data is showing at various price ranges ahead of kickoff this Sunday.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
If we check out Stokastic’s boom and bust probabilities for the Week 12 NFL DFS main slate, Cooper Kupp is number one in boom rating among all positions on DraftKings at 19.0% for a favorable road matchup against the Cardinals (22.9% optimal lineup rate). He’s the top wideout in boom probability on FanDuel as well at 21.0% and his optimal rate over there is 31.3%.
Injuries, both to himself and starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, have gotten in the way of a typically dominant season from Kupp. He’s been virtually non-existent in recent weeks too, having failed to top 48 receiving yards in any of his last four games, and he hasn’t reached pay dirt since Week 6’s win over this same Arizona team. In that matchup, he went off for seven catches on nine targets for 148 yards and a score.
Still, projections data shows Kupp has a great chance of bouncing back in Week 12 at his $8,000 salary on both sites, and we know what kind of upside he brings to the table for DFS in general. On his OddsShopper props page, he has a receiving yards line of roughly 70.5 yards, and his anytime touchdown odds are +150 against the Cardinals.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Another wide receiver standing out in NFL DFS projections for Week 12 is Chris Olave, who could be called upon for an even larger opportunity share with fellow receiver Michael Thomas hitting the IR. Olave and the Saints will take on the Falcons in Atlanta on Sunday, with the road team implied for 22 points and favored by one.
Priced at $6,600 on DraftKings, Olave owns a 6.1% boom probability and has an optimal lineup rate of 9.00%. As of now, his ownership projection is 8.3%, giving him a positive leverage mark of 0.7%. On FanDuel, Olave is $7,300 and has a boom rating of 5.1% along with a slightly higher optimal lineup rate of 12.2%. He has a positive leverage of 2.7% at time of writing.
The OddsShopper prop pages for Olave have his receiving yards prop in a wide range from 67.5 yards all the way up to 71.5 yards at some NFL betting sites. The Ohio State product is +225 to score a touchdown at any point in the matchup.
There are plenty of other wide receivers projecting favorably for Week 12 NFL DFS, including A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin and Christian Kirk among others.
Make sure to look through all of the WR data to see what else stands out in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel Wide Receivers
Boom and bust probabilities measure how likely players are to meet their respective ceilings and floors relative to their median projections.
For Week 12, let’s find out who may be sitting near the bottom of the pack as far as NFL DFS value goes.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
It’s been quite a run of games for Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton and the Broncos, who have reeled off four straight wins to move to 5-5 on the season. Sutton has been a huge part of the success and enters Sunday’s meeting with the Browns having scored a touchdown in five straight games.
For Week 12, however, Sutton is not grading out too well in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections. He has a 50.6% bust probability and is showing in 3.8% of optimal lineups at his $5,400 price point on DraftKings, with the Broncos implied for approximately 19 points against a sound Browns defense. Denver’s number one receiver is $6,700 on FanDuel and carries a 52.3% bust probability and 2.4% optimal lineup rate into Week 12.
Curious to know what the NFL player prop odds are looking like for Sutton ahead of this Sunday? As of now his receiving yards prop is at right around 44.5 yards and his anytime touchdown odds are at +270 versus Cleveland, so oddsmakers aren’t really loving his chances of going off for a ceiling performance either.
As a reminder, Stokastic will continue to finetune projections all the way up until lineups lock as more news comes in on player statuses.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
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