Commanders at Eagles NFL DFS Picks: Can Jalen Hurts Improve His MVP Case Against Washington On MNF?

Week 10 Monday Night Football pits a struggling Washington Commanders squad trying to get back to .500 against the Philadelphia Eagles, the last remaining undefeated team. On paper it looks like the Commanders will struggle to find the end zone against a fierce Eagles defense, but there is a reason they still play the games.

Heading into NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 10 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Washington Commanders at the Philadelphia Eagles.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 10 MNF | Commanders-Eagles

Washington Commanders: 16.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic fantasy projections clearly do not have much faith in Taylor Heinicke, who ranks ahead of only Arizona Cardinals QB Colt McCoy for the full Week 10 player pool. This is far from a surprise, however, as Philadelphia boasts the second best passing DVOA in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. No quarterback has surpassed 250 yards against the Eagles, who have ceded only eight aerial scores while racking up 12 interceptions.

We know what we are getting with Heinicke, who lost his job when the Commanders brought Carson Wentz into the fold this offseason. Heinicke can run a little, but his arm strength and accuracy can be exploited by opposing defenses now that they have seen enough game film.

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Running Back

J.D. McKissic (neck) has been ruled out for a second consecutive game, and last week we saw rookie Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson share the workload. Robinson started, though Gibson ended up seeing more action in what was essentially a 60-40 snap-share split. In the box score, it was a toss-up, with the rookie getting 13 carries and 44 yards, bringing in his two targets for another six yards.

The veteran had 11 totes for 36 yards and two catches on three looks for 11 yards. Over the past four games, Gibson has found the end zone twice with Robinson scoring once back in Week 6. It is unlikely any other Commanders running back sees the field tonight.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin has played at least 95% of the snaps each of the past six games, culminating in being on the field for every offensive play last week. Curtis Samuel has been working as the second wideout and getting a few snaps out of the backfield. Rookie Jahan Dotson is expected to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out for the last month, which will move Cam Sims down to the fourth wideout with Dyami Brown and Dax Milne maybe working in for a few plays. One of Sims or Brown could be inactive, or it could be Milne, who has been returning punts and kickoffs but could cede those responsibilities to another player.

Tight End

Logan Thomas has been the main tight end when healthy, with John Bates and Armani Rogers working into the mix for around 30-40% of the snaps. Washington’s offensive line woes have them operating out of two-tight end formations around 20% of the time for extra blockers because they do not typically employ a fullback. Each player is live for at least one target, though Thomas has the best chance to approach five if things go his way, while Bates caps out around three opportunities.

Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia has allowed 21 sacks over the past seven games, with Washington recording 18 in the same time frame. The Commanders have seven takeaways, which is the second fewest in the league. The Eagles have three turnovers this season, which is easily the best mark in the land.

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Philadelphia Eagles: 27.25 Points

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts may no longer be the best running quarterback in the league, as Justin Fields followed up his regular-season record of 178 rushing yards last week with another 147 for the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Hurts is still the better passer and is at the helm of an undefeated team, but life sure comes fast. Hurts projects as the third best quarterback this week and will for most, with the top three typically including Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

The Commanders have not been able to defend against the pass this season and have the 25th passing DVOA. Five quarterbacks have multiple-touchdown games against them, though only one has thrown for more than 275 yards. That was Hurts back in Week 3, when he threw for three scores and 340 yards, so there is a path already laid out for tremendous upside tonight.

Running Back

To their credit, the Commanders have done a nice job against opposing running backs, allowing only Derrick Henry (28/102/2) to go over 77 yards. While Philadelphia prefers to run the ball, it does make sense to take to the air out against Washington’s second-ranked passing DVOA. Miles Sanders has done an excellent job consolidating the workload but still has to deal with Hurts stealing red zone carries.

Sanders has 131 carries for 656 yards, with the next closest running back being Kenneth Gainwell, who has 28 attempts for 122 yards. It is much closer in the touchdown category, with Sanders tying Hurts with six, while Gainwell has three on a fraction of the carries. Boston Scott is the third back, but he is unlikely to be on the field for more than a handful of snaps outside of an injury situation or late-game mop-up duty.

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Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith is on the field more than newcomer A.J. Brown, but the latter has a commanding 70 to 53 lead in targets. Brown has been an amazing addition and unlocked the upside potential of Hurts. He can score from anywhere on the field, which allows Smith to operate with single coverage in most situations. Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal each has three total targets over the past two weeks, but on a single-game slate, no stone is left unturned!

Tight End

Dallas Goedert has 50 targets this season, which is just behind Smith and dominates the position, which has eight spread out between Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra and Noah Togiai. Stoll has been on the field for around 40% of the snaps over the past half-dozen games and could luck into a target or two. Goedert warrants consideration at a similar salary to Smith along with a near identical workload.

Defense/Special Teams

Washington has thrown nine interceptions but has lost only two fumbles. Philadelphia leads the NFL with 12 interceptions and 18 total takeaways. The Eagles are averaging just over three sacks per game, which bodes well against the Commanders, who are allowing sacks at a slightly higher rate.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Commanders-Eagles

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

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Week 10 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Commanders-Eagles

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Commanders-Eagles

1. Jalen Hurts: Hurts so good!
2. Dallas Goedert: Steady option, and gamers still do not look to lead tight ends often enough.
3. A.J. Brown: Solid tournament selection in the multiplier slots.
4. Taylor Heinicke: Meh, but still has a shot at 20 fantasy points, and not many players do in a single game.
5. Antonio Gibson: May be wresting the lead role back from the rookie.
6. DeVonta Smith: Flip-flop with Goedert in the event one sees a surge in popularity closer to lock, take the less popular in tournaments and the more popular in “cash” game lineups.
7. Terry McLaurin: The return of Dotson gives the defense someone else to worry about.
8. Miles Sanders: Needs to score from 10 or more yards out, otherwise he may lose out to Hurts. Also could lose mop-up duty as the Eagles want to keep him fresh for the stretch run.
9. Curtis Samuel: Should continue to carve out a role with a half-dozen touches as a receiver or runner.
10. Philadelphia D/ST: Should be in the mix for a half-dozen combined turnovers and sacks.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Commanders-Eagles

1. Jake Elliott: Reigning Pro Bowler has just eight field goal attempts, but 24 PATs.
2. Brian Robinson Jr: The rookie could easily surpass veteran Gibson if he finds pay dirt for the second time this season.
3. Jahan Dotson: No need to rush him back early, but may be a little rusty after the long layoff.
4. Kenneth Gainwell: Proverbial nose for the end zone, best utilized around lineup #20, half that for those with a higher risk tolerance.
5. Joey Slye: Only 11 field goal attempts through nine games and 13 PATs. Not much for distance, making just six of last 11 from 50 or more yards.

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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Commanders-Eagles

1. Jack Stoll: Makes it all come together on DraftKings at $200, deserves consideration in “cash” lineups.
2. Logan Thomas: Secure playing time, but volume is lacking.
3. Boston Scott: Opportunities are sporadic, but he could get the last few drives to himself in mop-up duty.
4. Washington D/ST: Tall order to get a pick six or scoop and score on the road.
5. Quez Watkins: Likely game flow does not favor him this week, also returns kickoffs.
6. Cam Sims: If for some reason Dotson is inactive, Sims becomes interchangeable with Stoll as a discount dandy, depending on which team you need represented on your roster.
7. Zach Pascal: Does just enough to deserve his own line.
8. Armani Rogers: Needs luck to even get a target, another DraftKings $200 minimum salary option.
9. Britain Covey: Returns punts and shares kickoff duties with Watkins.
10. Dax Milne: Main punt returner, shares kickoff duties with Gibson, could be inactive with Dotson back and punt return duties could be reassigned.
11. Dyami Brown, Grant Calcaterra, Cole Turner, Jonathan Williams: Most of this group will be inactive.

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