The 5-6 Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals will visit the 8-3 Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. The Bengals are coming off back-to-back division losses to the Browns and Steelers and are grateful to be playing someone not in the AFC North, against whom they are 0-4. Meanwhile, the Jags lead the AFC South and are looking for their third straight victory in a game where they are 10-point home favorites. Let’s get to the Underdog Fantasy NFL picks, starting with Trevor Lawrence.
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Underdog NFL Fantasy Pick’em Predictions (December 4)
Trevor Lawrence H/L 14.5 Rushing Yards
Unfortunately, if you’re a new user, you can’t double down on Trevor Lawrence. But if you’re a veteran player on Underdog, you can use this play! Lawrence gets a favorable matchup against a Bengals team that allows the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. After tonight, they will likely be No. 1, as the three teams below them have all played 12 games already.
Lawrence is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per attempt and has three rushing touchdowns on the season. He has surpassed 15 yards in 8 of 11 games this season. Of the three times he failed to reach 15 yards, two were against division rival Houston, and the other was against the 49ers, who rank ninth best in this category. Stokastic’s NFL Bet Pro tool has Lawrence projected for 15.3 rushing yards, while some of the sharper books are heavy on the higher.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Trevor Lawrence Higher than 14.5 Rushing Yards
Jake Browning H/L 12.65 Fantasy Points
Jake Browning will make his second career start tonight with Joe Burrow out for the season. Browning was meh in his first start against the Steelers last week, throwing for 227 yards, one interception and one touchdown, but still managed to get 12.98 fantasy points. Although the Bengals are 10-point underdogs, Browning actually has a favorable matchup, as the Jaguars allow 20.7 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the third most in the NFL. They rank in the bottom 10 in passing attempts, yards and touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks.
Browning is not Burrow but has the same weapons to rely on with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. With the Bengals likely to be playing from behind tonight, Browning is going to have to throw the ball, resulting in more than 12.65 fantasy points.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Jake Browning Higher Than 12.65 Fantasy Points
Evan Engram H/L 47.5 Receiving Yards
Evan Engram is in a favorable matchup against the Bengals, ranking in the bottom 5 in targets, receptions and yards allowed to the tight end position. They allow 12.3 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the second most in the NFL.
Engram’s 79 targets and 64 receptions rank in the top 5 among tight ends, and he’s played one fewer game than everyone above him. Most books are heavy on the higher for this pick, while some have this at 48.5 or more. His 79 targets lead the team, and I expect Engram to add to that number on his way to 50 plus receiving yards tonight.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Evan Engram Higher Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
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