UFC 318 is headlined by an emotional and potentially final bout for Dustin Poirier, who squares off with Max Holloway for the BMF belt. While it’s a top-heavy card for name value, there’s still plenty of DFS upside for DraftKings lineups. With the help of Stokastic’s MMA DFS tools and Single Lineup Simulator, we’ve identified the most optimal UFC DFS picks for Saturday’s slate. If you’re looking to dominate your UFC DFS contests, here’s your game plan.
UFC DFS Picks: UFC 318 Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Main Event Must-Have: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
The BMF title fight is more than just a basic narrative. Both Holloway and Poirier are high-volume strikers with cardio to push five rounds at breakneck pace:
- Max Holloway: 7.16 significant strikes landed per minute
- Dustin Poirier: 5.3 significant strikes landed per minute, plus sneaky wrestling upside
The fight is a near coinflip, but the betting market slightly favors Holloway (-140). Because of this, Holloway will likely be the higher-owned fighter, presenting an opportunity to pivot to Poirier for leverage in large-field GPPs.
Recommendation:
- Lock in one of these two in every single lineup
- Slight edge to Poirier as the lower-owned contrarian option with submission and takedown equity
Best High-Priced Play: Kevin Holland ($9,300)
Kevin Holland is one of five fighters priced in the $9,000 range with -600 odds or better, but he separates himself with elite upside:
- Top-6 Score Probability: Second highest on the slate
- Inside Distance Win Odds: Just over 50%
- Matchup: Faces Daniel Rodriguez in a striker vs. striker matchup, with Holland having the better defense and grappling fallback
Rodriguez absorbs over eight significant strikes per minute, making him a DFS target. Meanwhile, Holland can win by out-striking or tapping him out; both are live paths.
Ownership Alert:
Despite all this, Holland is projected for just around 20% ownership. That’s a steal for a fighter with elite finishing equity and multi-dimensional scoring paths.
Best Value Play: Paulo Costa ($7,800)
If you’re hunting for a viable pay-down option, Paulo Costa is your guy. The public may be sleeping on him due to recent losses, but context matters:
- Costa’s recent opponents: Robert Whittaker, Sean Strickland, which is elite-level competition
- Now faces Roman Kopylov, whose level of competition is far lower
- Lands 6.0+ significant strikes per minute; his wins tend to come with DFS-friendly volume
Despite being an underdog, Costa has the clearest value path of any sub-$8,000 fighter on the slate, and if he pulls the upset, he likely will smash salary-based expectations.
Building the Optimal Lineup
Using Stokastic’s Single Lineup Simulator, here’s a high-upside lineup built around the fighters mentioned above:
With balanced ownership and finishing equity across the board, this build reflects a perfect mix of chalk, leverage, and upside.
