UFC 298 DFS Picks: Mackenzie Dern’s Submission Potential Worth a Play

It’s time to continue our UFC DFS series with our UFC 298 DFS picks, in which we find the best value and plays. Mackenzie Dern is just one of the fighters we’re targeting on Saturday night. Let’s see who else stands out on the card.

Looking for more UFC 298 DFCS picks or value plays? Stokastic has MMA projections, UFC ownership, and UFC top fighters data!

UFC 298 DFS Picks

EDITOR’S NOTE: de Lima vs Tafa has since been cancelled.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

The upcoming UFC 298 event features a notable matchup between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Justin Tafa. Despite losing his last fight to Derrick Lewis via TKO at UFC 291 in July 2023, de Lima had a two-fight winning streak prior to that.

Conversely, Justin Tafa is coming into this fight on a three-win streak against Austen Lane, Parker Porter, and Harry Hunsicker, who might not be seen as top-tier opponents.

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Looking at betting odds and predictions, de Lima is considered to have the third-best odds of ending the fight early. Coupled with his projected 8th highest ownership, he presents good value at $8500 on DraftKings. The fight is predicted to be highly aggressive, with both fighters holding similar odds of around +150 to win by Knock Out.

Nonetheless, de Lima appears to have a slightly higher likelihood of winning through submission, showcasing his versatile combat skills. Given the high probability of a first-round finish, de Lima’s price, and ownership mix, he is generally viewed as the best bet on DraftKings.

Zhang Mingyang 

The UFC 298 prelims features a big Light Heavyweight fight between Zhang Mingyang and Brendson Ribeiro. Both have been winning a lot lately.

Mingyang has won nine fights in a row. His last win was a technical knockout (TKO) against George Tokkos in June 2022. Ribeiro has won three times in a row. His last win was also a TKO, against Bruno Lopes in September 2023.

People expect a tough fight. The odds suggest it’s likely to end quickly, with Zhang slightly favored to win by TKO. But Ribeiro is close behind in the odds.

The fighters’ strong styles and punching power make this match similar to the de Lima vs. Tafa fight. This means there’s a good chance it could end early, making it a very important fight.

For those betting, even though Mingyang is the favorite, it’s good to consider both fighters because of the likelihood of an early finish. This fight could score high on DraftKings and is expected to be a key fight in the event.

Mackenzie Dern

UFC 298 is set to have a featured prelim between Amanda Lemos and Mackenzie Dern. Both fighters are coming off losses and are eager to turn the tides.

Amanda Lemos, known for her striking skills, suffered a unanimous decision loss to Zhang Weili, the Strawweight champion, in her last fight. Despite this, she had an impressive past record, with 7 wins in her previous 8 fights. If Lemos wins the upcoming fight, it will likely be by striking, as her submission skills aren’t as noteworthy.

Mackenzie Dern, on the other hand, also lost her last fight against Jessica Andrade. Her recent performance has been inconsistent, but she’s still one of the most respected female grapplers in the sport. She has a host of gold medals in submission grappling and jiu-jitsu from the mid-2010s.

This fight will be a test of each fighter’s strengths. Dern’s best shot at an early victory lies in her grappling skills. With her projected contest ownership on DraftKings and her price tag, she stands a good chance of finishing the fight with a submission. This could also earn her points for takedowns and ground control time.

Lemos could also win with strikes, but her chances are lower than Dern’s. The match could go either way, and it’s all about whether Lemos’s strikes or Dern’s grappling will prevail. For me, the most likely outcome is Dern winning with a submission.

If you’re looking for more ways to increase your profits, check out our UFC Sims — the most profitable option on the market. 

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Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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